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The paper provides a comparative analysis of green industrial policies in Brazil and South Africa, focusing on solar photovoltaic (PV) and onshore wind energy. It argues that while market-based mechanisms like auctions attract investment, state-led industrial policies—including localisation requirements and concessional finance—are essential for domestic technological upgrading and job creation. Brazil is highlighted for its relative success in building a domestic wind turbine supply chain through the BNDES and PROINFA, whereas South Africa's progress via the REIPPPP has been hindered by institutional resistance from the state utility Eskom and grid infrastructure bottlenecks. The author concludes that a just transition requires aligning energy procurement with long-term industrial strategies, investing in grid modernization, and leveraging multilateral platforms like BRICS and the G20 to facilitate technology transfer.

The paper examines the challenges South Africa and Brazil face in transitioning to green economies and their shared vulnerability to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). It argues that both nations perceive CBAM as a form of 'green protectionism' that violates WTO non-discrimination principles and the Paris Agreement's principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The authors suggest that South Africa and Brazil can collaborate through BRICS and BASIC to advocate for fairer trade rules, technological support, and the integration of development needs into WTO climate provisions. Domestically, the paper recommends that South Africa accelerate its Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM) and reform its carbon tax, while Brazil should formalise a national carbon pricing regime and enforce its Forest Code to maintain export competitiveness.

The document examines the socio-economic challenges of the energy transition in South Africa and Brazil, focusing on the gap between decarbonisation goals and the actual reskilling of vulnerable workforces. In South Africa, the transition is complicated by a heavy reliance on coal for electricity and high unemployment, while Brazil faces challenges in balancing its clean energy mix with high emissions from agriculture and deforestation. Both nations struggle with structural inequality and the need for robust social protection systems to ensure that the shift to green industries does not exacerbate existing poverty or exclude informal workers.

The paper analyzes how South Africa and Brazil utilize climate financing to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, highlighting the differences between South Africa's coal-dominant economy and Brazil's land-use-driven emissions. It evaluates national mechanisms such as South Africa's carbon tax and Brazil's proposed Emissions Trading Scheme, while advocating for the reform of multilateral development banks to lower the cost of capital for the Global South. The author emphasizes the importance of green taxonomies and central bank risk management in mobilizing private investment and ensuring financial stability during the energy transition.

The report examines the role of South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency in advancing a 'transformational' theory of change for the climate crisis. It emphasizes 'country platforms' as a bottom-up methodology for national transition planning and argues that current global financial structures are a 'non-system' that misallocates capital and imposes an unsustainable cost of capital on developing nations, particularly in Africa. The author proposes a 'monetary architecture' approach to unlock funding by reconfiguring balance sheets, rather than relying solely on market-oriented blended finance or fiscal expansion.

South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency focuses on four key priorities: disaster resilience, debt sustainability for low-income countries, financing just energy transitions, and critical minerals for sustainable development. The presidency aims to elevate 'country platforms' like South Africa's Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) and bring African climate finance concerns to the forefront. The Sustainable Finance Working Group (SFWG) for 2025 is tasked with strengthening the global sustainable finance architecture, scaling up adaptation and just transition finance, and unlocking carbon market potential. The report highlights opportunities for South Africa to enhance follow-up mechanisms for G20 commitments, engage African Union (AU) structures, and coordinate with Brazil ahead of COP30. However, the report notes diplomatic challenges regarding the US presidency's approach to climate multilateralism and the Paris Agreement.

The document argues that while the AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol provides a strategic framework for interoperability, its success depends on member states overcoming 'digital exclusion', characterized by a significant rural-urban divide where rural internet penetration is only 23% compared to 57% in urban areas. To facilitate implementation, the author recommends a tiered approach of 'foundational' and 'catalytic' measures. Foundational steps include investing in broadband, establishing data protection laws, and improving digital literacy. Catalytic steps involve offering incentives for tech startups, supporting local e-commerce platforms, and developing specialized training for MSMEs. The brief specifically suggests that member states amend domestic regulations to allow satellite services like Starlink to mitigate terrestrial connectivity deficits and modernize banking regulations to accommodate fintech. It also warns that the protocol's suggestion to develop rules of origin for digitally delivered services (DDS) departs from the WTO e-commerce moratorium and may be 'costly and prejudicial to businesses'.

The document outlines a strategy for South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency to address the deepening financial crisis in Africa, where debt servicing often exceeds spending on health or education. It critiques the current global governance architecture, noting the IMF's diminished bargaining power and the complexity of modern bondholder-led debt. The author proposes three priorities: establishing general principles for holistic debt restructuring based on norms like 'optimality' and 'responsibility'; utilizing the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (GSDR) to study the failures of the Common Framework and Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI); and addressing the debate between whether African debt is primarily a liquidity or solvency issue to restore access to finance.

The document examines the potential for rechannelling Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from wealthy IMF member states to Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), specifically the African Development Bank (AfDB), to address Africa's annual financing gap of over $400 billion. It details a proposal where SDRs would serve as hybrid capital, allowing the AfDB to leverage funds up to four times on capital markets. The brief identifies significant political and legal barriers, including the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary financing prohibition and the lack of formal commitment from major holders like China, Japan, and the US. It recommends that South Africa's G20 presidency use diplomacy to seek ECB clarification, coordinate a Liquidity Support Agreement (LSA) with bilateral partners, and explore innovative fiscal tools such as SDR bonds or direct allocations to prescribed holders.

African countries face a deepening financial crisis where debt servicing obligations constrain the policy space needed for climate and development goals. The document highlights that total public debt in Africa reached $1.8 trillion in 2022, with 23 countries spending more on debt service than on health or education. To address this, the author suggests that South Africa's G20 presidency should advocate for negotiations that integrate a debtor's financial obligations with its environmental and social commitments, noting that Africa requires $1.3 trillion annually for SDGs and $1.3–1.6 trillion annually until 2030 for climate change impacts.

The document examines the transition of South Africa to a coalition-based national government following the May 2024 elections, where the ANC lost its majority. It argues that for the GNU to be effective, partners must prioritize accountability and service delivery over the retention of power. By analyzing the instability of local coalitions in South Africa and comparing them with experiences in Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, and Western Europe, the brief advocates for the adoption of formal, written coalition agreements to manage ideological tensions and improve governmental stability.

The document examines the decline of voter participation in South Africa, attributing it to a perceived lack of accountability and a disconnect between voting and service delivery. Based on workshops with 309 participants, it suggests moving toward direct representation and enhancing civic education to restore faith in the democratic process.

The document argues that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is essential for reversing the marginalisation of African countries in global trade, with the potential to generate $450 billion in additional income by 2035 and lift 30 million people out of absolute poverty. However, full implementation has been delayed since January 2021 due to resource constraints, debt distress in over 50% of African countries, and fears of tariff revenue losses. To address this, the AfCFTA Secretariat introduced the AfCFTA Implementation Review Mechanism (AFIRM) in July 2024. The author suggests that AFIRM should move away from a narrow focus on compliance and instead adopt the broader, transparency-based approach of the WTO's Trade Policy Review Mechanism (TPRM). The TPRM is credited with enhancing adherence through peer pressure and factual reporting without being a tool for dispute settlement, a model that could reduce resistance among AfCFTA state parties.

President Cyril Ramaphosa accepted the G20 Presidency for South Africa, announcing the theme 'Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability'. He committed to advancing the Sustainable Development Goals and the Pact for the Future, while prioritizing inclusive economic growth, food security, and AI for sustainable development. Ramaphosa emphasized the need to address wealth disparities, specifically noting the lack of sustainable financing for climate action and the burden of national debt in developing countries.

The document argues that carbon markets can fill a critical funding gap for African smallholder farmers, who received only 0.8% of climate finance in 2023. It highlights that soil carbon interventions provide dual benefits of climate mitigation and adaptation by improving soil health, water retention, and crop yields. However, the briefing notes that African agriculture remains underrepresented in carbon markets, with only 12 identified projects across the continent. Barriers include high soil sampling costs, strict evidence requirements for baselines, and a lack of localised research. The author recommends that policymakers avoid 'one-size-fits-all' regulations and instead prioritise projects that deliver non-carbon co-benefits like food security and nutrition.

The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) is a financial market infrastructure designed to enable instant cross-border payments across Africa using local currencies, reducing reliance on foreign currencies like the US dollar and Euro. While supported by the AU and AfCFTA, the system faces significant hurdles, including low awareness—with 39% of business leaders unaware of it—and fragmented regulatory frameworks. Despite these challenges, as of May 2024, 13 African central banks, over 115 commercial banks, and 10 payment switches have connected to the system. The report recommends harmonizing regulations, investing in digital infrastructure, and improving data transparency to unlock the system's potential for economic integration.

The document examines the transition of South Africa to a national coalition government following the May 2024 elections, where the ANC lost its majority. It contrasts the 2024 GNU—born of political necessity—with the 1994 GNU, which was mandatory for reconciliation. The authors analyze the instability of local-level coalitions in South Africa and review coalition models in Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, and Western Europe. The brief concludes that South Africa should adopt formal, written coalition agreements to prioritize governmental accountability and service delivery over the retention of political power.

The COP29 South African Youth Statement outlines five main mandates for climate justice, emphasizing human rights, gender equality, and the needs of marginalized communities. It calls for a shift in climate finance toward grants and debt cancellation for the Global South, the integration of renewable energy into the national grid, and the empowerment of youth and community-based organisations in policymaking. The statement specifically highlights environmental injustices in water sanitation, waste management, and the health impacts of coal mining in Mpumalanga, while advocating for agroecological farming and the regulation of AI and the 'fast-fashion' industry.

The research paper analyzes the withdrawal of the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) from Cabo Delgado on 15 July 2024, arguing that the exit was driven by financial constraints and poor coordination rather than security improvements. It highlights that the insurgency, involving groups like Ahlu Sunnah Waljama’a and linked to ISIS, is fueled by a complex mix of religious extremism, poverty, unemployment, and state violence. The author contends that the withdrawal may have created a security void, as attacks have increased in 2024, and argues that military intervention alone is insufficient without addressing the root governance failures and economic inequalities in Mozambique.

The 2024 BRICS Summit is expected to focus on integrating new members and defining the role of 'partner countries' rather than further expansion. Key economic goals include increasing trade in local currencies to reduce dollar reliance and streamlining payments via the BRICS Cross-Border Payments Initiative. The document highlights opportunities for coordination between BRICS, the G20, and the G7, particularly with Brazil and South Africa holding leadership roles in 2025. On climate, BRICS is expected to reaffirm support for the Paris Agreement and a just transition that allows for the continued use of fossil fuels for energy security, while potentially introducing a new framework for sustainable development and carbon market projects.