Coalitions and the GNU in South Africa: Proposals to Embrace, Pitfalls to Avoid

The document examines the transition of South Africa to a national coalition government following the May 2024 elections, where the ANC lost its majority. It contrasts the 2024 GNU—born of political necessity—with the 1994 GNU, which was mandatory for reconciliation. The authors analyze the instability of local-level coalitions in South Africa and review coalition models in Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, and Western Europe. The brief concludes that South Africa should adopt formal, written coalition agreements to prioritize governmental accountability and service delivery over the retention of political power.

• The 2024 Government of National Unity (GNU) differs from the 1994 version because it was a "product of political necessity in the absence of a clear controlling majority for one party," whereas the 1994 arrangement was mandatory to ensure "continuity, political inclusiveness and racial and ethnic reconciliation."
• Coalition governance at the local level in South Africa has shown a trend toward instability and inefficiency, with partnerships often based on "party-political interests rather than the will of voters," which can lead to "weakened party identity, ineffective local governance and compromised citizen engagement."
• International examples show varying results: Kenya's 2008 GNU was a necessity to stop post-election violence; Lesotho's coalitions were "inherently unstable" due to rushed negotiations; and Malawi's experience has been "inconsistent and unstable," sometimes leading to the sidelining of leaders.
• Western European models are characterized by "institutionalised conflict management mechanisms" and the use of formal, often lengthy coalition agreements, such as in Germany, to manage ideological tensions.
• The authors recommend that the GNU prioritize "accountability and effectiveness, rather than retaining power," and suggest that "formal coalition agreements should be considered a standard feature of coalition governance" to increase stability.

APA

Bosman, I., Rubidge, L., & Gruzd, S. (2024). Coalitions and the GNU in South Africa: Proposals to Embrace, Pitfalls to Avoid. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/SAIIA_AGDP_PB-302_CoalitionsInGNU.pdf

Chicago

Bosman, Isabel, Laura Rubidge, and Steven Gruzd. Coalitions and the GNU in South Africa: Proposals to Embrace, Pitfalls to Avoid. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2024. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/SAIIA_AGDP_PB-302_CoalitionsInGNU.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bosman |first1=Isabel |last2=Rubidge |first2=Laura |last3=Gruzd |first3=Steven |title=Coalitions and the GNU in South Africa: Proposals to Embrace, Pitfalls to Avoid |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=November 2024 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/SAIIA_AGDP_PB-302_CoalitionsInGNU.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bosman2024coalitions, author = {Bosman, Isabel and Rubidge, Laura and Gruzd, Steven}, title = {{Coalitions and the GNU in South Africa: Proposals to Embrace, Pitfalls to Avoid}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/SAIIA_AGDP_PB-302_CoalitionsInGNU.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }