Search Climate Insights Directory

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the Regulation of Foreign Military Assistance Bill [B54-97], approved by the South African Cabinet on 30 April 1997. While the authors support the goal of preventing South African citizens and companies from providing unauthorized military services abroad, they argue the Bill's scope is overly broad and grants excessive discretionary power to the Minister of Water and Environmental Affairs, thereby undermining parliamentary oversight.

The document argues that the end of the Cold War did not lead to a global era of peace but instead created a turbulent international environment wracked by conflict. It proposes eight clusters of insecurity that threaten national, regional, and global security, intending to serve as a catalyst for debate on security policy formulation in Southern Africa and for the South African National Defence Force.

War veterans in Angola are threatening to disrupt upcoming general elections because they have not received promised monthly pensions, having only received a one-time payment of approximately 500 USD. The document highlights the risk of violent government crackdowns and the potential for veterans to engage in criminal activity due to poor social reintegration. This is framed as part of a wider African trend where ineffective DDR processes, often based on a failing UN framework, leave former combatants without civilian skills, thereby threatening regional stability.

This document is an introductory text for Monograph 46, which compiles papers from a November 1999 conference in Pretoria, South Africa, titled "Building stability in Africa: The challenge for the next millennium." The conference was part of a larger international project, "Challenges of peacekeeping and peace support: Into the 21st century," coordinated by the National Defence College in Stockholm to explore more effective ways of managing regional conflicts and peace support operations.

The text defines armour as a conceptual approach to combat emphasizing firepower, mobility, shock effect, and versatility. It argues that military employment and budgets are political decisions, noting that the 'post-Cold-War phase' has led to global defence budget cuts—termed the 'peace dividend'—and a shift in military operations from bipolar confrontation toward peacekeeping and peace enforcement.

US and UK envoys visited Mogadishu to discuss the end of Somalia's transition period and allegations of corruption within the Transitional Federal Government. A World Bank report cited corruption totaling US$ 130 million, including the misuse of donor funding. The US government reaffirmed its intent to use targeted sanctions, such as travel bans and asset freezes, against those sabotaging the peace process. Additionally, the US has offered a US$ 33 million bounty for seven Al-Shabaab leaders to potentially induce internal divisions within the group.

The document reports that Malawi is on track to meet five of the eight Millennium Development Goals, attributing this progress to the alignment of the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS) with the MDGs. Key successes include a shift from being a net food importer to a net exporter through targeted fertilizer and seed subsidies, as well as improvements in child health and immunization services. The paper emphasizes the role of political will and the contextualization of global goals into national poverty reduction strategies, while calling for development partners to better integrate their programming into Malawi's national frameworks.

South Africa is developing a sovereign maritime domain awareness (MDA) architecture to protect its 'island economy' and secure key shipping routes. Given its geostrategic location and extensive maritime zones, the country requires a more coordinated strategic approach to maritime surveillance to enhance security and protect interests both within and beyond its Exclusive Economic Zone.

This research paper examines the role of civilian stakeholders—specifically women, children, refugees, and internally displaced people—within the peace process of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, arguing that treating war victims as stakeholders is necessary to end cycles of violence and marginalisation.

The document serves as an introduction to an assessment of the 2010 NPT Review Conference's final document. It aims to determine if the outcomes represent a significant step toward the total elimination of nuclear weapons, specifically analyzing these results through an African lens.

The document analyzes the anti-corruption framework in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2003 to 2006, assessing the effectiveness of existing laws and institutions. It identifies factors contributing to their success or failure and highlights gaps in national legislation relative to international legal instruments. The monograph concludes by proposing priority measures to improve the legal and institutional framework for combating corruption.

The paper critically examines the African Union's (AU) approach to Unconstitutional Changes of Government (UCG), focusing on military coups d'état. It identifies shortcomings in the current policy's rationale and effectiveness and advocates for the ratification of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance to create a legally binding framework that prevents the auto-legitimisation of coup leaders through superficial elections.

The document assesses the African Standby Force (ASF) within the African Union's peace and security framework, concluding that the ASF's operational capabilities and contribution to managing complex conflicts will remain modest in the short to medium term due to logistical and financial constraints.

The briefing examines the conflict between national security and the right to privacy in South Africa, specifically focusing on the use of unlegislated intrusive measures by intelligence services. It criticizes the General Intelligence Laws Amendment Bill (GILAB) for failing to incorporate recommendations from the Ministerial Review Commission on Intelligence and for not providing sufficient safeguards against the abuse of surveillance powers.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the intersection of gender and migration in South Africa, arguing that gender-neutral policy approaches increase vulnerabilities for women who migrate independently to meet economic needs or flee war.

The analysis uses the International Futures (IFs) model and 2011 National Census data to simulate three population scenarios for South Africa by 2030 based on varying levels of in-migration: 64.4 million (rapidly declining), 66.4 million (stable), and 68.8 million (rapidly increasing). These projections are higher and exhibit greater variance than those in the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030. Extended analysis to 2050 indicates further increasing uncertainty for national planners. Provincial forecasts using the IFs Base Case also exceed NDP figures, particularly in the Eastern Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Western Cape, with implications for public policy in healthcare, education, employment, and service delivery.

The election of Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as AU Commission Chairperson ended a 2012 electoral deadlock and signaled a potential move beyond colonial linguistic divisions and toward gender equality. However, the new leadership faces significant hurdles, including the need to implement existing AU and OAU policies, improve the quality and quantity of Commission staff, and reduce the organization's dependence on external funding from the 'Friends of the AU'.

The document examines the rapid rate of urbanisation across Africa, highlighting that while urban growth can drive economic diversification, unplanned growth in developing economies often leads to slums and infrastructure stress. It focuses on Nigeria, where rapid urban population growth has outpaced planning, resulting in high slum residency and significant shortages in housing, water, and sanitation. The briefing notes that Nigeria's inability to manage this growth and integrate its large informal economy limits national economic contributions and increases the risk of political and social instability.

The document examines disarmament as a critical component of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) efforts within multinational peace support operations in Africa. It highlights the necessity of assessing local dynamics and sub-regional contexts to address insecurities, using the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) as an example of how national crises spark regional instability. The text reviews the implementation of disarmament programmes in several African nations, noting that while success rates vary, Sierra Leone provides a recent example of successful conclusion. The monograph aims to provide a common framework of analysis by comparing the differing situations in Sierra Leone and the DRC to establish basic requirements for planning and implementing future disarmament programmes in Africa.

The document calls for a review of Guinea-Bissau's 1991 Framework Law on Political Parties, which it states has not been implemented since its adoption. Proposed reforms aim to strengthen the regulation of political activities, ensure gender equity in political positions, and establish a controlled system for public party funding to modernize political practices.