Search Climate Insights Directory

The report finds that a three-day extreme heat event in Uttar Pradesh from June 14-16, 2023, was made at least two times more likely by human-caused climate change, with some areas seeing a three-fold increase in likelihood. The event resulted in at least 34 fatalities in Ballia and led to school closures in Bihar. The analysis highlights that the combination of extreme heat and high humidity increased the severity of the event, following a previous humid heat wave in April 2023 that was made over 30 times more likely by climate change.

This executive summary describes the States’ Electricity Transition (SET) Scoring system developed by Ember to evaluate the electricity transition across 16 Indian states, which represent 90% of India's annual power requirement. The analysis focuses on four dimensions: decarbonisation, power system performance, power ecosystem readiness, and policies and political commitments. While some states like Karnataka show strong performance across all metrics, others, particularly Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, require significant improvements in decarbonisation and system performance to meet national targets.

As of August 2022, India had installed 116 GW of renewable energy, achieving 66% of its 175 GW target for December 2022. While solar power is driving growth, with 9.8 GW installed between January and August 2022, wind energy installations have slowed. Progress is highly uneven across states; Gujarat, Telangana, Rajasthan, and Karnataka have met their 2022 targets, while Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh account for 61% of the national target shortfall. To reach the 2030 target of 450 GW, India must increase its monthly installation rate to 3.7 GW, which is 2.5 times the average rate seen in the first eight months of 2022.

As of March 2022, India had installed 110 GW of renewable energy (RE) capacity, representing 63% of its 175 GW target for December 2022. Progress is highly uneven across states; while Telangana, Rajasthan, Karnataka, and Andaman and Nicobar have surpassed their targets, 27 states and union territories have achieved less than 50% of their goals. Five states—Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu—account for two-thirds of the national shortfall. Recent growth has been heavily concentrated in Rajasthan and Gujarat, which together provided 73% of new RE capacity between October 2021 and March 2022. To meet the 2030 target of 450 GW RE, India requires an average annual addition of 42.5 GW.

Uttar Pradesh is lagging behind other high-demand Indian states in renewable energy adoption, with only 30% of its 2022 capacity target achieved by October 2021. The state remains heavily dependent on coal, which accounts for approximately 90% of in-state generation, leaving it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and high costs. IEEFA modelling suggests that if the state meets its 2030 target of 23.5GW of solar, solar power could meet the majority of future electricity demand growth. However, progress is hindered by the financial instability of state-owned distribution companies (Discoms), characterized by high AT&C losses and expensive long-term thermal power purchase agreements. The report recommends retiring old coal plants, expanding distributed solar, and utilizing open market platforms to improve the financial viability of the electricity sector.

The document outlines a framework for the sustainable deployment of solar irrigation in India, focusing on the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus. It provides detailed guidance across five key areas: inter-departmental coordination, financing and affordability, beneficiary targeting, infrastructure support, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E). The guide emphasizes the need to protect groundwater resources, support small and marginal farmers, and transition away from high-subsidy models through innovative financing and ownership structures.

The document details updates to six specific energy subsidies in India, covering electric buses, energy conservation, regional fuel support, natural gas infrastructure, and hydrocarbon research. It provides financial data from FY 2014 to FY 2020, highlighting a significant increase in the cost of concessional GST for electric buses and substantial spending on the Phulpur Dhamra Haldia Pipeline Project and the National Seismic Programme.

Direct tariff electricity subsidies in India rose 32% between FY 2016 and FY 2019, reaching INR 110,391 crore in FY 2019. The report finds that the Ujjwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) scheme has largely failed to improve the financial health of distribution companies (DISCOMs), as 24 of 31 states and union territories reported revenue gaps in FY 2019 and only 6 met the target of reducing aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) losses to 15%. Furthermore, no state adhered to the National Tariff Policy's target range for billing consumers relative to the average cost of supply. Subsidy allocation is heavily skewed, with agricultural consumers receiving 75% of total subsidies, while transparency remains low, with only 13 states and union territories clearly reporting subsidy data.

The report finds that electricity subsidies in India are the largest form of energy support, with direct tariff subsidies totaling INR 110,391 crore in FY 2019. Despite the UDAY bailout scheme, DISCOM finances have generally worsened, characterized by increasing average costs of supply (ACoS) and persistent revenue gaps. The analysis reveals significant transparency issues, with discrepancies between Power Finance Corporation (PFC) reports and state regulatory orders. Subsidies are heavily skewed toward agricultural (75%) and domestic (20%) consumers, often without clear consumption limits, leading to regressive distribution where higher-income households capture a disproportionate share of benefits. The report recommends improving data standardization, exploring targeted subsidies via Direct Benefit Transfer for Power (DBT-P), and prioritizing billing and collection efficiency to reduce aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) losses.

The document examines the tension between the need for electricity tariff reforms to save insolvent distribution companies (DISCOMs) and the decreased ability of low-income Indian households to pay for energy following the COVID-19 lockdown. It proposes shifting subsidies away from better-off households, implementing direct cash transfers (DBT-P), and improving data collection on consumer willingness to pay. The briefing highlights that while technical solutions like simplifying tariff slabs exist, political hurdles at the state level remain a primary barrier to reform.

The document details a project in Campierganj, India, where the Gorakhpur Environmental Action Group (GEAG) implements climate-smart agriculture training. By focusing on gender-responsive approaches and empowering women—who comprise over 40% of the local agricultural workforce—the initiative has improved crop yields, increased women's income, and enhanced their social standing and leadership roles within the community.

The document examines the challenges of implementing climate-resilient development in the peri-urban areas of Uttar Pradesh, India, where rapid urbanisation and climate change are impacting small-scale farmers. It argues that current urban policies, such as the Smart Cities Mission, treat populations as homogeneous and fail to address the specific vulnerabilities of women and low-income groups. The text identifies structural governance failures, a lack of gender-disaggregated data, and the siloed management of urban and rural areas as key barriers. To foster resilience, it recommends targeted interventions for women, the strengthening of community institutions to overcome governance constraints, and the sensitisation of urban local bodies to gender issues.

The document examines the vulnerability of agriculture-based livelihoods to climate hazards in peri-urban Gorakhpur and argues that climate-resilient development requires gender-responsive strategies. It identifies structural governance gaps, such as the lack of gender sensitisation in urban local bodies and the siloed management of urban, peri-urban, and rural areas, as barriers to inclusive resilience. The report advocates for a two-pronged strategy: sensitising policy-makers and planners while engaging diverse social groups, particularly women, through participatory methods and community-based institutions to ensure their needs and priorities are addressed in climate-compatible development.

The policy brief examines a pilot project in Mokoloki, Nigeria, where a privately owned solar minigrid shares existing distribution infrastructure with a utility to provide reliable power to 'undergrid' customers. It proposes that India, which faces similar challenges with high technical and commercial losses (up to 40%) and unreliable rural supply, could adopt this model to enhance last-mile service and financial viability for distribution companies.

The document details the financial distress caused by COVID-19 in India's electricity sector, specifically the revenue losses of DISCOMs and the payment delays affecting power producers. It outlines a stimulus package of INR 90,000 crore for DISCOMs and lists specific loan terms from PFC-REC, including a 10-year loan period and requirements for digital payment and smart meter installation. The briefing also highlights best practices in billing and collection adopted by states like Odisha, Gujarat, Bihar, and Rajasthan to mitigate losses.

The report argues that flexibility needs in India's electricity system are growing faster than energy demand, particularly under high renewable energy scenarios. It finds that a balanced portfolio of demand-side flexibility, powerplant upgrades, and energy storage can reduce total system costs by 5% to 8% and carbon emissions by 8% to 12% compared to a base case. The analysis highlights regional disparities, noting that states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu face higher curtailment risks, and emphasizes the need for updated market designs, business models, and infrastructure to unlock these flexibility options.

The report argues that India's flexibility needs are growing faster than its energy demand, which could impede the deployment of renewable energy if not addressed. It identifies three primary flexibility resources: demand-side response (e.g., agricultural pumping, air conditioning, and industrial loads), improved thermal and hydroelectric powerplant operations, and energy storage (specifically lithium-ion batteries and pumped hydro). The analysis demonstrates that a 'balanced portfolio' combining these resources can reduce total system electricity costs by 5% to 8% and carbon emissions by 8% to 12% compared to a base case. Regional analysis shows that states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu face more acute ramping and seasonal flexibility challenges due to high solar and wind penetration, while Uttar Pradesh could potentially export flexibility. The report concludes that achieving these goals requires significant reforms in market design, data collection, infrastructure, and business models.

The report evaluates Nepal's future energy options, finding that while hydropower remains central, integrating wind, solar, and battery storage can enhance system flexibility and support river conservation. Using the SWITCH model, the study demonstrates that strategic conservation of rivers, such as the Karnali basin, can be achieved with minimal impact on overall system costs. It also highlights the risks of relying solely on hydropower, noting that such a strategy increases costs by 10.7% and requires significant overbuilding of capacity to meet dry-season demand. The analysis further indicates that imports from India are critical for affordability, as eliminating them would increase system costs by approximately 45%. Additionally, the report explores regional equity and export strategies, suggesting that a diversified energy mix can support social goals and potential profitability if export prices exceed 30 $/MWh.

The research uses an electronic survey of 1,414 urban Indian respondents to analyze what motivates hostile attitudes and the approval of violence in the Hindu-Muslim conflict. The study finds that security concerns for the future are the strongest predictors of hostility, while positive personal experiences with the out-group correlate with reduced hostility. In contrast, past experiences of violence do not systematically perpetuate hostility, and family histories of forced relocation are robustly associated with a non-adversarial outlook. Using Finite Mixture Models, the author determines that 'bottom-up' mechanisms (security concerns and prejudice) account for 82% of the sample, suggesting that individual-level dynamics are more influential than top-down elite manipulation for the majority of the population.

The report argues that shifting subsidies from kerosene to off-grid solar is economically viable and socially beneficial for India's rural poor. It details three primary subsidy pathways—targeting households, manufacturers, or financial institutions—and provides a framework for administration, funding, and beneficiary targeting to achieve '24x7 Power for All'.