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The document examines how former guerrilla movements in East Africa—specifically in Uganda, Rwanda, Eritrea, and Southern Sudan—have transitioned into state power. It argues that the authoritarian, centralized, and ruthless nature of guerrilla warfare is fundamentally incompatible with democratic governance, leading to regimes characterized by 'enlightened despotism' or total totalitarianism. The author analyzes the role of pre-existing civil society, ethnic tensions, and the personalization of power in shaping these outcomes, contrasting these cases with Somaliland's successful transition to a multi-party democracy.

The research finds that the location of natural resources relative to the conflict zone is critical to determining conflict severity. Gemstone mining and hydrocarbon production within a conflict zone are strongly associated with higher total combat deaths, with secessionist conflicts in hydrocarbon-rich regions being the most severe. Conversely, drug cultivation in the conflict zone and hydrocarbon production located outside the conflict zone are associated with lower combat deaths and reduced conflict intensity. The study concludes that resources influence severity by altering the incentives and organizational structures of both rebel groups and the state.

This briefing from the Institute for Security Studies evaluates the fragile implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan as of May 2007. It details significant failures in security arrangements, the lack of a functioning population census, and the political tensions between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) ahead of planned national elections.

The document examines the SPLA's efforts to disarm civilian populations in South Sudan following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). It focuses on the violent disarmament of the Lou Nuer in Jonglei State, which resulted in significant casualties and looting, and contrasts this with a more peaceful process in Akobo. The author argues that the SPLA's approach was dominated by a militarist orientation and a desire to secure the south before confronting the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) in oil-producing borderlands. The paper also criticizes the United Nations for its failure to proactively manage internal disarmament and its tendency to ignore human rights abuses in the region.

The National Chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs assesses South Africa's role as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council in 2007. The statement critiques the tension between South Africa's aspirational moral authority and the 'realpolitik' of global diplomacy, specifically citing failures to address human rights violations in Zimbabwe. It advocates for a shift from state security to human security and calls for the development of indigenous African research capacity to shape the continent's policy agendas.

The document examines the state of Sudan's transition following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). While noting security gains such as the establishment of UNMIS and the Joint Defence Board, it highlights severe risks to the peace process. Central to these is the unresolved demarcation of the Abyei boundary, which is viewed as a potential 'flashpoint' for renewed war due to oil interests and tribal tensions between the Ngok Dinka and Misseriya. The report also notes that the death of Dr. John Garang weakened the 'New Sudan' vision of pluralism, leaving the SPLM more inclined toward secession and the NCP increasingly dominated by security and petroleum elites. Further instability is noted in Darfur and the Eastern Beja region, where marginalized groups feel excluded by the NCP-SPLM power-sharing arrangement.

The document argues that the IGAD peace process in Sudan is undermined by a lack of trust between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the SPLM/A, systemic failures in monitoring security agreements, and the GoS's use of proxy militias to maintain influence. It highlights specific breaches of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in the Shilluk Kingdom and Western Upper Nile, where civilian abuses and cattle looting occurred. The author concludes that sustainable peace requires a democratic transformation of the Sudanese state to address root grievances, rather than focusing solely on security maintenance.

The South Sudan Defence Force (SSDF) is a fragmented coalition of militias and former SPLM/A fighters that provides critical security for Sudan's oil fields and government-held towns in the south. Despite its strategic importance, the SSDF was omitted from the September 2003 Framework Agreement on Security Arrangements, which recognized only the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the SPLM/A. This exclusion, combined with the GoS's policy of dividing southern forces and the SPLM/A's reluctance to acknowledge the SSDF's military capacity, threatens the viability of the peace process. The report highlights ongoing violence in Western Upper Nile and among the Shilluk community as evidence of the instability caused by the lack of south-south reconciliation.

The paper argues that small arms demand among African youth is driven by a combination of social, economic, and political exclusion. It contends that current international policies focus too heavily on the supply side of arms proliferation, neglecting the 'demand triggers' such as poverty, state failure, and the destruction of social infrastructures. By analyzing contexts ranging from child soldiering in Sierra Leone and Uganda to urban gang violence in South Africa and militia recruitment in Somalia, the authors demonstrate how the absence of basic rights and services transforms weapons into tools for survival, identity, and empowerment.

The Harare Declaration, adopted during the first African Conference on Debt and Development (AfCoDD) in August 2021, calls for a systemic overhaul of the global debt architecture to address the vulnerabilities of African nations. It highlights how the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated poverty and debt burdens, potentially pushing 39 million Africans into extreme poverty. The document criticizes the current system for prioritizing creditor interests over social and environmental justice, noting a shift toward commercial bonds and a lack of transparency in debt contraction. To counter this, the declaration proposes the creation of an African Monitoring and Control Mechanism, a Monetary Fund, and an African Bank. It further advocates for a feminist approach to macroeconomics, a green recovery aligned with the AU's Agenda 2063, and the possibility of collective debt default to break the cycle of neoliberal dependency.

The African Forum and Network on Debt and Development (AFRODAD) conducted various capacity-building initiatives, policy advocacy, and institutional partnerships in 2024 to address Africa's public debt burden, reform the global financial architecture, and promote sustainable debt management.

The document examines how rising debt burdens in Africa lead to austerity measures that compromise basic human rights, such as health and education. It highlights the success of previous debt relief initiatives like HIPC and MDRI while calling for a human rights-based approach to current debt management and the revamping of the G20 Common Framework.

The document examines resource-backed loans (RBLs) as a tool for financing infrastructure in resource-rich developing nations, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. While RBLs can unlock funding and reduce corruption by bypassing government control of funds through special purpose vehicles, they often lead to unsustainable debt, lack of transparency, and unfair terms that favour lenders. The brief recommends integrating RBLs into public procurement systems, increasing transparency, and utilizing expert negotiators to protect national interests.

The document highlights the immense potential of superhot rock geothermal energy in South Sudan, noting that just 1% of its estimated resource could provide 240 GW of capacity, far exceeding the country's 2021 electricity consumption of 581 GWh and its 2030 NDC goal of 2,729.5 MW of renewables. It argues that this technology offers a low land-use footprint, provides reliable 24/7 power, and could foster economic growth and job creation, although it is unlikely to reach commercial scale in time for 2030 targets.

The document argues that the LAPSSET project violates Kenyan constitutional and international legal obligations. It highlights failures in meaningful participation and access to information, which infringe upon the right to development. The amici assert that the project risks causing environmental degradation that would violate rights to adequate housing, water, food, and health. Furthermore, it claims the project would lead to unlawful forced evictions and harm the rights of the Lamu people as indigenous/tribal peoples. Finally, it argues that the project threatens the cultural and natural heritage of Lamu Old Town, a UNESCO World Heritage site.

The report argues that climate change and armed conflict act as mutually reinforcing drivers of harm, creating a polycrisis that disproportionately affects vulnerable populations. It highlights how climate change serves as a 'threat multiplier' by exacerbating resource scarcity and instability, while military activities contribute significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation. The document emphasizes the resulting collapse of health systems and the emergence of infectious diseases in conflict zones. It calls for integrated climate, health, and peacebuilding strategies, including a transition to renewable energy and greater military accountability for emissions, to break this cycle of harm.

The document outlines the progress of the Sharm el-Sheikh joint work on implementation of agriculture and food security (SSJA) following SB62, where a draft was adopted without objection. It highlights a divide between the G77, China, and LDCs—who prioritize food security, adaptation for smallholders, and non-conditional finance—and developed nations like the EU, UK, and Australia, who favor market-linked mechanisms and climate-smart agriculture. The briefing notes that while parties recognize the need to align agriculture finance with climate goals, significant funding gaps remain as they prepare for COP30 in Belém.

The document examines the 'hunger-climate-conflict nexus,' where food insecurity acts as a 'threat multiplier' for instability. It argues that while military forces have historically played ad-hoc support roles in humanitarian aid, the increasing frequency of climate-driven food crises necessitates a shift in military training, doctrine, and interagency coordination. The author highlights barriers to this transition, including the risk of 'over-securitisation' and existing institutional silos between defence and development agencies, while specifically noting the implications for the Irish Defence Forces regarding peacekeeping and domestic disaster response.

The report examines the financial lives of refugees in Uganda, focusing on the settlements of Nakivale, Bidibidi, Palorinya, and the capital, Kampala. It highlights a significant shift from regular employment to self-employment, with the share of refugees in regular jobs dropping from 25% in their home countries to 6% in Uganda. The average monthly income for refugees is 160,000 UGX, with Kampala having the highest median (205,000 UGX) and Palorinya the lowest (90,417 UGX). The study notes a strong adoption of new financial tools, specifically mobile money (increasing from 7% to 30%) and Accumulating Savings and Credit Associations (ASCAs). Women have shown significant economic progress, with their median monthly earnings nearly tripling from 46,000 UGX to 130,000 UGX. The report also identifies critical vulnerabilities, such as the high cost of charcoal and limited access to medical care, with 20% of refugees unable to afford necessary doctors or medicine.

The report analyzes social protection as a tool for climate resilience, highlighting its ability to provide shock-responsive support, facilitate sustainable natural resource management, and cushion the impacts of low-carbon transitions. It identifies a gap in long-term structural adaptation and notes that while multilateral climate funds are increasingly engaging with social protection, integration remains fragmented and often prioritizes project-based interventions over systemic strengthening.