Climate change, armed conflict, and global public health a reinforcing cycle of harm

The report argues that climate change and armed conflict act as mutually reinforcing drivers of harm, creating a polycrisis that disproportionately affects vulnerable populations. It highlights how climate change serves as a 'threat multiplier' by exacerbating resource scarcity and instability, while military activities contribute significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation. The document emphasizes the resulting collapse of health systems and the emergence of infectious diseases in conflict zones. It calls for integrated climate, health, and peacebuilding strategies, including a transition to renewable energy and greater military accountability for emissions, to break this cycle of harm.

• Climate change and armed conflict converge into a 'polycrisis' where they interact and amplify each other, creating significant threats to global public health, particularly for refugees, asylum seekers, internally displaced persons, women, children, older adults, and Indigenous communities.
• Military activities are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, estimated at approximately 5.5% of global emissions, yet they are largely excluded from international climate accountability mechanisms.
• Armed conflict severely disrupts infectious disease surveillance and vaccination programs, facilitating the spread of diseases such as cholera, COVID-19, tuberculosis, and Ebola, as seen in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
• Climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' by intensifying pre-existing vulnerabilities, straining governance, and aggravating competition for scarce resources, which can increase the risk of armed conflict in fragile settings.
• The destruction of critical infrastructure during conflict, such as WASH facilities and energy systems, leads to severe public health risks; for example, military strikes on fuel depots near Tehran caused 'black rain' consisting of toxic pollutants.
• Global dependence on fossil fuels creates structural vulnerabilities and economic shocks during conflicts, as seen in the Philippines, where a 95% increase in fuel prices led to a national energy emergency.
• Post-conflict reconstruction has a substantial carbon footprint; for instance, the projected reconstruction of infrastructure in Ukraine over 10 years is estimated to generate 741 MtCO₂, a 310% increase over pre-conflict annual emissions.
• The rise of AI and digital disinformation complicates humanitarian responses and increases energy demand and CO₂ emissions, while AI use in warfare may undermine international humanitarian law.
• Investment in renewable energy can support peace and stability in conflict-affected or refugee-hosting areas, exemplified by the Za’atari Refugee Camp's solar plant which supplies clean energy to approximately 80,000 refugees.

APA

Gilmour, R. (n.d.). Climate change, armed conflict, and global public health a reinforcing cycle of harm. Global Climate and Health Alliance. https://climateandhealthalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/GCHA_Report-Climate-Conflict-and-Health-low-rez.pdf

Chicago

Gilmour, Rebecca. Climate change, armed conflict, and global public health a reinforcing cycle of harm. Global Climate and Health Alliance, n.d. https://climateandhealthalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/GCHA_Report-Climate-Conflict-and-Health-low-rez.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gilmour |first1=Rebecca |title=Climate change, armed conflict, and global public health a reinforcing cycle of harm |publisher=Global Climate and Health Alliance |url=https://climateandhealthalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/GCHA_Report-Climate-Conflict-and-Health-low-rez.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gilmourndclimate, author = {Gilmour, Rebecca}, title = {{Climate change, armed conflict, and global public health a reinforcing cycle of harm}}, institution = {Global Climate and Health Alliance}, url = {https://climateandhealthalliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/GCHA_Report-Climate-Conflict-and-Health-low-rez.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }