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The report assesses Myanmar's natural capital, focusing on four key ecosystem services: sediment retention for water quality, dry-season water availability, flood risk reduction, and coastal protection. Using InVEST models and climate projections, it identifies critical areas where natural ecosystems support human populations and infrastructure. The findings indicate that while the volume of services (such as sediment retention) will likely change due to increased rainfall under climate change, the geographic 'hotspots' of these services are expected to remain stable. The report emphasizes the overlap between these service-providing areas and Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), arguing that protecting these synergies is vital for both human resilience and wildlife conservation. It specifically highlights the Tanintharyi region as an example of where infrastructure projects, like the Dawei road, could threaten critical natural capital.

The author uses the 'Indian pattern' of communal violence to hypothesize that Myanmar's 2015 elections may trigger anti-Muslim riots and a resurgence of ethnic armed struggle. The paper argues that political elites, particularly the USDP and the military (Tatmadaw), may exploit religious and ethnic cleavages to maintain power or justify military intervention. It suggests short-term measures like postponing census results and long-term structural reforms such as federalism and proportional representation to mitigate these risks.

The report examines how the jade industry in northern Myanmar, particularly in Kachin and northern Shan states, is intertwined with armed conflict. It asserts that military elites and their cronies maintain control over high-value mines to secure billions of dollars in profits, which incentivizes continued fighting and undermines the efforts of the civilian-led government to establish peace. The document highlights the displacement of approximately 100,000 people since 2011 and the marginalization of local communities who suffer from environmental degradation and human rights abuses while the wealth is extracted by powerful networks. It concludes that a sustainable peace requires transparent management of natural resources and a fair distribution of jade profits.

The document examines the peace process in Myanmar from the perspectives of the government, the Army, non-state armed groups (NSAGs), and civil society. It identifies the current reform period under President Thein Sein as a critical window of opportunity but warns that the process is fragile due to a lack of trust in the Myanmar Army and the continuation of conflict in northern regions. The author argues for a 'deepening' of the process to include conflict-affected communities and a 'broadening' to address structural political issues rather than just security ceasefires. The paper concludes by proposing a 'framework agreement' to facilitate multilateral discussions on constitutional reform, land rights, and resource management.