Prospects for Peace in Myanmar: Opportunities and Threats

The document examines the peace process in Myanmar from the perspectives of the government, the Army, non-state armed groups (NSAGs), and civil society. It identifies the current reform period under President Thein Sein as a critical window of opportunity but warns that the process is fragile due to a lack of trust in the Myanmar Army and the continuation of conflict in northern regions. The author argues for a 'deepening' of the process to include conflict-affected communities and a 'broadening' to address structural political issues rather than just security ceasefires. The paper concludes by proposing a 'framework agreement' to facilitate multilateral discussions on constitutional reform, land rights, and resource management.

• The current political opening under President Thein Sein represents the most significant opportunity to resolve Myanmar's ethnic conflicts since the 1962 military coup, though its success is contingent on the government addressing long-standing political issues and ending hostilities in Kachin and Shan States.
• There is a significant disconnect between the government's peace negotiators and the Myanmar Army, with the latter often failing to follow the peace agenda and continuing aggressive actions even after ceasefires are agreed.
• The peace process is currently too narrow, focusing primarily on elite-level negotiations between the government and non-state armed groups (NSAGs); it must be deepened to include civil society, ethnic political parties, and conflict-affected communities to be sustainable.
• Government representatives have mistakenly framed the root cause of ethnic conflict as economic underdevelopment, whereas minority communities prioritise self-determination and human rights.
• Non-state armed groups face a strategic choice: engage with the current reform-minded government to avoid marginalisation or wait for a future democratic government, which may have more legitimacy but less incentive to offer concessions.
• Large-scale infrastructure and extractive projects in ethnic areas, such as the Dawei project in the south and the Shwe Gas pipeline in the west, pose significant risks of land-grabbing and environmental damage, potentially undermining peace.
• The author proposes a 'framework agreement' to move beyond simple ceasefires toward a substantial political discourse, involving working groups on constitutional reform, land rights, language policy, and security sector reform.

APA

South, A. (n.d.). Prospects for Peace in Myanmar: Opportunities and Threats. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/eb31f025-3b82-4016-bd41-347c252e7e31/South-Prospects-for-Peace-in-Myanmar-PRIO-Paper-2012.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

South, Ashley. Prospects for Peace in Myanmar: Opportunities and Threats. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/eb31f025-3b82-4016-bd41-347c252e7e31/South-Prospects-for-Peace-in-Myanmar-PRIO-Paper-2012.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=South |first1=Ashley |title=Prospects for Peace in Myanmar: Opportunities and Threats |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/eb31f025-3b82-4016-bd41-347c252e7e31/South-Prospects-for-Peace-in-Myanmar-PRIO-Paper-2012.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southndprospects, author = {South, Ashley}, title = {{Prospects for Peace in Myanmar: Opportunities and Threats}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/eb31f025-3b82-4016-bd41-347c252e7e31/South-Prospects-for-Peace-in-Myanmar-PRIO-Paper-2012.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }