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SADC and the Abuja Declaration: Honouring the Pledge
SADC member states generally struggle to meet the 2001 Abuja Declaration pledge to allocate 15% of national budgets to healthcare, with an average annual allocation of 5.3%. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted critical gaps in healthcare infrastructure, drug supplies, and professional staffing, while simultaneously straining regional economies. To bridge funding gaps amidst declining GDP and high external debt, the paper recommends establishing a SADC regional healthcare fund backed by the African Union, forming public-private partnerships, improving domestic tax compliance, and involving civil society organisations to ensure transparency in health financing.
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Document type: Research paper
SADC e-Mobility Outlook: Accelerating Low Carbon Transport Futures
The document assesses the transition to low-carbon transport in the SADC region, focusing on the synergy between e-mobility and the power sector. Using the South Africa TIMES (SATIM) model, it compares four scenarios: Fossil-Car, Fossil-Efficiency, Electric-Car, and Eco-Mobility. The analysis finds that while modal shifts (road-to-rail and transit-oriented development) significantly reduce energy demand, the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is the primary lever for rapid GHG emission reductions. The paper highlights that a transition to EVs would eliminate the need for new crude-oil refinery capacity in South Africa but would increase electricity demand by approximately 20% by 2050. It also explores the role of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) for heavy corridor freight and the potential for a regional value chain leveraging the mineral resources of the DRC and Zambia.
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Document type: Research paper
SADC and the Abuja Declaration: Honouring the Pledge
The document examines the failure of most SADC member states to adhere to the Abuja Declaration's pledge to allocate 15% of annual budgets to health, noting that by the end of 2018, all member states were struggling to meet this target. It identifies aid dependency and economic decline as primary barriers, while arguing that the COVID-19 pandemic serves as a critical catalyst for overhauling underfunded systems. To bridge funding gaps, the author recommends establishing a SADC regional healthcare fund backed by the African Union, forming public-private partnerships, improving domestic tax compliance, and involving civil society organisations to ensure transparency.
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Document type: Policy brief
Waste Market Intelligence Report 2021
The report identifies significant economic potential in South Africa's waste sector, particularly through the transition toward a circular economy. It highlights the City of Cape Town as a primary hub for waste beneficiation due to its high landfill gate fees and substantial investments in material recovery facilities. Key growth drivers include the 2020 National Waste Management Strategy, new Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) regulations, and provincial landfill restrictions on organic waste. While the plastics and e-waste sectors show strong potential for virgin material replacement and national processing, challenges such as inadequate source separation, data gaps, and the volatility of virgin plastic prices persist.
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Document type: Report
SADC e-Mobility Outlook: Accelerating the Battery Manufacturing Value Chain
The SADC region possesses the raw minerals necessary for lithium-ion battery production but currently exports most as raw materials, missing value-addition opportunities. While South Africa has some R&D and assembly capabilities, the region lacks battery EV manufacturing plants due to policy gaps, infrastructure deficits, and a limited local market. The paper argues for regional collaboration, alignment with the SADC Industrialisation Strategy and Roadmap, and a 'just transition' to create jobs and economic growth.
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Document type: Research paper
SADC Futures of e-Mobility: EVs as Enablers of a New Energy Paradigm
The report argues that electric vehicles (EVs) can serve as enablers for a new energy paradigm in Southern Africa, shifting the region away from coal and oil dependency. It proposes a 'Southern African Green New Deal' and identifies five systemic innovations: transforming automakers into energy companies, implementing EV-enabled demand-side response services, transitioning consumers to 'prosumers' via peer-to-peer trading, deploying localized distributed energy resource (DER) networks using blockchain, and reskilling the workforce for green jobs. The analysis emphasizes that while South Africa's current grid is coal-heavy, EVs still offer lifecycle GHG reductions and can accelerate the decarbonization of power generation.
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Document type: Report
SADC Futures of Mining: Implications of Large-Scale EV Adoption
The paper advocates for a regional approach to the electrical vehicle-related minerals and metals (EVMM) industry in Southern Africa, suggesting that SADC member states redefine 'local content' to include the entire region. It recommends the creation of a public-private EVMM working group and a regional coordinating coalition to ensure sustainable supply chains. The author emphasizes the need to ratify the SADC Industrial Development Policy Framework and align national mining visions with the African Mining Vision. Additionally, the document calls for a circular economy approach to mining waste and the inclusion of both artisanal and large-scale mining to ensure decent job creation and community well-being.
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Document type: Research paper
SADC Automobile Futures: Towards Just E-Mobility Transitions
The report highlights the potential for e-mobility, specifically low-speed electric vehicles (LSEVs) and micromobility, to provide affordable transport in the SADC region. It identifies infrastructure gaps and a lack of political will as primary barriers, while suggesting that the region's strategic mineral reserves could provide global bargaining power. The author advocates for the use of existing frameworks like the SADC RISDP 2020–30 and the Green Economy Strategy to accelerate the transition and recommends that South Africa join the IEA's Electric Vehicles Initiative.
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Document type: Report
SADC Futures of Mining: Implications of Large-Scale EV Adoption
The document examines how SADC member states can leverage their vast reserves of EV-related minerals and metals (EVMM) to move from raw material export to regional beneficiation. It highlights the need for a public-private EVMM working group and coalition to coordinate value chains, formalise artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), and implement a circular economy approach to mining waste. The brief emphasizes that a regional 'green deal' and the finalisation of the Africa Mining Vision (AMV) are essential for a just transition to a low-carbon economy.
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Document type: Policy brief
Local Procurement Regulations for Extractive Industries in the SADC Region
The document maps local procurement regulations in the SADC region, distinguishing between demand-side policies (encouraging companies to buy locally) and supply-side interventions (supporting local supplier capacity). It finds that while most SADC countries have some form of local procurement requirement, the level of detail varies significantly, with the DRC, Namibia, South Africa, and Tanzania employing specific targets and plans, while others rely on vague 'best effort obligations'.
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Document type: Policy brief
Turning Crisis into Opportunity? Agricultural Exports to China During the Trade War
The research investigates the hypothesis that African agricultural exporters could substitute for US goods rendered expensive by tariffs. Using trade data from 2017 to 2019, the author finds that while African exports to China grew, the rate of growth declined over time and was significantly lower than that of competitors in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper argues that Africa has been unable to fully capitalise on the trade war due to a lack of state incentives, poor manufacturing sectors, and a failure to develop specific industries like pork, despite the potential created by the African swine flu in China.
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Document type: Research paper
Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals: A Major Threat to Public Health
The document analyzes the proliferation of counterfeit pharmaceuticals, which the WHO estimates constitute more than 50% of the global drug market. It highlights a severe crisis in Africa, where up to 70% of medicines in some countries like Nigeria are estimated to be counterfeit, leading to significant mortality from diseases like malaria. The brief discusses the role of high R&D costs and patents in creating market exclusivity that drives the poor toward cheaper, fake alternatives. It evaluates 'Track & Trace' technologies and international initiatives like IMPACT, while noting that weak enforcement and a lack of quality data hinder policy formulation. Finally, it explores pharmaceutical foreign direct investment (FDI) in the SADC region as a potential path toward legitimate market growth.
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Document type: Policy brief
FDI Trends in SADC: Implications for Value Chains, Industrialisation and Inclusive Growth
The study finds that FDI in the SADC region is heavily concentrated in South Africa and primarily flows into service sectors, while many countries remain locked in primary value chain stages. While secondary activities like manufacturing and construction drive job creation, there is a mismatch between FDI levels and export potential in sectors such as aquaculture and meat. The report suggests that the region can leverage growth in agro-processing and sustainable services through targeted policies, skills development, and local content incentives to align with the SADC Industrialisation Strategy and Roadmap (SISR).
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Document type: Research paper
FDI Trends in SADC: Implications for Value Chains, Industrialisation and Inclusive Growth
The analysis finds that while FDI in the SADC region is heavily driven by natural resource endowments and GDP, secondary activities (manufacturing and construction) are the primary drivers of job creation and inclusive growth. The paper highlights a mismatch between export potential and FDI in sectors like aquaculture and meat, while identifying strong growth opportunities in agro-processing and a potential revival in textiles driven by sustainable sourcing. It concludes that while services are growing, they provide significantly fewer jobs than industrial activities, validating the SISR's focus on industrialisation.
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Document type: Research paper
Guidelines for Implementing PPPs in SADC
The document examines the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in developing infrastructure in the SADC region, distinguishing them from privatisation and highlighting their potential to overcome budget constraints and technical inefficiencies. It identifies key barriers to PPP uptake in SADC, including political interference, lack of administrative maturity, and the risks of hidden debt through government guarantees. The briefing recommends the establishment of independent PPP units, improved public engagement protocols, and rigorous due diligence on partners to ensure sustainable project delivery.
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Document type: Policy brief
Guidelines for implementing PPPs in SADC
The document examines the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in addressing infrastructure deficits in the SADC region, contrasting them with privatisation and traditional procurement. It identifies key barriers to PPP success in Africa, including political interference, lack of dedicated PPP units, and the risks of hidden debt through government guarantees. The author recommends establishing independent PPP units, formalising public consultation processes, and conducting rigorous due diligence on partners to ensure transparency and value for money in sectors such as energy, transport, and water.
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Document type: Policy brief
Digitalising Democracy in SADC: Insights from 2019 Elections
The document examines how digital technologies and social media influenced the 2019 elections in four SADC member states. While these tools have opened spaces for youth engagement and increased transparency, they have also been used for disinformation and surveillance. The author argues that the region's political culture remains unresponsive, co-opting new media into traditional elite-driven systems rather than reforming governance, which could lead to instability similar to the Arab Spring.
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Document type: Policy brief
Waste: Market Intelligence Report 2020
The report identifies significant economic potential in diverting waste from landfills in South Africa, particularly in the Western Cape. Key opportunities are highlighted in the organics, plastics, e-waste, and construction sectors, driven by dwindling landfill airspace, rising disposal costs, and emerging regulations like Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) and the Carbon Tax Act. The Western Cape is positioned as a greentech hub, with the City of Cape Town generating the majority of the region's waste and offering the highest market value for beneficiation.
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Document type: Report
Introducing Electric Vehicles to Southern Africa: A Systemic Innovation Approach Towards a Green New Deal
The document examines the potential for electric vehicles (EVs) to transform the economic trajectories of Southern African states, specifically within the SADC region. It highlights the risks of remaining reactive—such as becoming a 'dumping ground' for obsolete internal combustion engine technology—and proposes a 'Green New Deal' for the region. The authors advocate for the integration of Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies, such as blockchain for ethical mineral sourcing, the development of regional battery value chains, and the deployment of decentralized renewable energy grids to support e-mobility.
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Document type: Policy brief
Harnessing the 4IR in SADC: Roles for Policymakers
The document argues that while SADC countries face significant digital divides and infrastructure gaps, adopting 4IR technologies is essential for economic growth. It identifies key constraints as a lack of ICT infrastructure, policy agility, and digital skills, suggesting that spectrum and infrastructure sharing are vital for improving affordability and coverage.
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Document type: Briefing