Turning Crisis into Opportunity? Agricultural Exports to China During the Trade War

The research investigates the hypothesis that African agricultural exporters could substitute for US goods rendered expensive by tariffs. Using trade data from 2017 to 2019, the author finds that while African exports to China grew, the rate of growth declined over time and was significantly lower than that of competitors in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper argues that Africa has been unable to fully capitalise on the trade war due to a lack of state incentives, poor manufacturing sectors, and a failure to develop specific industries like pork, despite the potential created by the African swine flu in China.

• Aggregate growth of agricultural exports to China from 2017 to 2019 was lowest for Africa compared to other studied regions, with Latin America and the Caribbean leading at 84.05%, followed by Asia at 79.42%, and Africa at 42.62%.
• Asia demonstrated the most consistent growth in agricultural exports to China during the trade war, increasing by 37.91% in 2018 and 41.51% in 2019.
• African regional agricultural exports showed volatile or declining growth patterns after the trade war began: SADC's edible fruit and nut growth slowed from 49.3% (2016-2017) to 5.7% in 2019; ECOWAS edible fruit exports dropped by -25.88% in 2018 and -22.81% in 2019; and EAC tobacco exports declined by -4.08% in 2018 and -47.4% in 2019.
• Africa failed to fill the pork supply gap in China caused by the US-China trade war and the African swine flu, which killed approximately 55% of Chinese pigs between February and December 2019.
• While African exports to China slowed, US agricultural exports to Africa grew, with US edible fruit and nut exports to the continent increasing from $91.8 million in 2017 to $142.15 million in 2019.
• The US agricultural industry's dominance is attributed to monoculture, efficient technology use, government research support, subsidies, and strong lobbying capacity.

APA

Ndzendze, B. (2020). Turning Crisis into Opportunity? Agricultural Exports to China During the Trade War. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Occasional-Paper-309-ndzendze.pdf

Chicago

Ndzendze, Bhaso. Turning Crisis into Opportunity? Agricultural Exports to China During the Trade War. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2020. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Occasional-Paper-309-ndzendze.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ndzendze |first1=Bhaso |title=Turning Crisis into Opportunity? Agricultural Exports to China During the Trade War |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=July 2020 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Occasional-Paper-309-ndzendze.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ndzendze2020turning, author = {Ndzendze, Bhaso}, title = {{Turning Crisis into Opportunity? Agricultural Exports to China During the Trade War}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Occasional-Paper-309-ndzendze.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }