Search Climate Insights Directory

The briefing examines the paradigm of humanitarian intervention and the 'responsibility to protect' (R2P) in post-cold war Africa. The author contends that these interventions often fail to address deep-seated inequalities and may inadvertently prolong conflicts by creating truces that allow weaker parties to rearm. The text suggests that non-intervention—allowing a conflict to reach a military conclusion—or targeted political and credible protection missions may be more effective alternatives for achieving durable peace.

The report argues that the US strategy of combining counter-terrorism with state building in Somalia, lacking local knowledge and long-term planning, is likely to incite a violent backlash. It highlights how the US securitised 'failed states' as terrorism sources, leading to actions such as paying warlords to track al-Qa’eda and providing tacit support for the Ethiopian invasion in 2006. The author contends that only a shift toward regional diplomacy and civilian peacebuilding can restrain the current violence.

President Joyce Banda of Malawi has stated the country will cooperate with the International Criminal Court (ICC) and arrest Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir if he attends the African Union summit in July. This position contradicts the African Union's instruction to member states not to cooperate with the ICC in this case, potentially creating tension between Malawi and other AU members. The move is viewed as a pragmatic effort to restore Malawi's international image and secure necessary foreign aid, following criticism of a previous visit by Al-Bashir. Additionally, the document notes Malawi's democratic progress through the repeal of a repressive media law, while expressing concern that President Banda has weakened civil society by co-opting its members into her cabinet.

The author contends that the Darfur crisis is a manifestation of a breakdown in governance and long-term discontent with elitist rule in Sudan, rather than a simple religious or ethnic divide. The text criticizes the role of international activism and media, noting that the use of inflated fatality statistics creates a threshold for concern that ignores underlying causes. Furthermore, it suggests that reliance on international 'conflict management' by the UN and diplomats removes local agency and accountability, arguing that a sustainable solution must be driven by Sudanese civil society.

The report details a seminar held in Addis Ababa on February 12, 2009, which analyzed the outcomes of the 12th Ordinary Summit of the African Union. Key discussions focused on the low implementation rate of AU Assembly decisions, the legal challenges of transforming the AU Commission into an Authority, and the AU's response to the International Criminal Court's indictment of the President of Sudan.

The provided text is a detailed list of references, including academic books, reports from international organizations (UN, AU, ECOWAS), human rights briefings (Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch), and legal documents. The bibliography focuses on the geopolitical and security landscape of West Africa, specifically documenting the civil wars and peace processes in Liberia and Sierra Leone, the role of ECOMOG and UNMIL, and the application of international humanitarian law and transitional justice.

The authors argue that fragmentation should be understood through three dimensions: the number of organizations, the degree of institutionalization, and the distribution of power. They hypothesize that extreme fragmentation across all three dimensions increases the likelihood of widespread, indecisive infighting, while cohesion—achieved through fewer organizations, stronger institutions, or concentrated power—reduces the probability of such violence. The paper illustrates these dynamics using cases from Darfur, Chechnya, and Sri Lanka.

The paper examines the 'globalisation' of the Darfur rebellion, arguing that while international attention provided rebels with leverage and deterred mass violence, it also incentivised uncompromising political posturing and fostered internal fragmentation by decoupling leadership from local legitimacy.

The authors examine the causal links between climate change and armed conflict, finding a significant gap between dramatic political claims of 'climate wars' and actual empirical data. They note a paradox where global warming has accelerated while the number of ongoing conflicts has declined. The paper outlines five potential mechanisms—political instability, social fragmentation, economic instability, migration, and unintended policy consequences—through which environmental stress might indirectly influence conflict, but concludes that these effects are heavily mediated by existing state capacity and socio-political conditions.

The document examines how ethno-national diasporas influence civil wars through financial contributions, military and political involvement, and international advocacy. It analyzes the dual nature of this influence, noting that while diaspora resources can prolong conflict by sustaining armed groups and hardening political stances, they also offer significant potential for peace through post-conflict reconstruction, the provision of skilled personnel for new institutions, and the promotion of human rights discourses.

The study traces a longitudinal history of violence in South Sudan, arguing that since the colonial period, local populations have been viewed as resources to be managed, exploited, and controlled rather than non-combatants. This logic of violent governance—characterized by forced displacement, collective punishment, and the blurring of lines between military and civilian actors—has persisted through multiple civil wars and continues to influence current conflict dynamics and the effectiveness of international protection efforts.