A Plague of Initials: Fragmentation, Cohesion, and Infighting in Civil Wars

The authors argue that fragmentation should be understood through three dimensions: the number of organizations, the degree of institutionalization, and the distribution of power. They hypothesize that extreme fragmentation across all three dimensions increases the likelihood of widespread, indecisive infighting, while cohesion—achieved through fewer organizations, stronger institutions, or concentrated power—reduces the probability of such violence. The paper illustrates these dynamics using cases from Darfur, Chechnya, and Sri Lanka.

• The authors conceptualize fragmentation as a multidimensional scale consisting of three constitutive dimensions: the number of organizations in a movement, the degree of institutionalization across those organizations, and the distribution of power among them.
• Extreme fragmentation—defined by many organizations, weak institutional links, and dispersed power—is associated with a very high probability of violent infighting that is typically widespread, localized, and indecisive.
• Reducing the number of organizations in a movement, while keeping other dimensions fragmented, lowers the probability of infighting, although any fighting that does occur is likely to be widespread and encompassing.
• Increasing the degree of institutionalization reduces the probability of violent infighting by coordinating action and steering power struggles through non-violent channels; when violence does occur in such movements, it typically originates from new organizations challenging the structure or members defecting from it.
• The concentration of power in a single dominant organization reduces the probability of infighting compared to extremely fragmented groups, and shifts the pattern of violence to localized but decisive engagements where the hegemon targets or fights select challengers.
• In the case of Darfur, the movement shifted from a few dominant organizations (SLA and JEM) to extreme fragmentation after 2006, leading to widespread but indecisive clashes between small splinter groups.
• The Chechen nationalist movement demonstrated that high institutionalization (1990-1991) prevented significant infighting, but the subsequent dissolution of formal institutional ties led to a period of clashes between loyalists and opponents.
• The Tamil self-determination movement in Sri Lanka evolved from localized clashes between weak groups to a period of 'fratricidal bloodletting' as the LTTE concentrated power by eliminating rivals, eventually resulting in a reduction of infighting under LTTE dominance.

APA

Bakke, K. M., Cunningham, K. G., & Seymour, L. J. M. (n.d.). A Plague of Initials: Fragmentation, Cohesion, and Infighting in Civil Wars. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/95cc7dc5-5018-453b-8ca6-4897f9c120e5/A Plague of Initials Fragmentation Cohesion and Infighting in Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Bakke, Kristin M., Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham, and L. J. M. Seymour. A Plague of Initials: Fragmentation, Cohesion, and Infighting in Civil Wars. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/95cc7dc5-5018-453b-8ca6-4897f9c120e5/A Plague of Initials Fragmentation Cohesion and Infighting in Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bakke |first1=Kristin M. |last2=Cunningham |first2=Kathleen Gallagher |last3=Seymour |first3=L. J. M. |title=A Plague of Initials: Fragmentation, Cohesion, and Infighting in Civil Wars |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/95cc7dc5-5018-453b-8ca6-4897f9c120e5/A Plague of Initials Fragmentation Cohesion and Infighting in Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bakkendplague, author = {Bakke, Kristin M. and Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher and Seymour, L. J. M.}, title = {{A Plague of Initials: Fragmentation, Cohesion, and Infighting in Civil Wars}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/95cc7dc5-5018-453b-8ca6-4897f9c120e5/A Plague of Initials Fragmentation Cohesion and Infighting in Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }