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This document is a Vietnamese translation of excerpts from the 'Boom & Burst Coal 2024' report by Global Energy Monitor and its partners. It analyzes global coal power trends in 2023, highlighting a dichotomy where new construction has hit a 9-year low outside China but an 8-year high within China. The report provides a detailed assessment of Vietnam's energy transition, focusing on the Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) and the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), while noting that global coal capacity reached an all-time high in 2023.

In 2024, global new coal capacity reached its lowest level in two decades, though China and India continued significant expansions. While the EU27 saw a fourfold increase in retirements and the UK closed its last coal plant, Indonesia experienced a surge in 'captive' coal plants for industrial use, contradicting its stated transition goals.

In 2025, global coal capacity additions reached 97.4 GW, the second-highest on record, primarily driven by China and India, even as global coal-fired electricity generation declined by 0.6%. The report highlights a decoupling where coal is increasingly used as system insurance rather than primary generation, as wind and solar displace coal. While China and India dominate new development, coal activity elsewhere is shrinking and becoming more isolated. However, net capacity outside China rose by 5 GW due to a slowdown in retirements and rebounds in India.

Global operating coal capacity increased by 48.4 GW in 2023, reaching a total of 2,130 GW, primarily driven by a surge of new plants in China. While construction starts hit record lows outside of China, China's new construction starts reached an eight-year high of 70.2 GW. Despite a growing number of countries committing to 'No New Coal', 75% of global operating coal capacity still lacks a specific closure commitment, hindering alignment with the Paris Agreement goals.

In 2024, the world commissioned the lowest amount of new coal power capacity in twenty years (44 GW), yet the global fleet still grew by 18.8 GW because additions exceeded retirements (25.2 GW). While the UK became the sixth country to phase out coal entirely and EU27 retirements grew fourfold, China and India dominated new developments, accounting for 92% of all newly proposed coal capacity. China saw its highest construction starts since 2015 (94 GW), and India recorded its highest year for new proposals (38.4 GW). In the OECD, proposals dropped to five, but annual retirements must more than triple to 70 GW to align with 1.5C pathways. Other trends include a surge in captive coal plants in Indonesia, the promotion of ammonia co-firing in Japan and South Korea, and continued coal pursuit in Russia, Mongolia, and Central Asia.

In 2024, global coal power capacity increased by 18.8 GW, as 44.1 GW was commissioned and 25.2 GW retired. While the EU27 saw a fourfold increase in retirements and the UK completed its coal phaseout, global progress was offset by significant expansion in China and India. China commissioned 30.5 GW (70% of the global total) and saw 94.5 GW in new construction starts. India recorded its highest-ever level of new coal proposals at 38.4 GW. Conversely, coal proposals in OECD countries dropped from 142 in 2015 to five today, though retirements in these nations must triple to align with the Paris Agreement.

The report identifies a widening gap between coal capacity and generation, particularly in China and India, where new plants are built as 'system insurance' while renewables displace coal in actual output. Globally, the coal pipeline is narrowing geographically, with 95% of construction concentrated in China and India. However, the report notes a significant slowdown in retirements in the U.S. and EU due to policy interventions and energy security concerns. Regional analyses highlight Indonesia's growth in captive coal for industrial processing, the U.S.'s political push to sustain aging plants, and the EU's structural shift toward a coal-free system. The document also examines the impact of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on the Western Balkans and the challenges of rebuilding Ukraine's energy system.

The global operating coal fleet grew by 48.4 GW (2%) in 2023 to 2,130 GW, primarily driven by China. While many countries have reduced their coal pipelines or committed to 'No New Coal,' China saw an eight-year high in new construction starts. Outside China, new construction hit a record annual low. However, global operating capacity has grown 11% since 2015, and only 15% of current capacity has a retirement commitment aligned with the 1.5°C goal.

In 2024, the world commissioned the lowest amount of new coal power capacity in twenty years (44 GW), yet the global fleet still grew by 18.8 GW because additions exceeded retirements. While OECD countries and the EU are accelerating phaseouts—with the UK becoming the sixth country to eliminate coal entirely—China and India continue to drive global expansion. China saw its highest construction starts since 2015 (94 GW), and India recorded its highest year for new proposals (38.4 GW). Outside these two nations, coal development has declined for ten consecutive years. However, the report notes that current retirement rates in OECD countries must more than triple to meet 1.5°C warming targets.

The global coal fleet grew by 18.2 GW in 2021, primarily driven by China, which commissioned 25.2 GW of new capacity. While COP26 led to an increase in the number of plants with phase-out dates to 750 (550 GW), a significant gap remains to meet the 1.5C pathway, which would require retiring an additional 1,100 GW. Public financing for new international coal projects has largely ceased following pledges from G20 countries, including China, Japan, and South Korea. However, some nations continue to rely on unproven 'clean coal' technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) to extend plant lifetimes.

The report finds that while the world outside China is nearing a 'no new coal' milestone, a massive surge in coal permitting and construction in China is offsetting global progress. In 2022, the global coal fleet grew by 19.5 GW, driven by China, which now accounts for 68% of global capacity under development. While the U.S. and EU continue to retire capacity, the pace of global retirements remains far below the levels required to meet a 1.5C pathway, which would necessitate an average of 117 GW of retirements per year. The report also highlights the role of private finance, noting that most financial institutions' coal policies remain insufficient to align with climate science.

The report finds that most indicators of global coal power growth declined in 2018, with significant drops in new construction starts and permits in China and India. While global retirements reached near-record levels, led by the US, China remains a major exception by resuming construction on previously shelved plants and proposing a high coal power cap for 2030. The document argues that current operating coal plants already exceed the limits necessary to meet IPCC global warming targets of 1.5°C or 2°C.

The report finds that while the global coal fleet grew by 34.1 GW in 2019, this was primarily driven by China, as the fleet outside China shrank for the second consecutive year. Most leading indicators of growth, including construction starts and pre-permit development, continued to decline globally. The report highlights a shift in financing, with Western commercial banks exiting project finance for coal, while Chinese public finance and Indian state-backed institutions continue to support new capacity. Despite these trends, the report argues that coal power use must fall by 80% by 2030 to align with the 1.5C warming limit of the Paris climate agreement.

In 2020, a significant increase in coal plant development in China offset a global retreat from coal, leading to the first increase in global coal capacity since 2015. While China commissioned 38.4 GW of new capacity, the rest of the world saw a decline of 17.2 GW, driven by record retirements in the U.S. and EU27. South and Southeast Asian nations, including Indonesia, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Vietnam, announced plans to cut up to 62 GW of planned coal power due to falling renewable costs and financing difficulties. Despite these regional shifts, the report finds that global coal capacity remains far above the levels required to meet the IPCC 1.5 degree pathway, with an estimated 1,350 GW needing to be cancelled or retired.

The report finds that while many countries are committing to end coal power, global capacity increased by 18.2 GW in 2021, driven primarily by China. While OECD countries and several non-OECD nations are cancelling projects, China's continued expansion and the use of unproven 'clean coal' technologies in some developed nations hinder alignment with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target.

The report finds that while global coal capacity grew by 34.1 GW in 2019, this was primarily driven by China, where 68.3 GW of new capacity began operating. Outside China, the global coal fleet shrank for the second consecutive year. Pre-construction pipelines are declining globally, with significant drops in India, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In OECD countries, capacity has declined since 2011, though Japan remains a major driver of new coal power. Financing is becoming more restrictive, with no direct project finance from major US, European, or Australian banks for 2019 constructions, although public financing from China and India continues to support new projects.

The report finds that while global coal capacity is increasingly subject to carbon neutrality targets, a significant gap remains between current phase-out rates and Paris Agreement goals. China is the primary driver of new coal capacity, while the US leads in retirements. In Indonesia, the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) provides a $20 billion financial commitment to accelerate the electricity sector's emission peak to 2030, though 'captive' coal plants for industrial use remain a significant challenge.

The report finds that global gas-fired power capacity in development (615 GW) now exceeds that of coal (457 GW), representing an estimated US$509 billion in capital expenditure. This expansion is described as ubiquitous across all continents, directly conflicting with the IEA's 1.5°C net-zero pathway. The authors argue that these investments face significant stranded asset risks as clean energy portfolios (CEPs) increasingly outcompete gas on cost, particularly in the US and Australia.

In 2020, global coal-fired power capacity increased by 12.5 GW, driven primarily by China, which operated 38.4 GW of new capacity. This offset record closures in the US (11.3 GW) and EU27 (10.1 GW). While China's development grew as an economic stimulus during the pandemic, other Asian nations like Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the Philippines announced plans to cancel up to 62 GW of planned projects due to falling renewable costs and financing difficulties. The report concludes that current global trajectories remain far from the 1.5°C warming limit, with approximately 1,350 GW of capacity needing to be cancelled or closed to meet IPCC targets.

This document is a Japanese translation of an excerpt from the 'Boom & Bust Coal 2024' report by Global Energy Monitor and its partners. It tracks global coal-fired power plant plans as of April 2024, highlighting a contradiction where global coal capacity reached record highs in 2023 despite a general trend of shrinking development pipelines in most countries except China.