Boom and Bust Coal 2026

The report identifies a widening gap between coal capacity and generation, particularly in China and India, where new plants are built as 'system insurance' while renewables displace coal in actual output. Globally, the coal pipeline is narrowing geographically, with 95% of construction concentrated in China and India. However, the report notes a significant slowdown in retirements in the U.S. and EU due to policy interventions and energy security concerns. Regional analyses highlight Indonesia's growth in captive coal for industrial processing, the U.S.'s political push to sustain aging plants, and the EU's structural shift toward a coal-free system. The document also examines the impact of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on the Western Balkans and the challenges of rebuilding Ukraine's energy system.

• In 2025, global coal power capacity grew by 3.5% while coal-fired generation fell by 0.6%, indicating that new capacity is being absorbed through lower utilization rates rather than increased output.
• China's coal sector shows contradictory trends: it commissioned a decade-high 78.1 GW of new capacity in 2025, yet coal-fired electricity generation declined by 1.2%.
• Global coal retirements slowed in 2025, with nearly 70% of units scheduled to retire remaining online. This was driven by federal emergency orders in the U.S. and energy security concerns in the EU.
• The number of countries proposing or building new coal plants continued to shrink, falling from 38 in 2024 to 32 in 2025. Latin America reached 'No New Coal' status in 2025.
• Indonesia's coal growth is heavily driven by the industrial sector, with operating captive capacity reaching 20 GW by the end of 2025, largely supporting nickel and aluminum processing.
• In the United States, coal generation rose by 13% in 2025, making it the only major economy to see a significant increase, largely due to political interventions that blocked planned retirements.
• South Korea pledged in 2025 to phase out coal power by 2040 and joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, while Japan continues to promote ammonia co-firing and carbon capture to maintain coal operations.
• In the Western Balkans, the introduction of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in 2026 is expected to reduce income from carbon-intensive electricity exports, potentially accelerating coal phaseouts.
• Ukraine's energy infrastructure has suffered massive damage from Russian strikes, with GEM estimating that only about 1 GW of coal-fired capacity remains operational within Ukraine-controlled territory.

APA

Global Energy Monitor (n.d.). Boom and Bust Coal 2026. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/GEM-Boom-and-Bust-Coal-2026.pdf

Chicago

Global Energy Monitor. Boom and Bust Coal 2026. n.d. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/GEM-Boom-and-Bust-Coal-2026.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Global Energy Monitor |title=Boom and Bust Coal 2026 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/GEM-Boom-and-Bust-Coal-2026.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{globalenergymonitorndboom, author = {{Global Energy Monitor}}, title = {{Boom and Bust Coal 2026}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/GEM-Boom-and-Bust-Coal-2026.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }