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The briefing contends that the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement are insufficient for phasing out fossil fuels due to a lack of mention of specific fuels, a consensus-based decision model, and a focus on emissions rather than production. It proposes a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to address these gaps, noting that a bloc of eight nations, including Vanuatu and Tuvalu, is already calling for such a coalition.

The policy brief argues for a systematic intergovernmental mechanism to collect and review data on fossil fuel production to close the 'production gap'. It suggests a framework combining technical expert verification with political peer review, while allowing for differentiated reporting requirements based on a country's capacity or production share. The authors emphasize the need for capacity-building support for the Global South, formal roles for non-state actors to ensure accountability, and a staged approach to follow-up that moves from facilitative learning to goal-oriented accountability.

The briefing asserts that the omission of fossil fuel production and consumption from NDCs undermines the 1.5°C temperature limit and may constitute a breach of international law. Citing the International Court of Justice, it argues that NDCs are binding obligations requiring 'highest possible ambition' and due diligence. The document calls for 2025 NDCs to include comprehensive packages addressing production, consumption, exploration licenses, and subsidies, while ensuring a just transition and policy coherence between supply and climate goals.

The report asserts that fossil fuels are the primary driver of climate change and air pollution, negatively impacting every UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG). It highlights specific failures, such as the $5.9 trillion spent on fossil fuel subsidies in 2020 and the 8.7 million premature deaths caused by fossil fuel pollution annually between 2012 and 2018. To address these issues, the authors propose a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty based on three pillars: a worldwide moratorium on new exploration, an equitable phase-down of existing projects, and financial and technological assistance for a just transition.

The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative submits that fossil fuel production is the primary driver of the climate emergency and therefore falls under the jurisdiction of human rights law. The brief contends that States have a duty of prevention to regulate, monitor, and phase out fossil fuels to protect fundamental rights, including the rights to life, health, and a healthy environment. It emphasizes differentiated obligations, arguing that wealthy, developed States must act first and provide support to less-developed nations. The document also advocates for a 'just transition' and increased transparency regarding fossil fuel reserves and production.

The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative submits that fossil fuel production is the primary driver of the climate emergency and directly violates numerous human rights, including the rights to life, health, and a healthy environment. The document argues that states have a legal duty under the American Convention on Human Rights to regulate, monitor, and ultimately phase out fossil fuel production. It emphasizes differentiated responsibilities, asserting that wealthy, developed nations must lead the phase-out and provide financial and technical support to less developed states. The brief further advocates for a 'just transition' that protects vulnerable populations and ensures transparency through active disclosure of fossil fuel production data.

The document argues that fossil fuels act as weapons of mass destruction, contributing to 86% of CO2 emissions in the last decade. It analyzes the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Chemical Weapons Convention, the Mine Ban Treaty, and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons to provide a roadmap for a similar global fossil fuel regime. The brief identifies four pivotal areas for success: building an evidence base through civil society reporting, igniting conversations via city and parliamentarian advocacy, shifting the narrative from defense to humanitarian issues, and convening pioneering countries through regional bans and strategic conferences. It also details treaty elements such as prohibitions, victim assistance obligations, and the role of implementation agencies like the IAEA and OPCW.

The briefing note advocates for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to complement the Paris Agreement by addressing fossil fuel production. It proposes a three-pillar approach—non-proliferation, global phase-out, and just transition support—and suggests that a group of 'champion' countries could drive the process. The document outlines a roadmap from building public support and evidence bases to formal negotiations via standalone processes, UN General Assembly resolutions, or other UN bodies, drawing parallels to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and the Mine Ban Treaty.

The document outlines various structural options for integrating principles into a Fossil Fuel Treaty, such as through dedicated provisions or preambles. It details 16 potential international law principles—including common but differentiated responsibilities, precaution, and just transition—explaining their legal nature, precedents in other treaties, and how they could be applied to regulate the phase-out of fossil fuel production.

The proposed Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty is based on three pillars: an immediate end to the expansion of new fossil fuel production, a fair phase-out of existing production aligned with the 1.5 target, and a global just transition to ensure support for affected workers and communities. The initiative argues that current 'net zero' plans often fail to address fossil fuels and that a rapid global exit is possible because renewable energy resources are sufficient to meet global demand.

The report details the long-term struggle to pass the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) in Nigeria, starting from 2000. It highlights how political disagreements and institutional distrust have led to significant economic losses, estimated at $120 billion over eight years. The document analyzes the transition to the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB) under the Buhari administration, which aims to unbundle the NNPC and limit the discretionary powers of the Petroleum Minister to improve transparency and attract investment.

A joint investigation by Global Witness and Radio Free Europe (RFE) identifies a supply chain connecting Wintershall Dea's gas condensate production in Western Siberia to the Salavat refinery, which in turn supplies diesel to companies with Russian military contracts. While the report notes it is not possible to determine if a specific barrel of diesel contains Wintershall's condensate, it highlights that the refinery's output reaches suppliers for the Federal Guard Service (FSO) and other military units. The report criticizes Wintershall for its continued shareholding in these ventures and its pursuit of German government compensation despite these connections.

Global Witness critiques COP26 as a failure that lacked urgency and accountability, noting that the summit allowed fossil fuel lobbyists significant access while excluding many affected communities. The organization highlights the inadequacy of voluntary pledges on deforestation and the failure to secure comprehensive agreements on phasing out oil, gas, and fossil fuel subsidies, concluding that the commitments made are insufficient to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees.

Global Witness reports that BASF's subsidiary, Wintershall Dea, continued extracting and transporting Russian gas in 2022 despite BASF's public commitment to wind down non-food businesses in Russia. The brief estimates that Russian gas transported by Wintershall across Germany in early 2022 was worth over €14 billion and that the subsidiary earned €400 million from Siberian fields between January and March 2022. It highlights BASF CEO Martin Brudermüller's lobbying to maintain these supplies to avoid economic crisis, while noting that Wintershall's partnership with Gazprom has increased Russia's leverage over Germany's energy security.

A Global Witness statement calling for the EU to pass the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, supported by polling showing 74% of citizens in ten EU countries want a law requiring companies to reduce emissions to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.

Global Witness highlights that despite Shell's public claims of exiting Russia and writing down its assets, the company may receive over $1 billion from a bid by Novatek for its stake in the Sakhalin-II project. The author contends that 'writing down' assets is a meaningless accounting measure that does not end legal ownership. The document calls for Shell to donate these funds to Ukraine, noting that such a payout would cover more than 10% of the direct damage caused by Russia to Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

The report finds that all forecast capital expenditure in new oil and gas fields is incompatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. It warns that relying on unproven carbon capture and removal technologies to justify continued investment increases the risk of a 'disorderly transition' and systemic financial instability, potentially leading to global economic losses of $23 trillion per year if the world fails to transition.

The briefing argues that European and U.S. energy companies provided nearly USD 100 billion to the Russian government through oil and gas projects from 2014 to 2021. Using Rystad Energy data, the report identifies BP as the largest contributor, accounting for 80% of the total. The authors contend that these investments provided critical technological expertise and capital to Vladimir Putin's regime, persisting from the 2014 Crimea annexation until the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Global Witness asserts that the influence of corporate money in US politics, exacerbated by the Citizens United decision, has led to climate inaction and the failure to implement the Cardin-Lugar anti-corruption provision. The organization argues that the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) proposed rules are insufficient because they do not require project-level payment disclosure, which is essential for detecting corruption in the extractive industries, as evidenced by cases involving Shell, Eni, and Glencore.

The document highlights that 322 land and environmental defenders have been killed in Colombia over the last ten years, alongside numerous non-lethal attacks such as threats and criminalization. It argues that the ratification of the Escazú Agreement—the first regional treaty for Latin America and the Caribbean on human rights and the environment—is essential to mandate the prevention and investigation of attacks against defenders. While noting that countries like Mexico, Bolivia, Ecuador, Chile, and Argentina have already ratified the agreement, it points to the government of Gustavo Petro and initiatives like the 'Somos Defensores' program and its emergency plan as reasons for optimism in establishing a safe environment for environmental participation.