Overexposed

The report finds that all forecast capital expenditure in new oil and gas fields is incompatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. It warns that relying on unproven carbon capture and removal technologies to justify continued investment increases the risk of a 'disorderly transition' and systemic financial instability, potentially leading to global economic losses of $23 trillion per year if the world fails to transition.

• Analysis of IPCC scenarios that do not rely on high levels of carbon capture or removal indicates that any production from new oil and gas fields, as well as the entire $4.9 trillion in forecast capital expenditure (capex) for such fields, is incompatible with a 1.5°C warming limit. Additionally, 9% of oil and 6% of gas production from existing fields are incompatible with this goal.
• Despite a decline since 2014, oil and gas capex is forecast to increase by over 85% over the next decade, exceeding $1 trillion annually. Two-thirds of this investment is targeted at new fields where development has not yet started. Major projects identified include US domestic shale expansion, the Vaca Muerta shale in Argentina, the Kashagan oil field in Kazakhstan, and the Yamal megaproject in Russia, with ExxonMobil, Shell, and Chevron among the leading investors.
• The report argues that reliance on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a major risk because these technologies are not yet deployed at a meaningful scale. Specifically, only two operational CCS projects exist in the global power sector, and large-scale BECCS would require approximately one-third of the planet's arable land.
• Investors may be underestimating transition risks by using scenarios like the IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) or Shell's 2°C scenario, which the report claims rely on unrealistic assumptions regarding carbon capture. Failure to transition could result in a 'disorderly transition' involving sudden government restrictions on fossil fuel supply and demand, and could lead to global economic losses of up to $23 trillion per year.

APA

Global Witness (n.d.). Overexposed. https://globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/oil-gas-and-mining/overexposed/

Chicago

Global Witness. Overexposed. n.d. https://globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/oil-gas-and-mining/overexposed/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Global Witness |title=Overexposed |url=https://globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/oil-gas-and-mining/overexposed/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{globalwitnessndoverexposed, author = {{Global Witness}}, title = {{Overexposed}}, institution = {Global Witness}, url = {https://globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/oil-gas-and-mining/overexposed/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }