SUMMARY OF FOSSIL FUEL COMMITMENTS IN NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS

The briefing asserts that the omission of fossil fuel production and consumption from NDCs undermines the 1.5°C temperature limit and may constitute a breach of international law. Citing the International Court of Justice, it argues that NDCs are binding obligations requiring 'highest possible ambition' and due diligence. The document calls for 2025 NDCs to include comprehensive packages addressing production, consumption, exploration licenses, and subsidies, while ensuring a just transition and policy coherence between supply and climate goals.

• There is a significant gap between planned fossil fuel production and the levels required to meet the 1.5°C temperature limit; countries are currently planning to produce 120% more fossil fuels than is compatible with this limit by 2030. To remain within the limit, production must decrease by at least 40% and potentially up to 58% by 2030.
• The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has established that NDCs are not merely voluntary but are binding obligations that must reflect a party's 'highest possible ambition' and represent an ambitious progression over time. Failure to formulate an ambitious NDC may be viewed as a failure to act in due diligence, potentially leading to international responsibility for breaching conventional and customary obligations.
• A state may commit an internationally wrongful act if it fails to take appropriate action to protect the climate system from greenhouse gas emissions, specifically by omitting measures in their NDCs regarding fossil fuel production, consumption, the provision of subsidies, or the granting of exploration licenses.
• To achieve policy coherence and legal compliance, NDCs should include a comprehensive package of commitments that address fossil fuel production and consumption, the scaling up of renewable energy, and the implementation of just transition measures. These commitments should be based on equity, accounting for national circumstances and historical contributions to cumulative emissions.

APA

Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative (n.d.). SUMMARY OF FOSSIL FUEL COMMITMENTS IN NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Fossil-Fuel-Commitments-in-Nationally-Determined-Contributions.pdf

Chicago

Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. SUMMARY OF FOSSIL FUEL COMMITMENTS IN NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS. n.d. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Fossil-Fuel-Commitments-in-Nationally-Determined-Contributions.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative |title=SUMMARY OF FOSSIL FUEL COMMITMENTS IN NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS |url=https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Fossil-Fuel-Commitments-in-Nationally-Determined-Contributions.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fossilfuelnonproliferationtreatyinitiativendsummary, author = {{Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative}}, title = {{SUMMARY OF FOSSIL FUEL COMMITMENTS IN NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS}}, institution = {Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative}, url = {https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/Fossil-Fuel-Commitments-in-Nationally-Determined-Contributions.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }