Search Climate Insights Directory

The report attributes the 2022 West African floods to a combination of anthropogenic climate change, which significantly increased the likelihood and intensity of rainfall in the Lake Chad and Lower Niger basins, and systemic vulnerabilities including poor water management, rapid unplanned urbanization, and socioeconomic instability. In the Lake Chad region, climate change made the seasonal rainfall event approximately 80 times more likely and 20% more intense. In the Lower Niger basin, the 7-day maximum rainfall event became about twice as likely and 5% more intense. The human toll was exacerbated by the release of the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon and the proximity of settlements to floodplains.

The study concludes that human-induced climate change approximately doubled the probability of the April 2022 extreme rainfall event in Eastern South Africa and increased its intensity by 4-8%. While the event had a return time of about 20 years in the current climate, it would have been rarer in a 1.2°C cooler world. The disaster's impact was severely exacerbated by structural vulnerabilities, including the legacy of apartheid spatial planning and the prevalence of informal settlements in high-risk areas.