Climate change exacerbated rainfall causing devastating flooding in Eastern South Africa

The study concludes that human-induced climate change approximately doubled the probability of the April 2022 extreme rainfall event in Eastern South Africa and increased its intensity by 4-8%. While the event had a return time of about 20 years in the current climate, it would have been rarer in a 1.2°C cooler world. The disaster's impact was severely exacerbated by structural vulnerabilities, including the legacy of apartheid spatial planning and the prevalence of informal settlements in high-risk areas.

• Human-induced climate change approximately doubled the probability of the extreme rainfall event that caused the April 2022 disaster and increased the intensity of the event by 4-8%.
• In the current climate, the area-averaged 2-day rainfall event had a return time of approximately 20 years, whereas in a world 1.2°C cooler, the return time would have been about 40 years.
• Localised rainfall totals were significantly higher than the regional average, with the Mount Edgecombe station recording a 1-in-200 year event.
• The April 11-12 event resulted in significant socioeconomic losses, including 435 reported deaths, 55 injuries, 54 missing persons, and property damage estimated at approximately 17 billion rand (US$1.57 billion).
• The disaster disproportionately affected marginalised communities and informal settlements, with over 4,000 homes in informal settlements in the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality destroyed.
• Structural vulnerability was exacerbated by the legacy of apartheid spatial planning, specifically the Group Areas Act of 1958, which displaced non-white communities into more flood-exposed areas.
• Although the South African Weather Service and eThekwini municipality issued early warnings, evidence suggests these warnings had limited reach or were not actionable for those who received them.
• The extreme rainfall was caused by a cut-off low (COL) system, which is common in April in the region, and was further intensified by moisture-laden maritime winds from the southern Indian Ocean.

APA

Pinto, I., Zachariah, M., Wolski, P., Landman, S., Phakula, V., Maluleke, W., Bopape, M.-J., Engelbrecht, C., Jack, C., McClure, A., Bonnet, R., Vautard, R., Philip, S., Kew, S., Heinrich, D., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Thalheimer, L., ... Dipura, R. (n.d.). Climate change exacerbated rainfall causing devastating flooding in Eastern South Africa. World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-KZN-floods-scientific-report.pdf

Chicago

Pinto, Izidine, Mariam Zachariah, Piotr Wolski, Stephanie Landman, Vanetia Phakula, Wisani Maluleke, Mary-Jane Bopape, et al. Climate change exacerbated rainfall causing devastating flooding in Eastern South Africa. World Weather Attribution, n.d. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-KZN-floods-scientific-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Pinto |first1=Izidine |last2=Zachariah |first2=Mariam |last3=Wolski |first3=Piotr |last4=Landman |first4=Stephanie |last5=Phakula |first5=Vanetia |last6=Maluleke |first6=Wisani |last7=Bopape |first7=Mary-Jane |last8=Engelbrecht |first8=Christien |last9=Jack |first9=Christopher |display-authors=etal |title=Climate change exacerbated rainfall causing devastating flooding in Eastern South Africa |publisher=World Weather Attribution |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-KZN-floods-scientific-report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{pintondclimate, author = {Pinto, Izidine and Zachariah, Mariam and Wolski, Piotr and Landman, Stephanie and Phakula, Vanetia and Maluleke, Wisani and Bopape, Mary-Jane and Engelbrecht, Christien and Jack, Christopher and McClure, Alice and Bonnet, Remy and Vautard, Robert and Philip, Sjoukje and Kew, Sarah and Heinrich, Dorothy and Vahlberg, Maja and Singh, Roop and Arrighi, Julie and Thalheimer, Lisa and van Aalst, Maarten and Li, Sihan and Sun, Jingru and Vecchi, Gabriel and Yang, Wenchang and Tradowsky, Jordis and Otto, Friederike E. L. and Dipura, Romeo}, title = {{Climate change exacerbated rainfall causing devastating flooding in Eastern South Africa}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-KZN-floods-scientific-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }