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Regulierungen und Investitionen für die Energiewende
The report analyzes the investment potential for renewable energy in Germany, concluding that sufficient capital exists to meet government targets provided an appropriate regulatory framework is in place. It emphasizes that a diverse mix of investors—including households, cooperatives, and institutional investors—is essential for cost-efficiency. The analysis highlights that current energy market designs may lead to an increase in negative electricity prices by 2030, which could raise bid prices for onshore wind by 17% if flexibility mechanisms are not introduced. The report recommends predictable auction rounds, de minimis rules for small investors, and inflation-indexed subsidies to lower costs and maintain a broad investor base.
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Document type: Report
It’s Official: The United Kingdom is to subsidize nuclear power, but at what cost?
The report argues that the UK government is providing a comprehensive package of subsidies for Hinkley Point C that creates significant financial uncertainty and risk for the public. These include a long-term price guarantee, loan guarantees, and caps on waste disposal and liability costs, which the authors suggest could make nuclear power more expensive than renewable alternatives.
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Document type: Report
Solar PV on packhouses
The document argues that solar PV installations on packhouses are financially viable, particularly for larger systems, due to high daytime energy needs for cooling. It provides a model of financial feasibility and four case studies demonstrating electricity cost reductions and CO2 emissions avoidance. The brief also outlines the regulatory and technical requirements for feeding excess electricity back into the grid within various Western Cape municipalities.
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Document type: Briefing
Recent Developments in Egypt’s Fuel Subsidy Reform Process
In July 2014, Egypt implemented significant energy subsidy cuts, including a 64% increase in diesel prices, as part of a five-year plan to eliminate most energy subsidies. The reforms aimed to reduce the budget deficit and signal economic stability to investors. While the cuts caused an initial spike in inflation and public discontent among lower-income groups and transport operators, the broader economic outlook improved, and large-scale protests were avoided. The report notes that the government's compensation measures were limited and ad hoc, and that the success of future reforms will depend on more robust social safety nets and the management of politically sensitive products like liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
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Document type: Report
THE ECONOMICS OF LOAD DEFECTION
The analysis finds that grid-connected solar-plus-battery systems will become the lowest-cost option for many customers within 10-15 years, potentially causing massive revenue losses for utilities. In the Northeast U.S. alone, potential residential and commercial kWh sales erosion by 2030 could reach 58 million MWh and 83 million MWh respectively. The report argues that eliminating net metering or adding fixed charges only delays this outcome. To avoid a future of stranded assets and high costs for non-adopters, the authors advocate for an 'integrated grid' featuring locational and temporal pricing, performance-based regulation, and the monetization of distributed energy resource (DER) values.
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Document type: Executive summary
THE ECONOMICS OF LOAD DEFECTION
The analysis finds that grid-connected solar-plus-battery systems will rapidly become cost-effective, potentially leading to significant load defection that could undermine utility revenues and create stranded assets. The report argues that the electricity system is at a 'fork in the road,' where current regulatory and pricing models will either lead to fragmented grid defection or an integrated grid where distributed energy resources (DERs) provide value back to the system.
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Document type: Report
The Natural Gas Gamble
The report examines the transition of the U.S. power sector from coal to natural gas, highlighting that while this shift provides immediate reductions in some pollutants, it creates long-term risks including price volatility, methane leakage, and stranded assets. Through modeling three scenarios—Business as Usual, a Carbon Standard, and a Carbon Standard plus Renewables and Efficiency Policies—the authors find that a diversified energy mix is the most economically and environmentally sound approach. The 'Carbon Standard plus Renewables and Efficiency Policies' scenario is projected to reduce power plant carbon emissions by 70% below 2005 levels by 2040 and generate net societal benefits of nearly $170 billion by that year. The report recommends strengthening the EPA's Clean Power Plan, implementing federal renewable electricity and energy efficiency standards, and increasing regulations on fugitive methane emissions.
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Document type: Report
THE CARBON-CUTTING POWER OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) proposes a 'Demonstrated Growth Approach' to replace the EPA's conservative renewable energy targets in the Clean Power Plan. The UCS argues that the EPA underestimates the cost-effectiveness and deployment rates of wind and solar power. By adopting the UCS methodology, the EPA could increase the 2030 share of renewable energy in U.S. electric sales from 12 percent to 23 percent, potentially increasing total power sector emissions reductions from 30 percent to approximately 40 percent below 2005 levels. The brief asserts that these higher targets are affordable, with minimal impact on consumer electricity prices and a potential 9 percent reduction in the national average price of natural gas for the electricity sector by 2030.
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Document type: Policy brief
RATE DESIGN FOR THE DISTRIBUTION EDGE
The report argues that traditional bundled, volumetric block rates are obsolete for a grid with increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) because they fail to reflect the temporal and locational value of electricity. It proposes evolving rate design along three continuums: attribute unbundling (separating energy and capacity), temporal granularity (moving toward real-time pricing), and locational granularity (addressing distribution 'hot spots'). The authors suggest a transition strategy using a combination of evolving default rates and opt-in alternatives, supported by third-party technologies to maintain a simple customer experience. Recommendations for regulators include increasing data transparency, enhancing valuation methodologies for DER attributes, and establishing clear timelines for rate transitions.
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Document type: Research paper
RATE DESIGN FOR THE DISTRIBUTION EDGE
The report advocates for transitioning from traditional bundled, volumetric block rates to more granular pricing to incentivize the efficient deployment and operation of distributed energy resources (DERs). It proposes a pathway of incremental sophistication across three continuums: attribute unbundling, temporal granularity, and locational granularity. The document outlines six evolutionary pricing options, ranging from near-term possibilities like Time-of-Use pricing to longer-term, sophisticated models such as Distribution Locational Marginal Pricing, suggesting that technology and third-party providers can manage the resulting complexity for the end customer.
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Document type: Executive summary
The Context of Fossil-Fuel Subsidies in the GCC Region and Their Impact on Renewable Energy Development
The report analyzes fossil-fuel subsidies in the GCC, noting that low energy pricing serves a political social contract but leads to domestic over-consumption and fiscal pressure. Using IEA, IMF, and GSI data, it estimates total subsidies in 2011 at over US$105 billion, with Saudi Arabia as a primary driver. The document argues that underpricing fossil fuels creates a significant barrier to renewable energy by making conventional thermal power appear cheaper and distorting the market for investors.
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Document type: Research paper
Unpublished letter to Economist responding to 12 Oct 2013 cover story “How to lose €500 billion,”
The author contends that European electric utilities' financial losses result from failed investment strategies and a failure to adapt to disruptive renewable technologies rather than the technologies themselves. The letter highlights the macroeconomic benefits of renewables in Germany, the technical feasibility of high renewable penetration in Denmark, Spain, and Portugal, and the global trend of non-hydro renewables outproducing nuclear power. It suggests that utilities need new revenue models, such as bidirectional value tariffs, to survive the transition to a decarbonised, distributed energy system.
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Document type: Statement
Evaluation of Two Alternative Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies: A Stochastic Model
The research paper assesses the economic viability of CCS technologies in the UK, specifically comparing CO2-EOR paired with DSF storage against standalone DSF storage. Using a stochastic model calibrated with UK futures market data for electricity, oil, and carbon allowances, the authors find that only the EOR-paired option is potentially profitable, provided long-term oil prices remain high. The study highlights that current carbon prices are insufficient to incentivize standalone CCS and that the option to delay investment increases the required 'trigger price' for oil to make immediate investment optimal.
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Document type: Research paper
The Platinum Sector Peace and Stability Accord: Solution or Reprieve?
The Platinum Sector Peace and Stability Accord aims to end violence and lawlessness at South African platinum mines by committing signatories to denounce intimidation and forbid weapons on mining property. While it provides a framework for managing conflict and addressing the 'winner-takes-all' union recognition system—which has fueled rivalry between the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU)—it does not address systemic industry crises. The sector faces stagnant global demand, oversupply, and rising input costs, with electricity prices increasing by 238% since 2007. Consequently, the industry faces grim short-to-medium term prospects, including potential large-scale job losses through restructuring at companies like Anglo Platinum.
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Document type: Research paper
How Much Does CCS Really Cost?
The analysis finds that while immediate CCS installation can increase the cost of electricity (COE) by 24% to 36%, a phased approach—delaying full installation by 10 years—can reduce this premium to 13% to 19%. The lowest cost scenario is achieved when captured CO2 is sold for enhanced oil recovery (EOR).
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Document type: Research paper
Effects of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in Germany on European Electricity Exchange and Welfare
The study finds that CCS deployment in Germany would lower spot market electricity prices and reduce imports from France, Belgium, and Poland, while increasing producer and consumer surpluses.
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Document type: Research paper
Employment effects of coal ash regulation
The report critiques a study by the Utility Solid Waste Action Group (USWAG) which claimed that strict coal ash regulation could lead to the loss of 183,900 to 316,000 jobs. The author argues these figures are based on arithmetic errors, a misapplication of an unpublished academic paper, and unfounded claims regarding 'regulatory stigma'. Using the IMPLAN model and a high-end cost estimate from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) of $6.47 billion annually, the author calculates that the spending required for waste management, wastewater treatment, and construction would create 117,000 jobs, while the resulting electricity price increases would cause a loss of 89,000 jobs. The final result is a projected net gain of 28,000 jobs.
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Document type: Research paper
Regulation of Cooling Water Intake Structures at Existing Facilities
The authors argue that the EPA's cost-benefit analysis for cooling water intake structures (CWISs) is fundamentally flawed due to the systematic underestimation of environmental benefits and the overestimation of costs. By incorporating a wider range of non-use values, correcting recreational value estimates based on the Bay Shore Power Plant study, and using revised cost estimates from Powers Engineering, the authors demonstrate that the most stringent regulatory options (Options 2 and 3) can yield positive net benefits. They further contend that the economic impact on electricity rates would be minimal and that stricter regulation would actually be more beneficial for national GDP and employment. Finally, they strongly oppose the use of site-specific calculations, suggesting instead a national standard with a higher threshold (e.g., 500 MGD) to protect smaller facilities while maintaining high environmental benefits.
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Document type: Statement
NUCLEAR POWER: Still Not Viable without Subsidies
The report argues that the U.S. nuclear power industry has relied on extensive taxpayer and ratepayer subsidies for over 50 years, which often exceed the value of the energy produced. It details how these subsidies shift construction, operating, and long-term risks—such as waste management and accident liability—from private investors to the public. The document concludes that continuing this pattern with new reactors would be an expensive 'leap of faith' that could divert resources from more cost-effective climate change mitigation options.
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Document type: Report
The Economic Impact of AB 32 on Localities
The report concludes that AB 32 will have a minimal economic impact on the City of Chula Vista and similar California municipalities. Direct energy cost increases are projected to be small, with the 'Conservative case' estimating that the budget could be restored by collecting just $1.97 more per resident annually by 2020. Indirect macroeconomic effects, including changes in employment and output, are estimated to be less than 1%. The authors argue that these impacts are negligible compared to the budget shocks caused by the 2007 economic downturn and the potential long-term costs of climate change inaction.
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Document type: Report