The Economic Impact of AB 32 on Localities

The report concludes that AB 32 will have a minimal economic impact on the City of Chula Vista and similar California municipalities. Direct energy cost increases are projected to be small, with the 'Conservative case' estimating that the budget could be restored by collecting just $1.97 more per resident annually by 2020. Indirect macroeconomic effects, including changes in employment and output, are estimated to be less than 1%. The authors argue that these impacts are negligible compared to the budget shocks caused by the 2007 economic downturn and the potential long-term costs of climate change inaction.

• AB 32 is expected to have a minimal impact on Chula Vista and other California cities because local governments are generally not energy-intensive, with energy expenditures representing a small portion of their total budgets.
• In a 'Conservative case' scenario, the direct energy cost increase from AB 32 relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) baseline would represent only 0.15% of Chula Vista's projected 2020 revenue.
• The cost of implementing AB 32 in Chula Vista could be fully offset by an annual per-resident revenue increase of $1.97 by 2020 in the Conservative case, or $7.54 in an 'Extreme case'.
• Under a business-as-usual scenario without AB 32, energy prices in California are projected to rise significantly over the next decade: electricity by 43%, transportation fuel by 58%, and natural gas by 71%.
• Indirect macroeconomic impacts of AB 32 on Chula Vista's non-energy sectors are estimated to be minor, with projected decreases of 1.03% in economic value, 0.77% in labor income, and 0.48% in employment.
• The report argues that the costs of inaction regarding greenhouse gas emissions could be far higher than the costs of implementing AB 32, citing potential expenses for adapting to sea-level rise and increased heat.
• The authors critique the 'Tanton Report' for using arbitrary assumptions and lacking transparency, specifically regarding its projections of electricity price increases and the impact of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

APA

Weiss, J., & Sarro, M. (2010). The Economic Impact of AB 32 on Localities. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/economic-impact-of-ab32-on-cities%5B1%5D.pdf

Chicago

Weiss, Jurgen, and Mark Sarro. The Economic Impact of AB 32 on Localities. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2010. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/economic-impact-of-ab32-on-cities%5B1%5D.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Weiss |first1=Jurgen |last2=Sarro |first2=Mark |title=The Economic Impact of AB 32 on Localities |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=December 2010 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/economic-impact-of-ab32-on-cities%5B1%5D.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{weiss2010economic, author = {Weiss, Jurgen and Sarro, Mark}, title = {{The Economic Impact of AB 32 on Localities}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2010}, month = dec, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/economic-impact-of-ab32-on-cities%5B1%5D.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }