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The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) defends its analysis of South Africa's fiscal position against claims by Tim Cohen, arguing that the National Treasury's narrative of an acute fiscal crisis is being used to justify budget cuts that would harm the vulnerable and hinder long-term growth.

The document argues that planned budget cuts in South Africa are misguided and dangerous, potentially slowing economic growth and undermining social protection. The authors contend that the current 'fiscal crisis' is manageable through alternative measures, such as drawing on reserves, increasing short-term borrowing, and raising revenue from high earners and corporate tax adjustments, rather than indiscriminate spending cuts.

A coalition of civil society organisations and policy analysts opposes the South African National Treasury's plan for immediate, indiscriminate budget cuts to address revenue shortfalls and expenditure overruns. The authors argue that such cuts would stifle economic growth, worsen unemployment and hunger, and fail to reduce debt-to-GDP ratios. They propose alternative solutions, including drawing on the SA Reserve Bank's gold and foreign exchange contingency reserve account, reducing tax breaks for high earners, and implementing a wealth tax, while calling for a transparent, evidence-based budget review process over 12 months.

The document argues that planned budget cuts in South Africa are misguided and dangerous, potentially slowing economic growth and undermining social protections. The signatories contend that the current 'fiscal crisis' is exaggerated, noting that the projected R53 billion revenue shortfall is comparable to previous years. They propose alternative solutions to close budget mismatches, such as drawing on the SARB’s Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account, reducing tax breaks for high earners, and implementing a wealth tax.

The briefing argues that while external debt restructuring has established frameworks, domestic debt restructuring lacks guiding principles, often leaving the process to be dominated by the strongest political voices, typically foreign creditors. It proposes that DDR be integrated into domestic adjustment programs with full consultation and ownership, and that its implementation be based on rigorous cost-benefit analyses anchored in Debt Sustainability Analyses. The author emphasizes that the primary goal of any DDR should be the protection of long-term economic growth and poverty reduction gains, ensuring that the burden of adjustment is shared fairly between domestic and foreign creditors to avoid macroeconomic or social 'doom-loops'.

The Institute for Economic Justice argues that South Africa is not facing an unprecedented fiscal crisis, despite claims from the National Treasury. While revenue for 2023/24 is projected to grow by only 0.55% (missing targets by R54.2-billion) and spending is expected to exceed budgets by between R67.8-billion and R105.8-billion, the document asserts these deviations are consistent with historical norms. It contends that the overspend results from inadequate planning, specifically regarding public sector wages and essential social services. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of 71.4% in 2022/23, the document claims South Africa's debt levels are in line with emerging market averages, although debt service costs remain unusually high. The authors warn that austerity measures and budget cuts would hamper economic growth and increase long-term debt vulnerability, recommending instead a developmental fiscal policy focused on employment, poverty reduction, and productive capacity.

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) argues that South Africa's projected budget deficit of 6.29% for 2023/24 is within historical norms and does not constitute a financial crisis. The IEJ estimates a revenue shortfall of R52.4 billion and an expenditure overrun between R67.9 billion and R105.8 billion, the latter driven largely by a R37.5 billion public sector wage bill increase. To close this gap without resorting to GDP-contracting budget cuts, the IEJ proposes utilizing the Reserve Bank's Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account, increasing short-term borrowing, and raising revenue by removing tax breaks for high-income earners and corporates. The IEJ warns that fiscal contractions larger than 1.5% of GDP can lead to long-term negative effects on GDP and urges the protection of social programmes like the Social Relief of Distress grant.

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) asserts that South Africa's current revenue shortfall and expenditure overspend are within historical norms and do not constitute a 'fiscal crisis'. The IEJ estimates a revenue shortfall of R67.2 billion and an expenditure overspend of R67.9 billion for 2023/24, noting that the debt-to-GDP ratio of 71.4% in 2022/23 is comparable to the emerging market average of 69%. The document warns that indiscriminate budget cuts exceeding 1.5% of GDP could cause significant economic contraction. To resolve budget mismatches without austerity, the IEJ suggests utilizing the Reserve Bank’s Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account, increasing short-term borrowing, removing tax breaks for high-income earners and corporates, and restructuring Eskom debt.

The Institute for Economic Justice criticizes the South African National Treasury for presenting expenditure cuts as the only solution to a 'fiscal cliff'. The author argues that austerity leads to the collapse of critical services, increased poverty, and long-term GDP decline. Proposed alternatives include removing tax breaks for high earners, returning the corporate income tax rate to 28%, and lowering borrowing costs through state-mandated lending and capital controls.

The document argues that South Africa is not in an acute fiscal crisis, as current revenue shortfalls and expenditure overruns are within historical norms. It criticizes the National Treasury's commitment to austerity and poor planning, particularly regarding the public sector wage bill. The authors suggest that the real issue is a 'growth crisis' rather than a debt crisis, noting that the debt-to-GDP ratio is comparable to other emerging markets. To resolve budget gaps, the brief recommends utilizing the SARB's Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account, increasing borrowing, restoring the corporate income tax rate to 28%, and introducing wealth taxes, while cautioning against VAT increases.

The document argues that South Africa's current budget mismatch is within historical norms and does not constitute an acute fiscal crisis. It identifies a projected revenue shortfall of R67.2 billion and an expenditure overspend of R67.9 billion, attributing the latter largely to poor planning by the National Treasury. While the debt-to-GDP ratio (71.4% in 2022/23) is comparable to emerging market averages, the authors warn that the rising cost of debt and lack of economic growth create a medium-term sustainability risk. To resolve the mismatch without cutting public services, the brief recommends utilizing the R459 billion in the SARB's Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account, restoring the corporate income tax rate to 28%, removing tax breaks for high-income earners, and implementing a progressive wealth tax.

The Horn of Africa is characterized by a very young population and high fertility rates, particularly in Somalia. Only Djibouti has currently reached the working-age to dependent ratio necessary to potentially realize a demographic dividend. The region is predominantly rural, with Ethiopia being the most rural and Djibouti the most urbanized. High youth populations combined with limited economic opportunities are identified as contributors to socio-political instability.

The DR Congo faces exceptionally high levels of extreme and multidimensional poverty, with forecasts suggesting it will fail to meet 2030 Sustainable Development Goals on its current path. Despite modest declines in extreme poverty between 2005 and 2018, the country remains one of the world's poorest, with significant regional variations and a growing urban poverty phenomenon.

The report evaluates three development scenarios for Tunisia—'Going for Growth', 'Leapfrogging', and 'Sustainability & Equality'—against a baseline 'Current Path' for 2040. All three scenarios are projected to increase GDP and reduce extreme poverty, with 'Going for Growth' offering the highest GDP boost (30%) and 'Sustainability & Equality' providing the most significant reductions in extreme poverty, inequality, and carbon emissions. However, the report highlights critical trade-offs: 'Going for Growth' and 'Leapfrogging' are expected to increase carbon emissions and leave the country vulnerable to international food price shocks, while all scenarios must contend with increasing industrial, municipal, and agricultural water demand in a water-stressed environment.

The report analyzes Tunisia's demographic transition, noting a decline in fertility rates and an aging population. While the country experienced a peak demographic dividend in 2011, an opaque economic system has prevented these human capital gains from translating into income growth and formal employment. The report warns that a shrinking youth bulge may reduce social unrest, but an aging population will increase healthcare costs for non-communicable diseases.

The document analyzes the transition of poverty conceptualization from a moralistic, legal status to a functional, multidimensional experience. It details the influence of Enlightenment optimism, Cold War-era development theories, the neoliberal 'Washington Consensus', and the eventual shift toward human-centric and intersectional frameworks.

The document analyzes the 'demographic departure' between China, whose population peaked in 2022 and is declining, and Africa, whose population is projected to grow significantly. It examines China's 'getting old before getting rich' strategy—a two-tier approach focusing on capturing a low-wage demographic dividend while preparing for an aged society through education and healthcare investments. The author argues that African nations should adopt similar cointegrated economic-demography strategies to avoid productivity stagnation and leverage new market opportunities created by ageing global populations.

The document advocates for a Universal Basic Income Guarantee (UBIG), defined as a government commitment to ensure all adults receive a regular payment sufficient to meet basic needs. It argues that UBIG is not merely a safety net but a tool for economic empowerment and growth. Evidence from Kenya, Zambia, Mexico, and Namibia is cited to show that guaranteed income allows people to invest in education, start small businesses, and increase agricultural production. Furthermore, the text highlights a 'multiplier effect' where cash transfers stimulate local economies, citing examples from Ghana and Zambia where spending by low-income recipients boosted local business activity and overall national income.

The document outlines a mixed-methods approach to forecasting the impact of COVID-19 in Africa to 2030. It utilizes the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to compare three scenarios against a pre-pandemic baseline, focusing on economic growth, per capita income, poverty, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This quantitative analysis was supplemented by qualitative dialogues involving experts and practitioners focusing on 15 representative African countries. The methodology included validation through a project reference group, questionnaires, and presentations to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and public health experts to synthesize inter-disciplinary perspectives.

The document contends that social grants do not cause labour market withdrawal but instead increase agency and the ability to search for work. It provides evidence from South Africa and other low-and middle-income countries showing that cash transfers can stimulate local economic growth, increase self-employment, and improve human capital. The text argues that a universal basic income guarantee (UBIG) is necessary to address immediate hunger and gender injustice, as it supports unpaid care work and provides workers with an 'exit option' from exploitative employment.