The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

This report section analyzes Tunisia's demographic trends and their socio-economic implications up to 2040, highlighting a transition toward an ageing population and the failure to translate human capital into economic growth.

• Tunisia's population is projected to grow from 11.8 million in 2019 to 13.3 million by 2040. The population is characterized as being largely urban, well educated, and older than the average for Other Low and Middle Income Countries (OLMICs) and most other countries in the MENA region.
• The total fertility rate (TFR) in Tunisia has declined significantly from approximately seven children per woman at independence to about two by 2005, driven by social reforms, family planning, the Code of personal status, and the liberalisation of abortion laws. TFR is expected to drop below the replacement level of 2.1 in the early 2020s, leading to a shrinking working-age population (15–64 years) and an increase in the elderly population (65 years and over).
• Tunisia reached its peak demographic dividend in 2011 with a ratio of 2.3 working-age people per dependant, which has since fallen to 2.0 and is expected to remain stable until 2040. However, this ratio has not resulted in income growth due to an opaque economic system dominated by vested interests and limited competition.
• The 'youth bulge' (adults aged 15 to 29) is shrinking rapidly, which may reduce the risk of social unrest compared to the period preceding the Freedom and Dignity Revolution, when rapid growth in the working-age population without sufficient jobs proved destabilising.
• An ageing population will increase the necessity for higher health spending to manage both communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as cancer, which require more sophisticated and costly resources.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=04-population

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=04-population.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=04-population |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=04-population}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }