The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

The report analyzes Tunisia's demographic transition, noting a decline in fertility rates and an aging population. While the country experienced a peak demographic dividend in 2011, an opaque economic system has prevented these human capital gains from translating into income growth and formal employment. The report warns that a shrinking youth bulge may reduce social unrest, but an aging population will increase healthcare costs for non-communicable diseases.

• Tunisia's population is projected to grow from 11.8 million in 2019 to 13.3 million by 2040. The total fertility rate (TFR) has declined significantly due to social reforms, family planning, and the liberalisation of abortion laws, with the TFR expected to drop below the replacement level of 2.1 children in the early 2020s.
• The country reached its peak demographic dividend in 2011 with a ratio of 2.3 working-age people per dependant. This ratio has since fallen to two and is expected to remain stable until 2040, yet this has not resulted in expected income growth due to an opaque economic system dominated by vested interests and limited competition.
• While a rapid increase in the working-age population combined with a lack of jobs was destabilising prior to the Freedom and Dignity Revolution, the current rapid shrinkage of the 'youth bulge' (adults aged 15-29) is likely to lower the risk of future social unrest.
• Tunisia faces a future need for increased health spending to manage a dual burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as cancer, as the population ages rapidly.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=04-population

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=04-population.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=04-population |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=04-population}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }