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India needs to build system flexibility to absorb high and variable renewable generation, moving beyond simple capacity additions. The report identifies three primary levers: improving the flexibility of the coal fleet by lowering minimum technical limits, scaling energy storage (BESS and pumped hydro), and accelerating demand-side flexibility through smart meter deployment and attractive time-of-day tariffs.

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) criticizes a $100 million DOE funding opportunity, "Improving Efficiency, Reliability, and Flexibility of Coal-Based Power Plants," for diverting funds from carbon capture innovation to refurbish aging coal plants. CATF asserts this violates the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), which mandates the development of transformational carbon capture technologies. Instead, CATF proposes that the DOE leverage the Office of Hydrocarbon and Geothermal Energy (HGEO) and the Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) to prioritize enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and the build-out of CO2 pipelines. The document highlights that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) of 2025 has increased the 45Q tax credit for EOR to $85 per ton, creating a timely opportunity for deployment, particularly in Wyoming and North Dakota. CATF recommends using Other Transaction Authority (OTA) and FAST-41 permitting to accelerate infrastructure development and hosting industry convenings in Q1 2026 to better align funding notices with industry needs.

The report analyzes the financial needs and current tools supporting the low-carbon transition of China's coal power sector, which is estimated to require over ten trillion yuan in funding. It evaluates existing domestic transition finance catalogs and debt instruments, compares them with international standards—such as those in Singapore and ASEAN—and examines multilateral mechanisms like JETP and ETM. The document concludes with six action recommendations to improve standard systems, optimize financing mechanisms, and leverage the leadership of central enterprises to ensure a credible and just transition.

In 2025, global coal capacity grew by 3.5% while generation fell by 0.6%, a divergence driven primarily by China and India. While new commissioning reached near-record levels of 97.4 GW, coal is increasingly used as 'system insurance' rather than a primary energy source. The global pipeline is narrowing geographically, with only 32 countries proposing or building new plants in 2025, and 95% of all construction concentrated in China and India. Meanwhile, the U.S. and EU saw significant delays in planned retirements, though for different reasons: federal emergency orders in the U.S. and energy security concerns in the EU. Latin America reached 'No New Coal' status in 2025, while South Korea committed to a phaseout by 2040.

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) contends that the Department of Energy's (DOE) "Restoring Reliability: Coal Recommissioning And Modernization" funding opportunity redirects up to $350 million from carbon capture pilot programs to maintain aging coal plants without requiring carbon capture installation. CATF argues that targeting plants scheduled for retirement before 2032 makes carbon capture infeasible due to the 3-7 year construction timeline and the 12-20 year operational period needed to recover capital costs. Furthermore, the document states that allocating $350 million across up to five plants is too diluted, as a single large-scale retrofit often exceeds $500 million. CATF recommends that the DOE limit eligibility to plants expected to operate beyond 2040 and mandate explicit capture performance requirements to meet the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) mandate for two coal-based carbon capture demonstrations.

The document highlights the Amazon solar farm in Rajasthan, India, which has 210MW of capacity and avoids an estimated 280,000 tonnes of CO2e annually by providing zero-carbon electricity to a carbon-intensive grid. It argues that expanding renewable energy in coal-reliant systems is a highly effective way to reduce power-sector emissions and improve air quality.

Carbon Market Watch argues that Verra's VM0052 methodology for coal transition credits is flawed and risks issuing low-quality credits that do not represent real emission reductions. The briefing identifies critical failures in additionality testing, baseline setting, leakage prevention, and just transition safeguards, specifically highlighting risks in the Philippines' energy context. It recommends a total suspension of the methodology until significant revisions are made to prevent overissuance and carbon leakage.

Carbon Market Watch concludes that Verra's VM0052 methodology for coal-to-clean carbon credits is inadequate and should not be used to issue credits in its current form. The report identifies critical risks of carbon leakage, over-estimation of emission reductions due to static baseline assumptions, and potential double counting. It also finds that the 'just transition' requirements are too vague and susceptible to manipulation, particularly regarding benefit-sharing and worker compensation. Using the South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation (SLTEC) project in the Philippines as a case study, the report illustrates how independent power producers could build new coal plants to replace retired capacity, nullifying climate benefits. The author urges Verra to suspend the methodology and implement substantive revisions.

Carbon Market Watch argues that Verra’s VM0052 methodology for coal transition credits is significantly flawed and should be put on hold. The briefing identifies critical risks of carbon leakage due to low renewable energy pairing requirements, weaknesses in baseline-setting and additionality tests, and inadequate safeguards against double issuance. It also finds that just transition provisions are unreliable, particularly regarding benefit-sharing and stakeholder mediation. Using a case study of the South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation (SLTEC) in the Philippines, the document illustrates how the methodology could allow for the overissuance of credits that do not represent real emission reductions.

The report analyzes the role of Global North private equity firms in maintaining fossil fuel assets across the Global South, highlighting a pattern of extracting profits while offloading environmental and social risks onto local communities. Using data from the 2024 Climate Risk Scorecard, it identifies 13 firms with assets in 32 Global South countries, with a significant concentration of risky assets in Latin America, particularly Mexico. The document details specific instances of pollution in India, social displacement in Brazil, and financial instability in the Philippines, while providing a comprehensive case study on Mexico's LNG and pipeline infrastructure. It concludes that the private equity model's lack of transparency and short-term focus exacerbate climate injustice and expose institutional investors, such as public pensions, to significant financial risk.

Earthjustice responds to a DOE request for information on accelerating power delivery for AI and industrial growth. The organization argues against reviving retired coal plants due to high costs and unreliability, instead advocating for the rapid deployment of wind, solar, and battery storage. It recommends that the DOE address speculative and inflated data center load forecasts, automate interconnection studies to reduce timelines, and deploy Advanced Transmission Technologies (ATTs) to increase grid capacity quickly. Additionally, it emphasizes the need for early community engagement in permitting and the long-term expansion of interregional transmission lines.

Indonesia faces a significant funding gap to meet its 2030 climate targets, requiring approximately $19 billion annually. Between 2019 and 2023, investment in fossil fuel power plants was nearly double that of renewable energy, heavily driven by international private finance. While renewable energy investment is dominated by baseload sources like hydro and geothermal, variable RE such as solar and wind began growing in 2021. A critical challenge is the rise of captive fossil-fuel power plants used for nickel processing, which are exempt from certain coal-fired power plant bans.

India's coal fleet is shifting from baseload to flexible balancing to integrate rising solar and wind energy. By FY 2031–32, coal plants will need to operate closer to their technical minimums, with a projected average plant load factor (PLF) drop from 69% to 55%. This transition will disproportionately impact high-cost, less efficient units, suggesting that the 35 GW of coal capacity currently under construction is sufficient for supply security without further additions.

The report argues that as India expands solar and wind capacity, coal's role will shift from baseload provider to a flexible balancing resource, leading to lower plant load factors (PLFs) and higher effective costs. By FY 2031-32, coal-based electricity is projected to be roughly 25% costlier than in FY 2024-25. The analysis suggests that the ~35 GW of coal capacity currently under construction is sufficient for reliability, making further coal expansion uneconomical compared to firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) and storage options.

The report finds that nominee companies, primarily branches of major global banks, mask the ownership of fossil fuel assets in Australia, obscuring approximately 18% of the national fossil fuel CO2 emissions. It highlights that these structures allow investors, including superannuation funds, to maintain stakes in high-emitting projects while avoiding public scrutiny, and notes that Australian law currently lacks regulations to require the disclosure of the actual shareholders behind these nominees.

The report analyzes a new purchase guarantee for domestic coal power plants in Turkey, which will provide a price of 75 USD/MWh for 60% of their electricity production until 2030. This mechanism is estimated to cost 8.7 billion USD and represents a 12% increase over the average sales price of the last year. The document highlights that these plants will continue to receive support through the existing capacity mechanism regardless of whether they generate electricity, meaning the new guarantee exceeds the total costs determined by TEİAŞ by 27%.

The report contends that using carbon credits to close coal plants replicates past failures of offsetting mechanisms, which often generate fictitious credits and allow polluters to continue operating. It argues that the primary goal of these markets is the exchange of credits rather than actual emission reductions. Instead of using offsets to buy out investors, the document recommends ending financial services for new coal projects, removing barriers to sustainable energy deployment, avoiding full public indemnification of stranded assets, and implementing sector-wide coordinated coal exits.

The document outlines a framework for financing a just energy transition in Indonesia, emphasizing the need to address socioeconomic risks for workers and communities affected by the retirement of coal power plants. It highlights the potential for renewable energy to create between 2.1 million and 3.7 million direct jobs by 2030 and notes a total investment requirement of approximately USD 97 billion to meet 2030 climate targets. The proposed framework focuses on 'restorative justice' through preventative actions, such as reskilling and debt refinancing, and transformative actions, such as green job creation and the development of renewable energy cooperatives.

Between 2019 and 2023, Indonesia's power sector saw total reported investments of USD 38.02 billion, with fossil fuels (FF) dominating at 62% of the share. The report highlights a significant gap in 'unreported' investment in captive coal-fired power plants (CFPPs), estimated at USD 10.63 billion. While renewable energy (RE) investment reached USD 8.85 billion, it remains concentrated in baseload sources like hydropower and geothermal. Private international financial institutions are the primary drivers of fossil fuel investment, whereas RE is increasingly supported by domestic private sources. Analysis of PLN reveals that coal plants account for 46% of annual operating costs, and PLN-owned solar plants suffer from severe inefficiency with a capacity factor of only 4% compared to a 16% benchmark.

The report argues that standard top-down cost estimation methods for energy transitions often overlook socio-spatial factors and marginalized groups. It proposes a new framework that identifies specific losses (recognitional justice), determines preventative and transformative spending (restorative justice), assigns cost burdens (distributive justice), and ensures stakeholder consensus (procedural justice). Using the planned early retirement of the Cirebon 1 coal-fired power plant as a case study, the report demonstrates how to map direct, indirect, and induced impacts across individuals, companies, and governments to more accurately calculate the financial requirements of a just transition.