Melangkah di Atas Bara Membara: Desember 2025 Akankah Kredit Karbon Transisi Batu Bara Verra Membuahkan Hasil bagi Iklim?

Carbon Market Watch concludes that Verra's VM0052 methodology for coal-to-clean carbon credits is inadequate and should not be used to issue credits in its current form. The report identifies critical risks of carbon leakage, over-estimation of emission reductions due to static baseline assumptions, and potential double counting. It also finds that the 'just transition' requirements are too vague and susceptible to manipulation, particularly regarding benefit-sharing and worker compensation. Using the South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation (SLTEC) project in the Philippines as a case study, the report illustrates how independent power producers could build new coal plants to replace retired capacity, nullifying climate benefits. The author urges Verra to suspend the methodology and implement substantive revisions.

• The VM0052 methodology creates a high risk of carbon leakage because it only requires a small portion of lost power capacity to be replaced by renewables—starting at 10% and rising to at least 40% by the end of the first credit period—allowing the remainder to be replaced by other fossil fuels.
• There is a significant risk of leakage because the commitment to not build new coal plants applies only to government-owned utilities, leaving a gap where private independent power producers (IPPs) can expand or build new coal facilities.
• Baseline emission estimates are likely to be overestimated because the methodology relies on static assumptions for electricity production and prices, failing to account for dynamic market changes and the decreasing cost of renewables.
• The methodology is vulnerable to double counting of emission reductions, as it lacks coordination mechanisms to prevent both a coal retirement project and a separate renewable energy project from claiming credits for the same mitigation.
• The 'just transition' framework is flawed due to a benefit-sharing rule based on net rather than gross income, which allows developers to manipulate reported profits to reduce payments to affected stakeholders.
• The use of retrospective 'common practice' analysis to prove additionality is unsuitable for countries like the Philippines with young coal fleets, as it ignores future closure commitments in favor of historical data.

APA

Wyburd, I. (2025). Melangkah di Atas Bara Membara: Desember 2025 Akankah Kredit Karbon Transisi Batu Bara Verra Membuahkan Hasil bagi Iklim? Carbon Market Watch. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Final_ID_Walking-on-hot-coal_-combined-compressed.pdf

Chicago

Wyburd, Inigo. Melangkah di Atas Bara Membara: Desember 2025 Akankah Kredit Karbon Transisi Batu Bara Verra Membuahkan Hasil bagi Iklim? Carbon Market Watch, 2025. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Final_ID_Walking-on-hot-coal_-combined-compressed.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wyburd |first1=Inigo |title=Melangkah di Atas Bara Membara: Desember 2025 Akankah Kredit Karbon Transisi Batu Bara Verra Membuahkan Hasil bagi Iklim? |publisher=Carbon Market Watch |date=December 2025 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Final_ID_Walking-on-hot-coal_-combined-compressed.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wyburd2025melangkah, author = {Wyburd, Inigo}, title = {{Melangkah di Atas Bara Membara: Desember 2025 Akankah Kredit Karbon Transisi Batu Bara Verra Membuahkan Hasil bagi Iklim?}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2025}, month = dec, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Final_ID_Walking-on-hot-coal_-combined-compressed.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }