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The report argues that achieving the EU's 2050 climate targets requires a broad portfolio of innovative production processes, material substitution, and efficiency gains. It proposes an integrated policy approach combining EU ETS reform—specifically the 'inclusion of consumption' to ensure carbon price pass-through—with public procurement and targeted innovation support, such as carbon contracts for differences, to overcome investment risks and the 'technology valley of death'.

The report proposes 'Inclusion of Consumption' (IoC) as a way to ensure carbon prices are reflected in the cost of materials like steel and cement, which are currently shielded by free allowance allocations in emissions trading schemes. By adding a charge to the consumption of these materials based on benchmarks, the IoC aims to incentivize material efficiency and innovation without harming competitiveness. The authors argue that IoC is administratively feasible, compliant with WTO law, and qualifies as an environmental regulation under EU law.

The report analyzes base metal beneficiation in Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia, comparing their outcomes with the successful industrial policies of Japan and China. It argues that China's state-led expansion of smelting and refining capacity has caused a 'Great Compression' of margins, making autonomous beneficiation in Africa commercially unattractive. The study concludes that African countries can only succeed in beneficiation through comprehensive industrial policies and strategic partnerships, particularly with Chinese state-owned enterprises.

The policy brief argues that current carbon pricing mechanisms, which use free allowances to prevent carbon leakage in industrial sectors, eliminate the price signal for mitigation beyond primary production efficiency. To address this, the authors propose 'Inclusion of Consumption,' where a consumption charge is levied on carbon-intensive materials (such as steel, aluminum, and clinker) based on benchmark emission values and the carbon price. This charge would apply to all domestic consumption regardless of origin, making it compatible with WTO law. The mechanism would use duty suspension arrangements to track materials through the value chain, with the charge becoming due only when the good is released for consumption. The brief notes precedents in Asia (South Korea, China, Tokyo) regarding electricity consumption and discusses potential implementation in Europe and the United States.

The Basque Country exhibits a high resource dependency, with a Total Material Requirement of 108 tons per capita in 2004, 83% of which is imported. This consumption pattern drives significant environmental and social degradation abroad, including oil spills in Nigeria, deforestation for palm oil in Indonesia, toxic pollution from nickel mining in Russia, and watershed degradation from tin mining in Bolivia. The document argues that the economic prosperity of developed regions is linked to an unsustainable use of global resources and calls for a transformation in consumption and production patterns to meet basic human needs without exceeding planetary limits.

The report assesses how carbon pricing affects the competitiveness and investment strategies of energy-intensive industries (EIIs). It finds that while carbon costs are a factor, they are often secondary to energy and raw material prices. The analysis highlights the risk of carbon leakage, where production shifts to regions with lower emissions costs, particularly as demand grows in Asia. The report emphasizes that current short-term policy horizons, such as the EU's 2020 targets, are insufficient for the 20- to 40-year investment cycles typical of these sectors, suggesting a need for longer-term regulatory certainty and support for breakthrough technologies like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).

The research paper evaluates the economic and emissions impacts of increasing the EU's 2020 GHG reduction target to 30%. Using the E3MG model, it focuses on three energy-intensive sectors: iron and steel, aluminium, and cement. The findings indicate that while a 30% target significantly increases EU ETS allowance prices, there is no evidence of substantial carbon leakage through import substitution. Border adjustment measures partially protect EU output but have a negligible macroeconomic impact, as the affected sectors collectively account for less than 1% of EU GDP.

The report analyzes the aluminium sector's exposure to carbon leakage, finding that while the sector as a whole is trade-intensive, the risk varies by product. Unwrought non-alloy aluminium is identified as particularly vulnerable due to high trade and CO2 intensity, whereas secondary aluminium and semi-fabricated products pose lower risks. The study highlights a shift in primary production capacity toward China and the Middle East, while the EU27 remains a leader in recycling but continues to export scrap to China.

The document examines the relationship between vehicle weight, fuel efficiency, and safety. It argues that lightweighting can significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions—potentially by up to 11% if combined with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and a clean grid—without compromising occupant safety. The author contends that vehicle size and design, rather than mass, are the primary drivers of crashworthiness. The paper reviews statistical literature to debunk the 'weight confers safety' argument and provides examples of aluminum, high-strength steel, and carbon fiber composites being used in safe, lightweight vehicles.

The document assesses the challenges of the EU's proposed CBAM based on incurred emissions, noting that it fails to fully address carbon leakage for exports and value chains. It proposes an alternative 'climate contribution' based on standardised carbon intensity factors, which would act as an excise charge that can be passed along the supply chain and waived for exports. This model, combined with Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfDs) funded by CBAM revenues, is presented as a way to create immediate investment incentives for climate-neutral production of materials like steel, cement, and aluminium.

The analysis examines how US universal and sectoral tariffs affect Latin American countries, noting that while Mexico and Central American nations face higher effective tariff rates, South American nations are more vulnerable to indirect shocks from China. It highlights that China's ability to implement counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate US tariff impacts will determine the stability of commodity prices and growth in South America.