Aranceles de EE.UU. Golpean Con Fuerza a América Latina —la Respuesta política de China puede ser aún más importante

This research paper analyzes the impact of US tariffs on Latin American economies and the subsequent indirect risks posed by China's economic response. The authors argue that while direct US tariffs heavily affect Mexico and Central America, the greater risk for South American nations lies in a potential decline in Chinese demand for raw materials resulting from US-China trade tensions.

• US tariffs have a direct and varied impact on Latin American countries, with effective tariff rates (ETR) differing from announced rates due to product exemptions. Mexico, Brazil, and most Central American countries face ETRs above 10%, while others like Bolivia, Ecuador, Colombia, and Chile benefit from lower rates due to exemptions on specific commodities such as tin, oil, and copper.
• Mexico is specifically targeted by 'fentanyl tariffs' of 25%, but its actual effective tariff rate is considerably lower because nearly half of its exports to the US are exempt under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC).
• South American countries face a significant indirect risk from the US-China trade conflict because China has become the primary trading partner for most of the subregion. As of 2024, China accounted for approximately 28% of South America's total exports, compared to 16% for the United States.
• China's ability to mitigate the economic impact of US tariffs—which the authors calculate as the world's highest effective rate at 32.2%—depends on its fiscal and monetary policies. However, China is constrained by a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 100% and a real estate crisis that limits the People's Bank of China's ability to lower interest rates without risking financial stability.

APA

Rojas-Suarez, L., & Albe, I. (n.d.). Aranceles de EE.UU. Golpean Con Fuerza a América Latina —la Respuesta política de China puede ser aún más importante. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/es/articles/policy-analysis/us-tariffs-latin-america-china-policy-response

Chicago

Rojas-Suarez, Liliana, and Ignacio Albe. Aranceles de EE.UU. Golpean Con Fuerza a América Latina —la Respuesta política de China puede ser aún más importante. International Institute for Sustainable Development, n.d. https://www.iisd.org/es/articles/policy-analysis/us-tariffs-latin-america-china-policy-response.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rojas-Suarez |first1=Liliana |last2=Albe |first2=Ignacio |title=Aranceles de EE.UU. Golpean Con Fuerza a América Latina —la Respuesta política de China puede ser aún más importante |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |url=https://www.iisd.org/es/articles/policy-analysis/us-tariffs-latin-america-china-policy-response |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rojassuarezndaranceles, author = {Rojas-Suarez, Liliana and Albe, Ignacio}, title = {{Aranceles de EE.UU. Golpean Con Fuerza a América Latina —la Respuesta política de China puede ser aún más importante}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/es/articles/policy-analysis/us-tariffs-latin-america-china-policy-response}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }