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THE ECONOMICS OF LOAD DEFECTION
The analysis finds that grid-connected solar-plus-battery systems will become the lowest-cost option for many customers within 10-15 years, potentially causing massive revenue losses for utilities. In the Northeast U.S. alone, potential residential and commercial kWh sales erosion by 2030 could reach 58 million MWh and 83 million MWh respectively. The report argues that eliminating net metering or adding fixed charges only delays this outcome. To avoid a future of stranded assets and high costs for non-adopters, the authors advocate for an 'integrated grid' featuring locational and temporal pricing, performance-based regulation, and the monetization of distributed energy resource (DER) values.
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Document type: Executive summary
THE ECONOMICS OF LOAD DEFECTION
The analysis finds that grid-connected solar-plus-battery systems will rapidly become cost-effective, potentially leading to significant load defection that could undermine utility revenues and create stranded assets. The report argues that the electricity system is at a 'fork in the road,' where current regulatory and pricing models will either lead to fragmented grid defection or an integrated grid where distributed energy resources (DERs) provide value back to the system.
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Document type: Report
Response to “J.P.”’s column “New numbers, same conclusion” posted 22 August 2014 on The Economist Online’s “Free exchange”
The document argues that Dr. Charles R. Frank Jr.'s analysis of electricity technology costs is based on outdated and methodologically flawed assumptions. Amory Lovins asserts that updating nine key variables—including capital costs and capacity factors for solar and wind power—would reverse Frank's conclusions. Lovins specifically critiques the use of national average costs, which he claims are inflated by atypical projects and do not reflect modern competitive practice.
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Document type: Statement
An initial critique of Dr. Charles R. Frank, Jr.’s working paper “The Net BeneAits of Low and No-‐Carbon Electricity Technologies,” summarized in The Economist as “Free exchange: Sun, wind and drain”
The author argues that Dr. Charles R. Frank, Jr.'s analysis incorrectly concludes that nuclear and gas combined-cycle plants are more beneficial than wind and solar. By replacing Frank's data with empirical figures from the EIA and DOE, the author asserts that the priority for carbon savings actually shifts to hydro, wind, gas combined-cycle, nuclear, and solar. The critique highlights significant underestimations of renewable productivity and overestimations of gas and nuclear costs and reliability.
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Document type: Research paper
Roadmap to a Low Carbon Electricity System in the U.S. and Europe
The report argues that the 19th-century utility model, designed for centralized fossil-fuel generation, is ill-suited for the 21st-century transition to low-carbon energy. It identifies critical challenges across five business segments: generation, transmission, market operation, distribution, and customer management. A central thesis is that current investor-owned utility (IOU) and independent power producer (IPP) financial structures inflate the cost of renewables by imposing risk-return requirements tailored to fossil fuels. The author proposes shifting toward 'YieldCos', municipal financing, and crowdsourced investment to match the bond-like, long-term cash flow profiles of renewable projects, which could potentially reduce the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by approximately 20%.
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Document type: Report
Finance Mechanisms for Lowering the Cost of Renewable Energy in Rapidly Developing Countries
The document argues that high debt costs in rapidly emerging economies can increase the cost of utility-scale wind and solar PV projects by 24-32%. It proposes two primary solutions: indexing renewable energy tariffs to foreign currencies to attract lower-cost international capital by mitigating currency hedging costs, and implementing government-backed concessional debt programs to reduce the total support required to make projects viable. The report provides detailed analysis of these mechanisms using India as a primary case study, suggesting that these interventions could lower the cost of renewable energy support by up to 30%.
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Document type: Report
San Giorgio Group Case Study: Jädraås Onshore Windfarm
The Jädraås Onshore Windfarm, the largest in Scandinavian Europe at its May 2013 commissioning, was financed through a total of EUR 360 million in private investment. To overcome limited commercial bank lending capacity during the economic recession, a 'Synthetic Loan' structure was created: the Danish export credit agency (EKF) provided an AAA-rated state-backed guarantee that enabled the pension fund PensionDanmark to provide EUR 120 million in debt. The project's viability was further secured by the Swedish renewable electricity certificate scheme, providing a 15-year revenue stream. Risk was managed through hedging contracts for power and certificates and a 15-year operations and maintenance contract with turbine provider Vestas. The report argues that this model is replicable for other green infrastructure projects if simple structures and risk-coverage mechanisms are employed.
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Document type: Case study
La Ruta hacia el Futuro para la Energía Renovable en Centroamérica
The report analyzes the energy landscape of Central America, noting a contradictory trend where the region leads in geothermal and hydroelectric power but faces increasing dependence on imported fossil fuels. It argues that while the region has the potential to meet 100% of its electricity needs through renewables, significant gaps in data, administrative inefficiency, and fossil fuel subsidies hinder progress. The document recommends integrating technical resource assessments with socio-economic analysis (LCOE+), simplifying bureaucratic processes through 'single-window' permitting, and strengthening regional interconnection via SIEPAC to manage variability in wind and solar power.
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Document type: Report
The Way Forward for Renewable Energy in Central America
The report analyzes the energy landscape of Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama, noting a growing dependence on imported fossil fuels despite significant renewable potential. It highlights that while the region leads in hydropower and geothermal energy, resources like wind and solar remain underutilized. The document identifies critical gaps in resource data, socioeconomic assessments, and administrative efficiency, while recommending a 'long, loud, and legal' policy approach to attract investment and achieve a 100 percent renewable electricity grid.
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Document type: Report
San Giorgio Group Case Study: Ouarzazate I CSP
The Ouarzazate I CSP project in Morocco utilizes a public-private partnership (PPP) model and significant concessional financing from international financial institutions (IFIs) to overcome the commercial unviability of CSP technology. The project is designed as the first phase of a larger portfolio to drive down costs and eventually enable renewable energy exports to the European Union. Key success factors include the creation of the Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy (MASEN), strong donor coordination, and a risk-sharing framework that allocates operational risks to private developers and revenue risks to the public sector.
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Document type: Case study
Big Risks, Better Alternatives
The report argues that the Levy and Vogtle nuclear projects carry significant financial risks for ratepayers and taxpayers due to potential cost escalations and delays. It finds that both Florida and Georgia could meet their projected energy demand growth more cost-effectively through aggressive energy efficiency targets and the development of renewable energy resources, which are presented as lower-risk and lower-cost alternatives to the Westinghouse AP1000 reactor design.
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Document type: Report
Review of the Additionality of the CDM Project 4785: Guangdong Pinghai Power Plant, China
The Sierra Club CDM Watch requests that the CDM Executive Board reject the registration of the Guangdong Pinghai Power Plant in China. The authors argue the project is non-additional because it was operational before validation, ultra-supercritical coal technology is already common practice in China, and the project's financial analysis is flawed, failing to consider alternative tariff structures or realistic coal price fluctuations.
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Document type: Statement
Wind and Solar Power 101
The document provides an introductory overview of wind and solar energy, detailing how photovoltaic and turbine technologies convert natural elements into electricity. It highlights the transition from utility-scale to rooftop installations, the challenge of intermittency, and the significant cost reductions in solar and battery technology between 2009 and 2019. The text argues that renewables support more jobs per unit of electricity than fossil fuels and are essential for reaching net-zero emissions to avoid dangerous global warming.
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Document type: Guide
The Nuclear Illusion
The paper contends that nuclear power is experiencing a global collapse due to excessive capital costs and financial risks, making it unfinanceable in private markets. It asserts that 'negawatts' (energy efficiency) and 'micropower' (distributed renewables and cogeneration) are cheaper, faster to deploy, and more reliable alternatives. The authors argue that investing in nuclear power actually worsens climate change by diverting funds from more cost-effective carbon-reduction options. The document further claims that nuclear power fails to enhance energy security due to dependencies on foreign uranium and fuel-cycle technology, and increases proliferation risks.
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Document type: Research paper
ACCELERATING SOLAR POWER ADOPTION
The document outlines the necessity of rapid solar PV growth to meet climate targets, identifying high costs as a primary barrier. It proposes a multi-dimensional approach to reduce manufacturing costs by a factor of two or more using lean manufacturing, whole systems design, and end-use efficiency. Additionally, it emphasizes the need to professionalize rooftop installation and calls for government support through stable demand and standardized regulations to avoid supply chain bottlenecks.
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Document type: Report
Behind the Meter Solar PV
The document outlines how to assess the cost-competitiveness of behind-the-meter solar PV, noting that parity is achieved when the average cost of energy equals or is less than the retail electricity price. It highlights a common third-party ownership model in the United States that removes upfront costs for consumers and provides a glossary of key energy finance and planning terms.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Utility-Scale Renewable Energy
The document outlines the criteria for determining when utility-scale renewable energy is cost-competitive compared to traditional power sources, emphasizing the importance of the perspective used for comparison. It defines cost parity from three viewpoints: for end-use consumers via Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), against other technologies filling the same capacity need based on average cost of energy or risk, and against the current wholesale market generation mix based on average wholesale prices during production times.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Understanding Renewable Energy Cost Parity
The document defines 'cost parity' as the cost-competitiveness between renewable energy and traditional electricity supply. It outlines specific criteria for determining competitiveness based on the deployment model: behind-the-meter generation is competitive when its average cost equals or is less than the retail price (plus backup savings in developing economies); Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are competitive when the price is lower than or equal to the retail price; and wholesale generation is competitive in the long-run when its average cost equals average wholesale costs.
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Document type: Fact sheet