Search Climate Insights Directory

The analysis of 163 INDCs reveals that countries frequently use 'small share' of global emissions and per capita emissions as equity indicators for mitigation, while vulnerability is a primary argument for adaptation. However, most equity claims are unsubstantiated or based on internal expertise, with a lack of independent evidence or consideration of the aggregate global impact of these individual approaches.

Carbon Market Watch urges COP23 negotiators to phase out the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to prevent the use of credits that lack environmental integrity and could increase overall emissions. The organization advocates for strong rules for Article 6 to ensure net mitigation and protect human rights, and calls for the integration of aviation and shipping sectors into the Paris Agreement's transparency and accounting frameworks to avoid double counting and emissions increases from schemes like CORSIA.

The briefing describes the effort at COP23 to develop the 'Paris rulebook', which establishes how governments implement Paris Agreement requirements. Key components include transparency frameworks for reporting emissions and adaptation, accounting rules for global impact, the global stocktake mechanism, and the communication of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Major sticking points include balancing flexibility for developing countries without returning to a bifurcated approach, clarifying the scope of processes like loss and damage, and addressing the lack of data capacity in developing nations. The goal for COP23 is to produce a document of key decision points and a 2018 roadmap to finalize the guidelines in Poland.

Carbon Market Watch argues that international aviation and shipping emissions (bunkers emissions) must be accurately tracked within the Paris Agreement framework to prevent double counting of emission reductions. The organization recommends that Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) include a specific section for contributions outside their scope and that the UNFCCC formally cooperate with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) regarding the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Furthermore, it proposes that the global stocktake incorporate data from ICAO and International Maritime Organization (IMO) reports to assess collective progress toward long-term temperature goals.

The document examines the gap in the Paris Agreement regarding fossil fuel supply and proposes mechanisms to address it. It suggests that countries could use Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Long-Term Strategies (LTSs) to articulate production phase-downs. The authors argue that such actions would provide clearer signals to financial markets, foster international norms, and support a just transition for affected workers. The paper identifies several entry points within the Paris Agreement, including the enhanced transparency framework, the global stocktake, and finance reform, while acknowledging that consensus-based decision-making in the UNFCCC may require a 'coalition of the willing' to lead by example.

The briefing identifies four critical areas for the development of the Paris Agreement Rulebook: NDC communications regarding mitigation and adaptation, the enhanced transparency framework for reporting and review, the design of the Global Stocktake, and the operational modalities for implementation and compliance. It emphasizes the need for a pragmatic approach that accounts for differing national capacities and the integration of non-governmental stakeholders to ensure the Agreement is implemented effectively and fairly.

The briefing outlines the role of the 2018 Facilitative Dialogue (FD 2018) as the first progress assessment under the Paris Agreement. It emphasizes the need for a process that combines technical and political components, incorporates inputs from non-state actors and multilateral institutions, and utilizes the IPCC special report on 1.5 degrees C to signal a collective commitment to enhanced climate ambition by 2020.

The document outlines the structural and methodological questions countries must address to implement the global stocktake, the five-year cycle designed to assess collective progress toward the Paris Agreement's goals. It emphasizes the need for common methodologies to aggregate diverse mitigation commitments, a framework for tracking context-specific adaptation progress, and clear modalities for accounting for public and private finance flows. The author argues that the stocktake must be both backward-looking (assessing progress) and forward-looking (identifying opportunities for enhanced action) to serve as the 'engine' of the Paris Agreement.

Carbon Market Watch argues for the integration of international aviation and shipping emissions into the Paris Agreement's transparency and review mechanisms. The organization recommends that NDCs include a specific section for contributions outside their scope and that states make corresponding adjustments to national inventories when emission reductions are used for international targets like CORSIA. Furthermore, it calls for the inclusion of bunker fuel burn and offset data in the global stocktake and the transparency framework to ensure environmental integrity and avoid double counting.

The policy brief critiques CORSIA for focusing on offsetting growth above 2020 levels rather than reducing overall sector emissions. It highlights the risk of double counting since offsets are sourced from countries with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. The author recommends that ICAO implement a 'negative list' for harmful project types and a public registry, while urging the UNFCCC to integrate aviation's efforts into the Global Stocktake and Facilitative Dialogue to ratchet ambition toward the 1.5°C goal.

The research paper introduces a comprehensive assessment framework designed to evaluate the ambition of post-2020 greenhouse gas emission reduction proposals, specifically Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). By applying various assessment approaches to the proposals of China, the EU, and the US, the authors demonstrate that while individual results vary, clear trends emerge. The framework is intended to support the Paris Agreement's requirement for regular reviews and the global stocktake process, addressing a current lack of comprehensive assessment methods.

The document asserts that meeting the Paris Agreement's goals of keeping warming "well below 2°C" requires a phase-down of coal, oil, and natural gas production. It identifies six primary mechanisms within the UNFCCC framework to achieve this: incorporating supply-side targets in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), planning managed declines in long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LTSs), tracking extraction via the global stocktake, providing technical capacity-building support, redirecting finance away from fossil fuel infrastructure, and providing developed-country assistance to developing nations for economic transitions.

The statement emphasizes that ICAO's CORSIA must be aligned with the UNFCCC's Paris Agreement framework, specifically regarding transparency, accounting for Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and the global stocktake, to ensure that carbon credits are not double-counted by 2018.

The paper examines the alignment between the African Group of Negotiators' (AGN) vision for a Global Goal for Adaptation (GGA) and the provisions of the Paris Agreement. It argues that while the Agreement establishes a GGA and recognizes the link between mitigation and adaptation, significant technical and political work is required to operationalise it. Key recommendations include establishing minimum information requirements for adaptation components of Nationally Determined Contributions (a-NDCs) to enable the aggregation of data for the global stocktake, and developing sector-specific risk metrics to track progress. The authors emphasize the need for 'material parity' between mitigation and adaptation, ensuring that adaptation support is adequate, transparent, and based on scientific temperature scenarios.

Carbon Market Watch argues that the ICAO's CORSIA scheme must be integrated into the Paris Agreement's transparency and reporting mechanisms. The author recommends that NDCs include sections on contributions outside the UNFCCC, that national inventories be adjusted to prevent double counting of offsets, and that aviation emissions and CORSIA progress be included in the global stocktake and synthesis reports.

The document outlines a framework for designing the global stocktake, a periodic review process under the Paris Agreement. It proposes four critical areas of focus for the Ad hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement (APA): determining the necessary information inputs, establishing operational modalities to ensure transparency and accountability, defining the outputs required to inform future actions, and ensuring the process effectively drives increased climate ambition and implementation support.

The document analyzes the Paris Agreement's achievements and outlines a detailed pathway for operationalizing its ten core elements: mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, finance, technology transfer, capacity building, transparency, global stocktake, compliance, and cooperative approaches. It emphasizes the need for clear accounting rules, scaled-up finance, and robust transparency frameworks to ensure environmental integrity and increase ambition over time.

The Paris Agreement replaces top-down binding targets with a hybrid system of non-binding Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and mandatory review processes. Because NDCs are not legally binding, the document argues that the review systems are the primary tools for generating information and applying political pressure to ensure countries meet their commitments. The brief identifies critical unresolved details regarding the Article 13 transparency framework, the Article 14 global stocktake, and the Article 15 implementation and compliance mechanism, suggesting options for their operationalization to increase global climate ambition.

The document argues that non-state actors—including cities, companies, and non-profits—can provide independent expertise and accountability to strengthen the Paris Agreement's review mechanisms. It specifically examines the enhanced transparency framework, the implementation and compliance mechanism, and the global stocktake, suggesting that formalizing the role of non-state actors through public access, written submissions, and oral interventions would improve the effectiveness of these processes.

The document presents the Transnational Climate Impacts (TCI) Index, which measures country-level exposure to climate risks transmitted across borders. It identifies four primary risk pathways—biophysical, finance, people, and trade—and argues that globalization makes even wealthy, low-vulnerability countries susceptible to transnational climate shocks. The authors advocate for integrating these risks into national adaptation plans and UNFCCC processes to enhance global cooperation and adaptation finance.