Addressing fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC: Paris and beyond

The document examines the gap in the Paris Agreement regarding fossil fuel supply and proposes mechanisms to address it. It suggests that countries could use Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Long-Term Strategies (LTSs) to articulate production phase-downs. The authors argue that such actions would provide clearer signals to financial markets, foster international norms, and support a just transition for affected workers. The paper identifies several entry points within the Paris Agreement, including the enhanced transparency framework, the global stocktake, and finance reform, while acknowledging that consensus-based decision-making in the UNFCCC may require a 'coalition of the willing' to lead by example.

• The Paris Agreement is currently silent on the specific methods for phasing down the production or combustion of coal, oil, or gas, despite these being the primary drivers of greenhouse gas emissions.
• Most of the world's top ten fossil-fuel-producing nations do not include supply-side constraints in their NDCs; only India is noted for including a coal cess (tax) on extracted and imported coal.
• Long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LTSs) submitted by countries such as Canada, France, Germany, Mexico, the US, and Benin focus on demand-side measures and lack explicit maps for phasing down extraction.
• The authors propose an extraction-based accounting framework as a parallel system to the existing territorial approach to better track the alignment of fossil fuel supply with climate goals.
• Integrating fossil fuel phase-downs into the UNFCCC could strengthen financial market signals, reducing the risk of over-investment in 'brown' technologies and facilitating a shift toward 'green' finance.
• The 'response measures' track and the Forum on the 'Impact of the Implementation of Response Measures' provide a venue for planning a just transition for workers in the extractive industries.
• Current energy investment is heavily skewed toward fossil fuels, with over 1 trillion US dollars invested in 2015, highlighting the need to align finance flows with low-GHG pathways.
• The authors suggest that a 'coalition of the willing' among nations could lead the transition by adopting supply-side targets, as the UNFCCC's consensus-based decision-making may be blocked by major producer nations.

APA

Piggot, G., Erickson, P., Lazarus, M., & van Asselt, H. (2017). Addressing fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC: Paris and beyond. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2017-WP-addressing-fossil-fuel-production.pdf

Chicago

Piggot, Georgia, Peter Erickson, Michael Lazarus, and Harro van Asselt. Addressing fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC: Paris and beyond. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2017. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2017-WP-addressing-fossil-fuel-production.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Piggot |first1=Georgia |last2=Erickson |first2=Peter |last3=Lazarus |first3=Michael |last4=van Asselt |first4=Harro |title=Addressing fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC: Paris and beyond |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=September 2017 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2017-WP-addressing-fossil-fuel-production.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{piggot2017addressing, author = {Piggot, Georgia and Erickson, Peter and Lazarus, Michael and van Asselt, Harro}, title = {{Addressing fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC: Paris and beyond}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2017}, month = sep, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-2017-WP-addressing-fossil-fuel-production.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }