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The document argues that while methane abatement is a cost-effective near-term strategy to limit global warming, capital deployment in the oil and gas sector is significantly lagging behind the targets required for the IEA's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. It proposes a framework for using use-of-proceeds (UoP) bonds, key performance indicator (KPI)-linked bonds, and conventional debt with methane-related covenants to bridge this investment gap. The authors highlight the critical role of National Oil Companies (NOCs) and the need for credible, science-based guardrails to mitigate greenwashing and fungibility risks.

The Guidance for Including Methane Abatement in Oil and Gas Debt Structuring offers a framework for using debt capital markets to fund emissions reductions in the oil and gas sector. It specifically targets National Oil Companies (NOCs) and independent producers, providing detailed criteria for qualifying projects in use-of-proceeds (UoP) instruments and defining core and secondary key performance indicators (KPIs) for KPI-linked instruments. The document emphasizes the need for measurement-based quantification, external verification by subject matter experts, and guardrails to prevent greenwashing and 'transferred emissions' during asset mergers and acquisitions.

The report analyzes the emergence of 'hydrogen readiness'—the declared ability of infrastructure to use hydrogen in the future—within EU law, private finance, and national policies. It argues that the concept is often used as a 'Trojan horse' to justify the continued construction and subsidization of fossil gas assets. The author identifies significant risks, including carbon lock-in, price volatility, and external energy dependencies, and concludes that the term should be abandoned unless assets can use 100% hydrogen from the outset.

Indonesia's RUKN 2024-2060 projects a coal capacity increase of 26.8 GW by 2031, primarily driven by over 20 GW of new captive coal plants for mineral processing. This expansion is expected to push coal generation to a peak of 494 TWh in 2037, contradicting the country's Low Carbon Scenario and JETP targets. The report highlights that new captive coal is more expensive than grid-connected coal and renewables, while lacking the emissions reporting and trading requirements imposed on the grid. It recommends reassessing captive coal plans, enforcing stricter emissions standards, and accelerating renewable energy deployment to avoid carbon lock-in.

The document analyzes how Colombia and Nigeria use narratives of development, energy security, and energy transition to maintain dependence on fossil fuels. It argues that these narratives are often inaccurate or outdated, contributing to 'carbon lock-in'. The briefing suggests that civil society and researchers can counter these claims by demanding transparency, highlighting the benefits of renewables, and promoting science-based alternatives for a just transition.

The document analyzes the economic, political, and governance challenges of phasing out coal in Indonesia, emphasizing the need for multi-level coordination, economic diversification for affected workers, and the removal of coal subsidies to enable a just energy transition.

India is pursuing a "build now, decarbonize later" strategy in its steel industry, focusing on expanding capacity through emissions-intensive blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) routes. This approach risks creating stranded assets valued between US$124187 billion and locking in high emissions due to a young fleet of blast furnaces. While the government has introduced roadmaps for green steel and energy efficiency, the document argues that deep decarbonization requires a fundamental shift away from coal toward green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) and increased scrap-based secondary production.

The document analyzes how Colombia and Nigeria employ narratives of development, energy security, and energy transition to justify oil and gas production, arguing that these stories often rely on inaccurate or outdated premises that entrench carbon dependency. It suggests that civil society and researchers can counter these narratives by demanding transparency, challenging flawed evidence, and promoting science-based alternatives for a just transition.

The document examines the socio-economic and political challenges of phasing out coal in Indonesia, highlighting the role of artificial price caps, political 'revolving doors', and limited government planning capacity. It proposes the creation of a Just Energy Transition Support Facility under Bappenas to coordinate governance, finance, and economic diversification, while advocating for the removal of coal subsidies and the reform of the electricity market to favor renewable energy.

The report highlights that China's steel industry requires at least 1.6 trillion yuan (approximately 220 billion USD) in fixed asset investment to achieve decarbonisation by 2050. While technical feasibility for zero-carbon steel exists, high costs remain a barrier. The document argues that transition finance, carbon pricing mechanisms like the EU's CBAM, and green public procurement are essential to drive investment toward deep decarbonisation technologies, such as low-carbon hydrogen, and to avoid 'carbon lock-in' as 78% of existing coal-based blast furnace capacity requires reinvestment by 2030.

The 2024 'Pedal to the Metal' report by Global Energy Monitor finds a significant shift toward lower-emissions electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking in new announcements, with 93% of newly announced capacity following this route. However, a substantial gap exists between announcements and construction, as less than 14% of potential EAF capacity is currently being built, and 46% of projects under construction remain based on basic oxygen furnaces (BOF). While direct reduced iron (DRI) now makes up 36% of developing ironmaking capacity, 308 mtpa of new coal-based blast furnace capacity is still under development globally, primarily driven by India and China, posing a risk of carbon lock-in.

Carbon Market Watch supports the draft Delegated Act on permanent carbon capture and usage (CCU) within the EU ETS, praising its strict permanence criteria and 'white-list' approach for products. However, it warns that the 'end of life' criteria must account for CO2 release via deterioration and calls for greater transparency in how products are added to or removed from the approved list.

The 2024 Global Steel Plant Tracker and Global Blast Furnace Tracker data show a growing momentum toward electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, with 49% of capacity under development using this route. However, significant carbon lock-in risks persist as 308 mtpa of new coal-based blast furnace capacity is under development, primarily in Asia. India has surpassed China as the top overall steel developer, though China remains the largest operator of emissions-intensive capacity. While direct reduced iron (DRI) capacity is increasing, its climate impact depends on the transition to green hydrogen reducing agents, as much current capacity relies on methane or coal.

The report argues that labelled transition finance is currently stalled by 'transition-washing'—where finance is provided to entities without a credible plan to reach net zero. It identifies root causes such as a lack of scientifically robust, geography-specific emissions pathways and the prevalence of non-binding voluntary standards. Using sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) and Japanese transition-labelled bonds as case studies, the author highlights issues like unambitious targets, immaterial penalties, and reliance on non-credible technologies like ammonia co-firing. To address this, the report recommends six guardrails: preparing national Paris-aligned pathways, establishing robust classification standards, building external verification capacity, implementing mandatory regulatory thresholds for protected labels, empowering regulators to penalise transition-washing, and enacting systemic reforms such as mandating transition plans for large firms.

The report finds that Canadian institutions provided between CAD 7.6 billion and CAD 13.5 billion annually to the fossil fuel sector from 2020 to 2022, while providing only CAD 147 million annually for domestic renewable energy. It identifies Export Development Canada (EDC) as the primary provider of this finance and highlights a critical lack of transparency in reporting. The authors recommend a comprehensive policy that covers the entire fossil fuel life cycle, includes existing investments like the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion, and precludes funding for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and blue hydrogen. The report suggests redirecting these funds toward clean electricity and Indigenous-led generation to support Canada's energy transition.

The document assesses the viability of Canadian LNG expansion, concluding that it is incompatible with climate goals and economically precarious. It highlights that new facilities would increase domestic emissions and potentially strand assets due to a projected global supply glut and declining demand in advanced economies. The brief specifically notes that Canadian projects face higher production costs than competitors in Qatar and the United States, making them reliant on substantial public subsidies. It recommends a shift in investment toward green industries to avoid economic shocks and environmental damage.

Global Energy Monitor identifies 74 new oil and gas projects that could emit 2.4 million metric tonnes of methane annually by 2030, potentially undermining the Global Methane Pledge. The analysis reveals significant discrepancies between these potential emissions and the company-wide figures reported by operators to the OGMP 2.0, suggesting widespread underreporting of assets or methane intensity. A small number of fields in Saudi Arabia and Guyana account for a disproportionate share of these emissions, while new EU regulations on imported oil and gas are expected to impact many of these developments.

The document analyzes the global landscape of fossil fuel subsidies (FFS), noting that they typically total around $600 billion annually and double during price crises. It argues that FFS drive greenhouse gas emissions and market distortions, and that the WTO is uniquely positioned to facilitate reform through transparency, capacity building, and the development of international disciplines. The author prioritizes the reform of subsidies for transport consumers, residential consumers, and oil and gas producers, while emphasizing the need for just transition principles to protect vulnerable populations, particularly in developing countries.

The report examines how International Climate Finance (ICF) can better support sectoral transitions in emerging economies, arguing that current architecture is limited by insufficient funding and a reliance on loans that increase sovereign debt. Through case studies of Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa, it highlights the need for ICF designs that account for sectoral characteristics, cross-sectoral linkages, and economy-wide transition needs to avoid carbon lock-ins and support just energy transitions.

The Canadian Climate Institute examines how to integrate oil and gas decarbonization projects into a proposed national Climate Investment Taxonomy. While most global taxonomies focus on 'green' labels for net-zero activities, the authors advocate for a 'transition' category to unlock funding for hard-to-decarbonize sectors. The paper suggests a high-bar approach using specific criteria to ensure projects align with 1.5°C pathways and avoid carbon lock-in, focusing on three key areas: Scope 3 emissions risks, the distinction between new and existing facilities, and the alignment of project lifespans with climate targets.