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The Future of Building Heat and the Natural Gas Network in a Net Zero Canada
The report details the use of the North American TIMES Energy Model (NATEM) to identify the most cost-effective technology combinations for decarbonizing Canada's building sector. It establishes a core 'Optimal NZ50' scenario targeting 440 Mt of emissions in 2030 and 10 Mt by 2050, while outlining seven sensitivity analyses covering heat pump costs, retrofit levels, and hydrogen integration. The modelling accounts for regional differences across 13 jurisdictions, incorporating detailed load curves, climate change temperature forecasts, and a comprehensive database of over 7,000 technologies.
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Document type: Report
Costing the Ultralite in Volume Production: Can Advanced Composite Bodies-in-White Be Affordable?
The paper investigates whether advanced composite bodies-in-white (BIW) can be affordable for mass production, using the GM Ultralite as a case study. It employs Technical Cost Modeling to compare a composite monocoque with a steel unibody across manufacturing, operation, and post-use phases. The analysis finds that while material costs for carbon fiber are high, they can be offset by significantly lower tooling and equipment costs, especially when using 'soft' composite tooling and rapid-curing technologies. The study concludes that composite BIWs can be cost-competitive with steel at carbon-fiber prices around $11/kg ($5/lb) with modest mass reductions, and are already more competitive in total lifecycle costs at production volumes below 75,000 units per year.
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Document type: Research paper
BARBADOS ENERGY TRANSITION & INVESTMENT PLAN
The Barbados Energy Transition and Investment Plan (ETIP) identifies a net-zero emissions (NZE) target by 2035 as the most feasible pathway for the nation. Achieving this goal requires a total capital investment of BBD 19 billion by 2040, with the transport sector accounting for approximately BBD 17.3 billion of this total. The transition is expected to be driven by the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), onshore wind, solar PV, and blue hydrogen, while utilizing bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in the industry sector to offset residual emissions. The plan projects that NZE 2035 will result in fuel cost savings of BBD 15.6 billion and create approximately 1,500 new jobs above business-as-usual levels by 2035. Key policy recommendations include implementing mandatory building energy codes, establishing a national electric mobility roadmap, and developing a governance structure featuring an Energy Transition Office to coordinate cross-ministerial implementation.
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Document type: Report
BEYOND THE 100% ASSUMPTION: ADJUSTING OnSSET TO REFLECT GRID RELIABILITY COSTS
The document introduces updates to the OnSSET tool to move beyond the assumption of 100% grid reliability. It proposes two proxies for the cost of non-supplied electricity: a parametric Cost of Non-Served Energy (CNSE) penalty and a diesel back-up system model. Testing in eastern Uganda shows that incorporating these reliability costs shifts the 'least-cost' preference from grid extension toward off-grid solutions, with the diesel back-up approach causing more significant shifts in technology mix and increasing total estimated investment by approximately 20%.
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Document type: Report
The Healthy Farmland Diet: How Growing Less Corn Would Improve Our Health and Help America Heartland
The technical appendices describe the use of a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) general equilibrium model to simulate the effects of adopting the MyPlate and Harvard Healthy Eating Plate dietary guidelines. The analysis focuses on the resulting shifts in U.S. crop acreage, specifically the reduction of cereal grain production in favor of fruits, vegetables, and other crops. Key findings include a projected 8% decline in U.S. cereal grain acreage under the Harvard scenario and significant changes in land rental rates and production levels for various food sectors.
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Document type: Report
The Economic Case for Landscape Restoration in Latin America
The report argues that large-scale landscape restoration in Latin America and the Caribbean is economically attractive, estimating a net present value of $23 billion over 50 years for the restoration of 20 million hectares. The analysis identifies agricultural productivity gains and carbon sequestration as the primary drivers of economic value, though results vary significantly by biome and degree of degradation. The study emphasizes that such efforts are critical for the region to achieve a low-carbon development path and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change.
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Document type: Report