The Healthy Farmland Diet: How Growing Less Corn Would Improve Our Health and Help America Heartland

The technical appendices describe the use of a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) general equilibrium model to simulate the effects of adopting the MyPlate and Harvard Healthy Eating Plate dietary guidelines. The analysis focuses on the resulting shifts in U.S. crop acreage, specifically the reduction of cereal grain production in favor of fruits, vegetables, and other crops. Key findings include a projected 8% decline in U.S. cereal grain acreage under the Harvard scenario and significant changes in land rental rates and production levels for various food sectors.

• Under the Harvard Healthy Eating Plate scenario, U.S. cereal grain production would fall by 13%, leading to an 8% decline in cereal grain acreage, which equates to nearly 8 million acres.
• The MyPlate scenario results in a 2% increase in U.S. cereal grain production because the rise in milk production outweighs the decreases in poultry and cattle production, resulting in negligible impacts on cereal grain acreage.
• Shifting demand toward fruits and vegetables increases U.S. farmland rental rates across several sectors: cereal grains by 156%, sugarcane by 176%, other crops by 131%, oilseeds by 129%, and other grains by 93%.
• To meet MyPlate recommended levels for fresh fruits and vegetables, the model calculates that consumption in the GTAP "Vegetables and Fruits" sector would need to increase by 173%.
• The Harvard scenario's impact on land values is significant, with decreases of 29% for cereal grains, 21% for sugarcane, 19% for oilseeds, 17% for other crops, and 15% for other grains.
• The study's acreage estimates for fruit and vegetable increases are lower than those in previous studies, such as Buzby, Wells, and Vocke (2006) and Young and Kantor (1999), partly because the model allows for increases in labor and capital rather than proportional acreage increases.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (n.d.). The Healthy Farmland Diet: How Growing Less Corn Would Improve Our Health and Help America Heartland. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/healthy-farmland-diet-appendices.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. The Healthy Farmland Diet: How Growing Less Corn Would Improve Our Health and Help America Heartland. n.d. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/healthy-farmland-diet-appendices.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=The Healthy Farmland Diet: How Growing Less Corn Would Improve Our Health and Help America Heartland |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/healthy-farmland-diet-appendices.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientistsndhealthy, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{The Healthy Farmland Diet: How Growing Less Corn Would Improve Our Health and Help America Heartland}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/healthy-farmland-diet-appendices.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }