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The paper uses the CASE II model to analyze how different EU ETS allocation modes and emissions targets (-21% to -34%) affect carbon leakage and production in the cement, aluminium, steel, and electricity sectors. It finds that while output-based allocation (OBA) and border adjustments (BA) can mitigate leakage, they create different trade-offs regarding production levels and electricity prices. The author concludes that carbon leakage must be readdressed if the EU raises its ambition, as the impacts vary significantly by sector and allocation method.

The document examines the political motivations behind hosting mega sport events (MSEs), contrasting the experiences of Germany (2006) and South Africa (2010). It argues that while MSEs are often promoted for economic gain, these expectations are rarely met. Instead, states use them for 'soft power'—using attraction and positive attributes to achieve policy goals. Germany focused on rebranding itself as a modern, welcoming nation to move past its Nazi history. South Africa used the event to project regional leadership, championing an 'Africa first' narrative to combat 'afro-pessimism' and position itself as the continent's representative. The author concludes that developing nations may rely more heavily on MSEs for soft power due to a lack of traditional international influence, though they face higher resource strains and opportunity costs.

The paper analyzes Kenya's experience with the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), noting that while the initial 2006 review was high-quality and well-supported, the subsequent implementation of the National Programme of Action (NPoA) failed due to a lack of political will, poor coordination with national development plans like 'Vision 2030', and competing governance initiatives. The author highlights the impact of the 2007 post-election violence and the role of the new constitution as a potential catalyst for revitalizing the APRM. Recommendations include strengthening the continental APR Secretariat, institutionalizing civil society monitoring, and learning from the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) model of multi-stakeholder trust and capacity building.

The report evaluates the EU ETS, concluding that emissions trading is an effective tool for reducing CO2 emissions with modest macroeconomic impacts. It highlights the risks of free allowance allocation, such as windfall profits and reduced economic efficiency, and recommends a transition toward auctioning. The document also identifies that international competitiveness risks are concentrated in a few carbon-intensive sectors and suggests tailored solutions like benchmarked free allocation or multilateral border adjustments to prevent carbon leakage.

The report assesses how a 30% GHG reduction target by 2020 would affect EU energy security compared to a 20% target and a business-as-usual scenario. It finds that more ambitious targets generally improve primary energy security by reducing overall energy demand and fossil fuel imports, particularly oil. However, it notes that the transition may increase risks for specific countries like Poland due to a shift from coal to imported gas, and could negatively impact electricity grid security due to the intermittency of renewables and the need for significant new capacity investments.

The document examines Angola's economic performance between 2002 and 2008, highlighting the risks associated with high oil intensity and the potential for 'peak oil' between 2010 and 2025. It argues that while the oil sector has a positive direct impact on the non-oil sector, a poor business climate and weak public spending effectiveness hinder broader development. The author recommends prioritizing domestic capital investment over the creation of a national wealth fund and emphasizes the need for transparent public finance management and democratic stability to ensure long-term economic sustainability.

China's energy intensity decreased by 15.6% between 2005 and 2009, putting it on track to meet its 11th Five-Year Plan target of a 20% reduction. The report finds that while top-down administrative measures and plant closures were effective, much of the 'low-hanging fruit' has been picked, suggesting that future reductions in the 12th Five-Year Plan will be more costly. Sectoral analysis shows significant gains in power and manufacturing efficiency, while the building and transport sectors faced challenges from rapid urbanization and a shift toward more energy-intensive transport modes. Agriculture and forestry provided significant carbon sinks through afforestation, though fertilizer use remains a primary source of emissions.

The document evaluates the initial year of the G-20's initiative to phase out inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies, noting that while activity has increased and supporting groups like the Friends of Fossil-Fuel Subsidy Reform have been established, the process remains challenging. It emphasizes that the G-20 must still fulfill its medium-term commitments, specifically regarding the monitoring of subsidy phase-outs.

The report evaluates the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and its impact on the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and developing nations. It finds that a significant portion of CDM projects lack additionality, leading to global emission increases and reduced domestic abatement in Europe. The authors argue that the CDM has failed to facilitate meaningful technology transfer or support a systemic shift to low-carbon development in host countries, often subsidizing carbon-intensive activities instead. To address these failures, the report proposes supply-side restrictions on project eligibility and demand-side reforms in the EU, such as auctioning the right to use CERs, to ensure the mechanism serves as a transitional tool rather than a permanent subsidy regime.

The report finds that the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has largely failed to meet its core objectives of additionality, sustainable development, and low-carbon technology transfer. In the EU, the use of CDM credits has significantly reduced domestic abatement efforts, potentially increasing global emissions by 30 to 106 million tonnes of CO2eq between 2008 and 2009 due to non-additional projects. The authors argue that the CDM often subsidizes carbon-intensive activities and creates perverse incentives that discourage developing countries from implementing national mitigation policies. To realign results with climate goals, the report proposes limiting project eligibility to those providing long-term sustainable benefits, differentiating crediting periods by project type, and introducing tradable or institutionally procured usage rights within the EU ETS.

The document analyzes China's 'going-out' strategy, noting that while overseas FDI grew rapidly, it remained concentrated in energy and mining sectors and faced significant losses. It identifies four primary risk categories: breach of contract, exchange losses, premium-value transactions, and integration failures. The author argues that systemic risks stem from excessive government intervention and a lack of international management capacity, while external risks are primarily driven by the incompatibility of legal, political, and social institutions between China and host countries.

The document analyzes the transition from project-based mechanisms like the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to sectoral-scale mechanisms. It evaluates three governance models for a Sectoral Crediting Mechanism (SCM): centralized (UN-led), hybrid (bilateral with UN minimum standards), and decentralized (independent of the UN). The authors argue that while decentralized models offer flexibility, they risk undermining environmental integrity and market credibility. The paper proposes a centralized SCM project cycle that improves upon the CDM by introducing more interactive baseline reviews, professionalizing the regulatory body, and utilizing biennial update reports for better verification.

The 2007–08 international food crisis had a modest impact on Tanzania compared to other poor countries, with an estimated 0.5–1% of the population driven into poverty, primarily in urban areas. While short-term government interventions like export bans and tariff reductions showed limited evidence of effectiveness, long-term economic reforms since the early 2000s helped the country maintain agricultural exports. The study highlights a persistent challenge in stabilizing agricultural output growth and suggests that greater integration with global markets could serve as insurance against domestic production shocks.

The document finds that Estonian transport trends are unsustainable, characterized by rapid increases in private car use and road freight, leading to transport fuel use per unit of GDP that is twice the EU average. It argues that current policies are insufficient to meet EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emission limits for 2020 and proposes a combined approach of technical vehicle efficiency improvements and modal shifts to achieve sustainability.

This fact sheet describes a project aimed at improving energy access in least developed countries by evaluating low-GHG alternatives to traditional biomass. The project focuses on three emission sources: non-renewable biomass, lifecycle fuel emissions, and products of incomplete combustion, such as black carbon. Using peri-urban case studies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Delhi, India, the project examines the socio-economic and cultural factors influencing the adoption of efficient cookstoves and cleaner fuels like LPG, ethanol, and electricity. In Delhi, the study compares advanced stove options against baseline data, while in Dar es Salaam, it focuses on charcoal supply chain constraints and efficiency.

The document examines how the 2008 financial crisis caused a collapse in global trade and a freeze in trade finance due to a reassessment of counterparty risk. It analyzes the G20's regulatory response, primarily the transition from Basel II to Basel III, which aims to increase capital adequacy and liquidity to reduce systemic risk. The author highlights a tension between regulators, who argue these reforms ensure stability, and banks, who contend that stricter capital requirements will increase lending costs and constrain long-term infrastructure and trade finance, particularly in emerging markets. In South Africa, the impact is noted through increased credit impairments for corporate customers and a lack of regulatory dispensation for trade finance compared to the UK.

The paper finds that CDM nitric acid projects have successfully fostered abatement in a sector that previously lacked such practices, with limited risk of carbon leakage and no evidence of systematic baseline manipulation. However, it highlights significant variability in baseline emissions between plants and monitoring periods, and notes substantial delays in credit issuance, particularly for projects using secondary abatement (AM0034). The authors recommend transitioning to a common benchmarking approach for baseline emissions to simplify methodologies, reduce transaction costs, and ensure environmental integrity.

The analysis finds that while the CDM enabled previously unachieved N2O emission abatement levels in adipic acid production, it also led to significant carbon leakage during the 2008 and 2009 economic downturn. It is estimated that approximately 20% of the Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) issued for these plants during that period, totaling about 13.5 MtCO2e, did not represent real emission reductions.

The research finds that while the CDM successfully drove N2O abatement efficiencies to 98-100%, it created significant competitive advantages for registered plants. This led to carbon leakage during 2008 and 2009, where production shifted from plants in industrialized countries or those with existing abatement to CDM plants. The authors estimate that approximately 13.5 MtCO2e of issued CERs for 2008 and 2009 did not represent real emission reductions. To mitigate this, the paper recommends implementing ambitious baseline emission benchmarks in the CDM methodology.

The report analyzes Indonesia's long-term struggle to reform fossil-fuel subsidies, focusing on the period from 1998 to 2010. It examines the rationale for reform—primarily relieving budgetary pressure and improving social welfare efficiency—and evaluates two specific strategies: the Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT) unconditional cash transfer program and the Kerosene to LPG Conversion Program. The document concludes that while targeted cash transfers and fuel-switching programs can effectively reduce political opposition and budgetary burdens, they require rigorous preparation and monitoring to avoid social conflict and implementation failures.