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Charting Africa's Chinese Future
This research paper examines the evolving economic and political relationship between China and Africa following a strategic partnership summit. It analyzes the tensions between China's rapid investment and development goals and the emerging concerns in Africa regarding colonial-style economic ties, labor standards, and the risk of deindustrialization.
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Document type: Research paper
LES TENDANCES POLITIQUES EN RD CONGO
This briefing by Hubert Kabungulu Ngoy-K. analyzes the evolution of political trends and power dynamics in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 1990 to 2005. The author argues that Congolese political parties generally lack genuine ideology or social projects, instead operating through ephemeral alliances, 'cartellization,' and interests based on ethnicity, region, or personal gain.
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Document type: Briefing
ZIMBABWE’S ZEZURU SUM GAME
This research paper analyzes the political crisis in Zimbabwe circa 2005, arguing that the ruling ZANU-PF elite is trapped in an 'insecurity dilemma' driven by the fear of international prosecution for human rights abuses. The author explores how this fear, combined with ethno-linguistic factionalism—specifically the dominance of the Zezuru faction—impedes a peaceful transition to democracy and shapes the party's resistance to power-sharing with the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
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Document type: Research paper
Continuing Instability in the Kivus: Testing the DRC transition to the limit
This research paper examines the political and military instability in the North and South Kivu provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) following the May and June 2004 unrest in Bukavu. It analyzes the military campaign led by General Laurent Nkunda, the role of the Transition Government (TG), the influence of Rwanda, and the manipulation of ethnic tensions involving the Tutsi and Banyamulenge communities.
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Document type: Research paper
The South Sudan Defence Force (SSDF): A challenge to the Sudan Peace Process
This report analyses the South Sudan Defence Force (SSDF), a conglomerate of government-supported militias, and argues that its exclusion from the IGAD-sponsored peace process between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) threatens the stability of southern Sudan.
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Document type: Report
Malawi: The Slippery Slide Towards Autocracy?
This situation report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the political climate in Malawi as of November 2003, focusing on President Bakili Muluzi's efforts to amend the constitution to secure a third term in office. The document details the tension between the executive and the judiciary, the fragmentation of political parties based on leadership personalities rather than ideology, and the risk of Malawi regressing toward the autocratic patterns seen during the regime of Hastings Kamuzu Banda.
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Document type: Report
Coup d’état in São Tomé e Príncipe
This research paper analyzes the military coup in São Tomé e Príncipe on 16 July 2003, examining the interplay between domestic political instability, the grievances of the armed forces, and the influence of former mercenaries from the Buffalo Battalion, while assessing the role of potential oil wealth in the event and its resolution.
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Document type: Research paper
SITUATION REPORT: ZIMBABWE: SMOKE SCREENS AND MIRRORS
This February 2003 briefing by the Institute for Security Studies examines the internal power struggles within Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF party and the reported attempts to negotiate an exit strategy for President Robert Mugabe amidst a severe economic collapse.
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Document type: Briefing
World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg) – An assessment for IISD
This briefing paper assesses the outcomes of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), held from 26 August to 4 September 2002 in Johannesburg. It details the resulting political declarations, implementation plans, and partnership commitments, while analyzing the political tensions between developed and developing nations regarding renewable energy targets, corporate accountability, and the role of the WTO in environmental governance.
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Document type: Briefing
Relations among Liberation Movements: SA and Zimbabwe
This research paper by Wilfred Mhanda examines the diplomatic and political relationship between South Africa and Zimbabwe, specifically critiquing the South African government's support for Robert Mugabe's regime. Mhanda argues that South Africa's 'quiet diplomacy' contradicts its stated foreign policy values of democracy and human rights, suggesting that solidarity between former liberation movements has taken precedence over the actual empowerment of the Zimbabwean people.
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Document type: Research paper
chap-11-b27d953932919f1b.pdf
This document is the concluding chapter of a report analyzing the counter-insurgency strategies employed by the Rhodesian Security Forces during the war for Zimbabwe. It argues that the white administration failed because it treated the conflict as a military problem rather than a political one, neglecting the rural black population and failing to establish a coherent national strategy until the very end of the conflict.
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Document type: Report
ecowas-report-8-eng-7e157bbeeb49b74c.pdf
This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the risk of a military coup in Guinea-Bissau ahead of the April 13, 2014, general elections. It examines the causes of the April 12, 2012, coup and evaluates whether changes in the political landscape, security missions, and electoral reforms are sufficient to prevent a recurrence of instability.
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Document type: Report
Microsoft Word - 031105 ASAP S
This situation report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the context and significance of the local government elections in Mozambique scheduled for 19 November 2003. It examines the country's political transition from a one-party socialist state to a multi-party democracy, the tensions between the ruling Frelimo party and the opposition Renamo, and the socio-economic factors—including poverty and the HIV/AIDS epidemic—that influence electoral dynamics.
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Document type: Report
Civil-military relations in Zimbabwe: Is there a threat?
This research paper by Martin R Rupiya analyzes the deterioration of civil-military relations in Zimbabwe between 1980 and 2002. The author argues that the country's security institutions are rooted in a 'liberation movement model' characterized by a fusion of political and military power, which has led to the ruling ZANU (PF) party using coercive military tools to maintain dominance over political opponents and manage state failures.
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Document type: Research paper
sitrep2010_14octburundi-b02cee30981ebcd5.pdf
This situation report by the Institute for Security Studies provides an overview of Burundi's 2010 electoral process, including communal, presidential, and legislative polls. It details the transition from the 2005 post-transitional polls to the 2010 cycle, the subsequent boycott by opposition parties led by the Alliance des Démocrates pour le Changement au Burundi (ADC), and the resulting dominance of the CNDD-FDD in the new administration.
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Document type: Report
-1
This situation report by the Institute for Security Studies evaluates Zimbabwe's constitutional reform process as of August 2012, focusing on the efforts of the Constitution Select Committee of Parliament (Copac) to draft a new constitution under the Global Political Agreement (GPA). It examines the role of SADC, the challenges of conducting a credible referendum and elections, and the influence of the security sector and international sanctions.
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Document type: Report
After Capture: Notes on the current situation and some thoughts for democratising the future
This research paper by Ivor Chipkin of the Public Affairs Research Institute (PARI) analyzes the shift toward 'tyranny' under the presidency of Jacob Zuma in South Africa. The author argues that the Zuma administration's move toward lawlessness and 'state capture' was driven by a political project called 'Radical Economic Transformation,' which viewed the South African Constitution as an obstacle to economic change. The paper details efforts to control the media, weaken state institutions, and the subsequent emergence of a rejuvenated civil-society coalition that used litigation and political mobilization to defend constitutional democracy.
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Document type: Research paper
Peluso Bellagio Paper.doc
This research paper by Nancy Peluso explores the complex relationship between the decentralization of resource management and violence in Indonesia. Using the forest and land sectors as primary examples, Peluso argues that decentralization often shifts the locus of power to local elites who may use violence to secure resource control, while the legacy of the repressive Suharto regime has normalized violent conflict and weakened the state's capacity to enforce law and order.
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Document type: Research paper