ecowas-report-8-eng-7e157bbeeb49b74c.pdf

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the risk of a military coup in Guinea-Bissau ahead of the April 13, 2014, general elections. It examines the causes of the April 12, 2012, coup and evaluates whether changes in the political landscape, security missions, and electoral reforms are sufficient to prevent a recurrence of instability.

• The report identifies several factors that changed between 2012 and 2014, including the absence of controversial figures like Carlos Gomes Júnior and the late Kumba Yalá from the presidential race, and the replacement of the Angolan MISSANG mission with the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau (ECOMIB).
• Despite changes in personnel and missions, the report concludes that the root causes of instability remain, and a new coup is still possible because the political, security, and institutional changes have not fundamentally altered the situation.
• The military elite remains an unpredictable actor, influenced by international pressures such as UN travel bans on 11 officials and US justice indictments against General António Injai for narco-terrorism conspiracy charges.
• To improve electoral credibility, Guinea-Bissau implemented an 'enhanced manual and digital' voter registration system in August 2013 and restructured the National Electoral Commission (NEC) to be composed of magistrates proposed by the Higher Judicial Council.
• Post-election challenges include the need for a 'new social contract' through national dialogue and the urgent requirement to address extreme poverty, with 80% of the population living below the poverty line according to the UN Human Development Index.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ecowas-report-8-eng-7e157bbeeb49b74c.pdf. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ECOWAS-Report-8-ENG.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ecowas-report-8-eng-7e157bbeeb49b74c.pdf. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ECOWAS-Report-8-ENG.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ecowas-report-8-eng-7e157bbeeb49b74c.pdf |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ECOWAS-Report-8-ENG.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndecowasreport8eng7e157bbeeb49b74cpdf, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ecowas-report-8-eng-7e157bbeeb49b74c.pdf}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ECOWAS-Report-8-ENG.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }