Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

The report investigates the 2022 Pakistan floods, focusing on two event definitions: 60-day maximum rainfall in the Indus basin and 5-day maximum rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan. While observational trends suggest that a 1.2°C warmer climate increased 5-day rainfall intensity by about 75% and 60-day rainfall by 50%, the authors refrain from a precise quantitative attribution due to high rainfall variability and climate model limitations. However, models project that a further 0.8°C of warming (reaching 2°C above pre-industrial levels) will significantly increase the intensity and probability of short-duration extreme rainfall. The study also highlights that the disaster's scale was exacerbated by outdated river management, high poverty, and gender-based vulnerabilities.

• The 2022 flooding was caused by extreme monsoon rainfall, with particularly heavy spikes in August affecting the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan.
• The return time for both the 60-day maximum rainfall in the Indus basin and the 5-day maximum rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan is approximately 1 in 100 years in the current climate.
• Observational data indicates that 5-day maximum rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan is approximately 75% more intense, and 60-day rainfall across the Indus basin is about 50% more intense, than they would have been without 1.2°C of warming.
• A precise quantification of the role of human-induced climate change is deemed infeasible because state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate the specific rainfall characteristics of the region and show smaller changes than observed trends.
• Projections for a climate 2°C warmer than pre-industrial levels suggest a statistically significant increase in the intensity (by 13%) and probability (by 40%) of 5-day extreme rainfall events.
• The 2022 event was influenced by a combination of a La Niña event and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which provided additional moisture to monsoon depressions.
• The disaster's impact was intensified by non-climatic factors, including the proximity of settlements to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, an outdated river management system, and high poverty rates.
• Women in Pakistan face higher vulnerability during floods due to limited mobility, traditional caretaking roles, and gender segregation norms such as purdah.
• The 2022 floods caused extensive damage, including the destruction of 1.7 million homes, 6,700 km of road, 269 bridges, and 1,460 health facilities, with estimated damages exceeding US$30 billion.

APA

Otto, F. E. L., Zachariah, M., Saeed, F., Siddiqi, A., Shahzad, K., Mushtaq, H., T, A., AchutaRao, K., T, C. S., Barnes, C., Philip, S., Kew, S., Vautard, R., Koren, G., Pinto, I., Wolski, P., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., ... Clarke, B. (n.d.). Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan. World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/Pakistan-floods-scientific-report.pdf

Chicago

Otto, Friederike E. L., Mariam Zachariah, Fahad Saeed, Ayesha Siddiqi, Kamil Shahzad, Haris Mushtaq, Arulalan T, et al. Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan. World Weather Attribution, n.d. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/Pakistan-floods-scientific-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{ottondclimate, author = {Otto, Friederike E. L. and Zachariah, Mariam and Saeed, Fahad and Siddiqi, Ayesha and Shahzad, Kamil and Mushtaq, Haris and T, Arulalan and AchutaRao, Krishna and T, Chaithra S and Barnes, Clair and Philip, Sjoukje and Kew, Sarah and Vautard, Robert and Koren, Gerbrand and Pinto, Izidine and Wolski, Piotr and Vahlberg, Maja and Singh, Roop and Arrighi, Julie and van Aalst, Maarten and Thalheimer, Lisa and Raju, Emmanuel and Li, Sihan and Yang, Wenchang and Harrington, Luke J. and Clarke, Ben}, title = {{Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/Pakistan-floods-scientific-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }