Nuestro Clima Cambiante

The report analyzes how varying levels of greenhouse gas emissions will lead to temperature increases in California, ranging from 3 to 10.5 °F by the end of the century. It details severe risks including a 70-90% reduction in Sierra Nevada snowpack, increased frequency of extreme heat and wildfires, and rising sea levels that threaten coastal infrastructure. The document emphasizes that while some changes are inevitable, the most severe outcomes can be avoided through aggressive emission reductions, aligned with California's executive goals to return to 1990 emission levels by 2020.

• California is projected to experience significant temperature increases by the end of the century, depending on emission levels: a low range of 3 to 5.5 °F, a medium range of 5.5 to 8 °F, and a high range of 8 to 10.5 °F.
• Uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions could lead to a 70% to 90% decrease in the Sierra Nevada snowpack, which would severely impact water supplies, hydroelectric power, and winter recreation.
• Public health risks are expected to rise due to worsening air quality and extreme heat; for example, Los Angeles and the San Joaquin Valley could see 75 to 85 additional days with conditions favorable for ozone formation under a medium warming scenario.
• The agricultural sector faces threats from higher temperatures and unreliable water supplies, with potential impacts including a 20% reduction in milk production under high warming and the northward expansion of the pink bollworm pest.
• Forest ecosystems are at risk from increased wildfires and shifting vegetation; a medium warming scenario could increase the risk of vast wildfires by 55%, while alpine and sub-alpine plants could decline by 60% to 80%.
• Sea levels along the California coast are projected to rise between 22 and 35 inches by the end of the century under high emission scenarios, increasing coastal erosion and the frequency of flooding in areas like the San Francisco Bay Delta.
• California's Executive Order S-3-05 sets targets to reduce heat-trapping emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 to mitigate these risks.

APA

Luers, A. L., Cayan, D. R., Franco, G., Hanemann, M., & Croes, B. (2006). Nuestro Clima Cambiante. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/our-changing-climate-spanish.pdf

Chicago

Luers, Amy Lynd, Daniel R. Cayan, Guido Franco, Michael Hanemann, and Bart Croes. Nuestro Clima Cambiante. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2006. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/our-changing-climate-spanish.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Luers |first1=Amy Lynd |last2=Cayan |first2=Daniel R. |last3=Franco |first3=Guido |last4=Hanemann |first4=Michael |last5=Croes |first5=Bart |title=Nuestro Clima Cambiante |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=July 2006 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/our-changing-climate-spanish.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{luers2006nuestro, author = {Luers, Amy Lynd and Cayan, Daniel R. and Franco, Guido and Hanemann, Michael and Croes, Bart}, title = {{Nuestro Clima Cambiante}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2006}, month = jul, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/our-changing-climate-spanish.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }