Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest

The report projects that Minnesota will face significantly hotter summers, increased flooding, and agricultural threats if current emissions trends continue. Under a high-emissions scenario, the state could see a 12°F increase in average summer temperatures by the end of the century, with Minneapolis-St. Paul experiencing nearly 70 days over 90°F per summer. These changes are expected to increase heat-related mortality, worsen air quality through higher ozone and particulate levels, and disrupt farming via heat stress and pest expansion. The document advocates for a transition to renewable energy, increased energy efficiency, and a federal cap-and-trade program to mitigate these risks.

• Under a higher-emissions scenario, average summer temperatures in Minnesota are projected to increase by more than 3°F over the next few decades and by 12°F toward the end of the century.
• Extreme heat in the Minneapolis-St. Paul urban area is projected to increase dramatically; by the end of the century under a higher-emissions scenario, the city could see nearly 70 days per summer over 90°F and 28 days over 100°F.
• Climate change is expected to degrade air quality in Minnesota as higher temperatures increase ground-level ozone and demand for electricity leads to more particulate pollution from coal-fired power plants.
• Minnesota faces an increased risk of flooding due to a projected 66 percent increase in heavy rainfalls (over two inches in one day) in Minneapolis-St. Paul over the next few decades, with winter and spring precipitation potentially increasing by 30 to 50 percent toward the end of the century.
• Water levels in the Great Lakes, particularly Lake Huron and Lake Michigan, are projected to fall by one to two feet by the end of the century under a higher-emissions scenario, threatening the economy of the port of Duluth-Superior.
• Agricultural productivity in Minnesota is threatened by heat stress, where corn and wheat can fail at 95°F, and the northward expansion of pests such as the European corn borer and corn rootworm due to warmer winters.
• Transportation and electricity generation are the primary sources of emissions in Minnesota, with 62 percent of the state's electricity coming from coal-fired power plants.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2009). Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-change-minnesota.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest. 2009. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-change-minnesota.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest |date=July 2009 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-change-minnesota.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2009confronting, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2009}, month = jul, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-change-minnesota.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }