Climate Risk Profile: Belize

This report provides a comprehensive climate risk profile for Belize, focusing on the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and communities within and around specific marine and terrestrial protected areas. It details observed climatic changes, future projections, and the resulting vulnerabilities of local livelihoods, while recommending nature-based solutions (NbS) and gender-responsive adaptation strategies to enhance resilience.

• Belize has seen a 0.45°C rise in mean annual air temperatures since 1960, resulting in 67 more hot days and 21 fewer cold days per year between 1960 and 2003. Sea surface temperatures increased by approximately 1.25°C from 2004 to 2024, and mean annual rainfall has declined by about 37.2 mm every 10 years since 1960.
• Future projections for the next century include a 1°C–2°C rise in mean surface air temperatures and a 50% decline in mean annual rainfall. Sea levels are projected to rise by more than 9 cm by 2050, with high-emissions scenarios suggesting a rise up to 104 cm by 2100. Additionally, a mean pH decrease of 0.02 in coastal waters is expected within 50 years due to ocean acidification.
• Climate change is severely impacting key economic sectors: agriculture faces reduced crop yields and altered planting seasons due to drought and flooding; fisheries are seeing declining fish stocks and damaged equipment from storms; and tourism is affected by coral bleaching, sargassum influxes, and beach loss.
• Vulnerability varies by community; among marine sites, Placencia and Sarteneja are the most vulnerable, with Placencia ranking highest in exposure and sensitivity. Among terrestrial sites, Hattieville and Mahogany Heights are the most vulnerable due to high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity.
• Climate change exacerbates social inequalities and gender roles. Women often lack the financial safety nets of men and are more affected in male-dominated sectors like fishing. However, a shift is occurring where women are increasingly earning supplementary income to reduce household vulnerability, leading to more joint decision-making.
• The report recommends specific nature-based solutions (NbS) for adaptation, including coral reef and mangrove restoration for marine communities (such as in Sarteneja and Hopkins), and reforestation, community-based fire control, and climate-smart agroecological practices for communities in the Maya Forest Corridor.

APA

Jang, N., Tablada, S., Vasquez, M., Surya, G., Rathbone, V., Jones, K., & Elsen, P. (2025). Climate Risk Profile: Belize. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2025-04/belize-climate-risk-profile.pdf

Chicago

Jang, Nicole, Sherlene Tablada, Marydelene Vasquez, Gautam Surya, Vanessa Rathbone, Kendall Jones, and Paul Elsen. Climate Risk Profile: Belize. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2025. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2025-04/belize-climate-risk-profile.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{jang2025climate, author = {Jang, Nicole and Tablada, Sherlene and Vasquez, Marydelene and Surya, Gautam and Rathbone, Vanessa and Jones, Kendall and Elsen, Paul}, title = {{Climate Risk Profile: Belize}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2025-04/belize-climate-risk-profile.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }