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The document examines the intersection of the Niger Delta insurgency and Nigeria's 2007 general elections. It argues that the region's instability is driven by ecological damage, poverty, and a lack of political autonomy for ethnic minorities, exacerbated by the failure of the 13 percent oil revenue award and the activities of oil companies. The author warns that if the elections are perceived as fraudulent, armed groups like the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) may use the chaos to advance their goals through violence, potentially disrupting global oil markets. The briefing outlines several scenarios for the election aftermath, ranging from chaotic inconclusive polls to potential impeachment or military intervention, and recommends a sovereign national conference to renegotiate the federation's political and economic foundations.

The document examines the SPLA's efforts to disarm civilian populations in South Sudan following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). It focuses on the violent disarmament of the Lou Nuer in Jonglei State, which resulted in significant casualties and looting, and contrasts this with a more peaceful process in Akobo. The author argues that the SPLA's approach was dominated by a militarist orientation and a desire to secure the south before confronting the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) in oil-producing borderlands. The paper also criticizes the United Nations for its failure to proactively manage internal disarmament and its tendency to ignore human rights abuses in the region.

The document examines Lesotho's transition toward democratic stability, focusing on the 2007 general elections and the long-term effects of a mixed-member proportional representative electoral system introduced after the 1998 SADC military intervention. While the Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) secured a resounding victory in 2007, the report argues that the shift from a 'first past the post' system to one including proportional representation has been critical in managing political conflict and ensuring minority representation, despite ongoing concerns regarding political culture and potential instability.

The report analyzes the proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) in the DRC, CAR, and Chad, linking arms availability to historical instability, ethnic conflict, and poor governance. It assesses various disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) efforts, noting that while some institutional frameworks exist, they are often undermined by a lack of resources, political mistrust, and the persistence of non-state armed groups. The author argues that sustainable peace requires integrating disarmament with socio-economic development and regional cooperation.

The report assesses the transition of former UNITA soldiers into civilian life following the 2002 Luena Memorandum of Understanding. Through surveys of 603 ex-combatants, it finds that while most feel welcomed by their communities and intend to participate in democratic elections, significant challenges remain. Economic vulnerability is high, with a heavy reliance on humanitarian food aid and a lack of formal employment due to low education levels. The study highlights a persistent 'demobilised' identity among many, particularly those of higher military rank or those without land access. It argues that reintegration is deeply tied to land ownership, family networks, and the influence of traditional authorities (Sobas), while noting that the vulnerability of ex-combatants is largely similar to that of other displaced populations in Angola.

The briefing examines the risks associated with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's development of counterterrorism legislation, warning that such laws may serve as a replacement for the state of emergency in place since 1981 to suppress political opposition, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood. It argues that legislation alone is not an effective shield against terrorism and advocates for a holistic approach that includes accountability, adherence to the constitution, and the mitigation of political marginalization to avoid providing legitimacy to terrorists.

The document examines the rapid expansion of private security in Africa, distinguishing between private security companies (PSCs) and private military companies (PMCs). It identifies drivers of this growth, including the end of the Cold War, globalization, and state fragility, while highlighting the risks to human rights and state sovereignty. The author argues that the current lack of regulation makes the sector a potential threat, particularly in fragile states, and calls for comprehensive research to inform new regulatory frameworks.

The document examines the application of global anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) regimes in Southern Africa. It argues that 'one-size-fits-all' international standards, designed for developed formal banking systems, are often inappropriate for the region's cash-based economies and can hinder financial inclusion. The author finds that evidence of actual terrorist financing in Southern Africa is scanty, suggesting that development should take priority over the costly implementation of these complex measures.

The seminar, titled "Understanding Terrorism in Africa: Building Bridges and Overcoming Gaps," was held on 19-20 May 2007 at the University of Cairo. It aimed to address discrepancies in the definitions, roots, and strategies for combating terrorism, while analyzing the impacts of the "War on Terrorism" across different African regions. The event focused on creating an "African Voice" in global terrorism debates and strengthening the African Research Network on Terrorism and Counter Terrorism (ARNTACT). Future follow-up seminars were planned for Abuja, Nigeria, to focus on domestic terrorism and Nairobi, Kenya, to assess counter-terrorism strategies.

The report examines how corruption, poor oversight, and political interference hinder HIV/AIDS services in South Africa despite significant increases in funding. It identifies systemic vulnerabilities in budget tracking, donor fund management, and pharmaceutical procurement, while documenting specific cases of fund misappropriation and the promotion of unproven alternative remedies. The study argues that a combination of weak institutional structures and a lack of political will creates a 'lethal cocktail' that disproportionately affects the poor and marginalised.

The 2006 elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo ended a three-year transition, resulting in the inauguration of Joseph Kabila. While the process was generally free and fair, it revealed a deep regional divide and was marred by violent clashes in Kinshasa and renewed conflict in North Kivu led by General Nkunda. The document highlights critical needs for military reform and improved state governance to prevent social unrest and ensure long-term stability.

The document analyzes terrorism in Egypt through three distinct cycles, tracing the evolution from the 1928 founding of the Muslim Brotherhood to the 2006 Dahab bombings. It argues that Egypt's closed political system, socio-economic marginalization—particularly of the Bedouin community in Sinai—and heavy-handed security responses have fueled extremism. The paper also details the significant role of Egyptian nationals, such as Ayman al-Zawahiri, in the formation and leadership of transnational networks like al-Qa'eda, suggesting that domestic repression effectively exported extremism globally.

The document examines the systemic risks posed by unregulated private funding of political parties in South Africa, specifically focusing on how the ruling ANC and the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) manage their finances. It argues that the absence of disclosure laws allows for 'influence-peddling' and 'crony capitalism,' particularly through the distortion of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policies. The paper highlights several scandals, including 'Oilgate' and the 'arms deal,' and provides a detailed case study of Chancellor House as a corporate front used by the ANC to accumulate wealth in the minerals and energy sectors, often in partnership with foreign interests like Russia's Renova group.

The report analyzes the transition of the Democratic Republic of Congo toward a new political dispensation, focusing on the run-off election between Joseph Kabila and Jean-Pierre Bemba. It highlights the fragility of the security situation in Kinshasa and the eastern provinces, the role of international forces like MONUC and EUFOR, and the risks posed by slow military reform and political intolerance. The document details the first-round results, the formation of political alliances, and provides four potential scenarios for the election outcome, emphasizing the need for the demobilization of candidate-specific security forces to prevent violence.

The Democratic Republic of Congo's first democratic elections in 40 years were largely peaceful, though logistical challenges and security threats persist in eastern provinces. While voter turnout was high, the slow counting process by the Commission Electorale Indépendante (CEI) created political tension. The document outlines two primary scenarios: a first-round victory for a candidate with over 50% of the vote, or a second-round runoff likely between Joseph Kabila and Jean-Pierre Bemba, which could lead to significant political alliances and potential instability.

The briefing reports on rising tensions in Kinshasa as early election results show incumbent President Joseph Kabila leading over Jean-Pierre Bemba. It warns that a Kabila victory could trigger a return to war by Bemba or Azarias Ruberwa, while a Bemba victory might incite secessionist movements in eastern DRC. The text notes that while only 9.4% of votes had been counted by 14 August 2006, the race appears to be between Kabila and Bemba, with a second round of voting possible in October 2006 if no candidate exceeds 50% of the vote.

The document examines the state of Sudan's transition following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). While noting security gains such as the establishment of UNMIS and the Joint Defence Board, it highlights severe risks to the peace process. Central to these is the unresolved demarcation of the Abyei boundary, which is viewed as a potential 'flashpoint' for renewed war due to oil interests and tribal tensions between the Ngok Dinka and Misseriya. The report also notes that the death of Dr. John Garang weakened the 'New Sudan' vision of pluralism, leaving the SPLM more inclined toward secession and the NCP increasingly dominated by security and petroleum elites. Further instability is noted in Darfur and the Eastern Beja region, where marginalized groups feel excluded by the NCP-SPLM power-sharing arrangement.

The briefing examines the gap between President Mubarak's stated goals for political reform in Egypt and the actual implementation of those goals. While the 2005 constitutional amendment to Article 76 allowed for multi-candidate presidential elections for the first time, subsequent events—including the continued ban on the Muslim Brotherhood, the prosecution of judges, and the passage of a restrictive Press Law—suggest a reversal of reform efforts. The author concludes that the government's failure to protect basic human rights and civil liberties risks increasing public frustration and the possibility of revolution.

The National Anti-Corruption Forum (NACF) met on 29 May 2006 to discuss a civil society report on 'Apartheid Grand Corruption'. The NACF welcomed the report as a starting point for education and awareness, noting that the secretive nature of the apartheid state created opportunities for corruption. While the NACF will establish a three-person sub-committee to move the report forward, it clarified that its role is not to handle prosecutions, though it will refer necessary matters to law enforcement agencies.

The document details a UNHCR-led voluntary repatriation plan starting in August 2006, aiming to return approximately 4,000 of the 13,000 Angolan refugees in South Africa over 18 months. While the Angolan government has shifted budget priorities from defence to education and health since 1999, the country still faces over 50% unemployment and 70% poverty, leading many refugees to prefer staying in South Africa where they have integrated and have better access to services.