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Despite a slowdown in emission growth in Q2 2021, China's power and steel sectors continued to announce significant new coal-based capacity in the first half of the year. The report highlights a contradiction between economic growth driven by construction and decarbonization goals, noting that zero-emission power only met 30% of electricity demand growth between H1 2019 and H1 2021. While government measures to control fiscal overspending and industrial output led to a slowdown in CO2 emission growth in the second quarter, the continued announcement of coal-based projects risks creating stranded assets and hindering the transition to low-carbon technologies.

The report finds that 2,277 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new coal mining capacity is under development globally, with 614 mtpa already under construction. This expansion is heavily concentrated in China, Australia, India, and Russia, which together represent 77% of global development. The authors argue that this trajectory is incompatible with the Paris Agreement, as coal production would need to decline 11% annually through 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all proposed capacity is realized, 2030 production would be over four times the 1.5°C-compliant pathway. The report also highlights a potential $91 billion USD in stranded assets and significant greenhouse gas emissions, estimated between 5,000 and 5,800 Mt of CO2-equivalent annually from these projects.

The report highlights a significant downturn in the LNG sector, characterized by widespread final investment decision (FID) delays, cost overruns, and a shift in perception of LNG from a climate solution to a climate problem. While import capacity continues to expand rapidly, particularly in Asia and Brazil, export projects—especially in North America—are struggling with financing and competition from lower-cost producers in Qatar and Russia.

The global steel sector, responsible for 11% of CO2 emissions, remains heavily reliant on carbon-intensive blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) pathways. While over 75% of global capacity is now covered by net-zero pledges, the report warns of significant stranded asset risks—estimated between 47 and 70 billion USD—due to the continued construction of BF-BOF plants. The analysis emphasizes a transition toward electric arc furnaces (EAF), green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI), and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), while leveraging existing global overcapacity to retire inefficient plants.

In 2020, global coal power capacity grew by 12.5 GW for the first time since 2015, driven primarily by China, which accounted for 76% of new commissions. While the US and EU saw record retirements, China's new capacity of 38.4 GW offset these gains. Meanwhile, South and Southeast Asian nations, including Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, significantly reduced their planned coal pipelines due to financing difficulties and the falling cost of renewables. The report concludes that current global trajectories remain far from the IPCC 1.5C pathway, which would require the cancellation or retirement of an additional 1,350 GW by 2030.

In 2020, a significant increase in coal plant development in China offset a global retreat from coal, leading to the first increase in global coal capacity since 2015. While China commissioned 38.4 GW of new capacity, the rest of the world saw a decline of 17.2 GW, driven by record retirements in the U.S. and EU27. South and Southeast Asian nations, including Indonesia, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Vietnam, announced plans to cut up to 62 GW of planned coal power due to falling renewable costs and financing difficulties. Despite these regional shifts, the report finds that global coal capacity remains far above the levels required to meet the IPCC 1.5 degree pathway, with an estimated 1,350 GW needing to be cancelled or retired.

In 2020, global coal-fired power capacity increased by 12.5 GW, driven primarily by China, which operated 38.4 GW of new capacity. This offset record closures in the US (11.3 GW) and EU27 (10.1 GW). While China's development grew as an economic stimulus during the pandemic, other Asian nations like Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the Philippines announced plans to cancel up to 62 GW of planned projects due to falling renewable costs and financing difficulties. The report concludes that current global trajectories remain far from the 1.5°C warming limit, with approximately 1,350 GW of capacity needing to be cancelled or closed to meet IPCC targets.

In 2020, global coal capacity increased by 12.5 GW, driven by China's addition of 38.4 GW, which offset 37.8 GW of closures globally, primarily in the US and EU. While China saw a surge in new plans and construction as economic stimulus, other regions—particularly South and Southeast Asia—experienced significant project cancellations due to funding difficulties and the rise of renewables. The report highlights a widening gap between current global trajectories and the IPCC 1.5°C pathway, noting that substantial further closures are required to meet climate goals.

The report highlights a global divergence in coal energy: while most of the world is decommissioning coal plants due to financial pressures and climate goals, China significantly increased its capacity in 2020. In 2020, China's new coal capacity of 38.4 GW nearly offset the total global decommissioning of 37.8 GW. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian and South Asian nations like Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the Philippines have moved to cancel or review plans for 62 GW of coal capacity. The US saw record decommissioning under Donald Trump, and the EU continues to phase out coal. However, the report warns that current trajectories, especially in China, make the IPCC's 1.5°C warming limit unattainable without massive cancellations of planned projects.

The report highlights a global divergence in coal power: while the US, EU, and parts of Asia are seeing record retirements and project cancellations, China's significant increase in new capacity in 2020 led to a net global growth of 12.5 GW. The document argues that current national trajectories remain far from the IPCC 1.5°C pathway, which would require the cancellation or retirement of 1,350 GW of capacity.

The report highlights a global divergence in coal power: while most of the world saw record closures and project cancellations, China experienced a significant boom in new capacity, offsetting global declines. In 2020, China's new coal capacity reached 38.4 GW, accounting for 76% of the global total. Conversely, the US and EU27 led in closures, with 11.3 GW and 10.1 GW retired respectively. In South and Southeast Asia, countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Bangladesh announced plans to cut up to 62 GW of planned coal capacity due to funding difficulties and the falling cost of renewables. The report also notes that global coal capacity is far exceeding the levels required to meet the IPCC's 1.5°C warming limit, with a projected 2,400 GW by 2030 compared to the required 1,100 GW.

The report finds that the EU is planning a 35% increase in gas import capacity through pipelines and LNG terminals, costing an estimated €87 billion. This expansion is argued to be unnecessary for security of supply and contradictory to the EU's climate goals, creating a significant risk of stranded assets and emissions lock-in. While public financing from the EIB and EU grants has historically catalyzed these projects, the report notes a shift toward phasing out such support, though private finance and initiatives like the Three Seas Initiative continue to pose risks of further fossil gas entrenchment.

The report identifies a $1 trillion stranded asset risk associated with 212,000 km of planned oil and gas pipeline expansions. It highlights that gas dominates new developments, with 82.7% of pipelines in development carrying gas. The U.S. and China are leading in capacity and length growth, respectively. The document argues that this expansion is incompatible with net-zero commitments and will lock in significant CO2 emissions, while noting a trend of increasing social and legal opposition to such projects.

The Gas Index finds that methane leakage across the U.S. natural gas supply chain is significantly more extensive than EPA estimates, particularly within city distribution systems and buildings. The report argues that replacing gas heating with electric heat pumps would reduce emissions in every city evaluated, with the greatest benefits occurring where electricity grids are decarbonized.

The report finds that global LNG terminal capacity under construction more than doubled between 2019 and 2020, increasing capital expenditure from $82.8 billion to $196.1 billion. This expansion is primarily driven by North American efforts to create new markets, but faces significant headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic, falling gas prices, and intensifying opposition. The authors argue that the 'bridge fuel' narrative is undermined by high methane leakage rates, with some estimates suggesting LNG-powered electricity can have a global warming impact up to 16% higher than coal. Furthermore, the report highlights a high failure rate for proposed export projects (61% since 2014) and the risk of stranded assets as renewables become more cost-competitive.

Between January 1 and June 15, 2020, China experienced a surge in coal power development, with 17.0 GW of capacity approved and 40.8 GW planned. This trend is driven by local government efforts to stimulate GDP and economic growth following the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than actual energy demand. The report highlights that China already faces an estimated 400 GW of excess coal capacity, and this new expansion contradicts global trends and IPCC targets to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Between January 1 and June 15, 2020, China saw a significant increase in coal plant development, with 249.6 GW of capacity under development, a 21% increase over end-2019. This boom is driven by economic stimulus efforts to offset COVID-19 impacts and a relaxation of the central government's 'traffic light policy', despite an existing estimated 400 GW of excess coal-fired capacity. While some new plants are intended for long-distance transmission to the coast, the majority risk exacerbating the country's overcapacity crisis and hindering global climate targets.

Between January 2017 and June 2020, Japanese public and private institutions provided at least US$23.4 billion in financing for LNG infrastructure across 10 countries. The report argues that the original rationales for this policy—energy security, climate friendliness, and economic viability—are now flawed due to the vulnerability of supply chains exposed by COVID-19, the high global warming potential of methane leakages, and the declining costs of renewable energy. It highlights that major Japanese banks (MUFG, Mizuho, and SMBC) provided the bulk of this funding, while five major trading companies saw a combined year-on-year profit drop of US$625 million in LNG-related businesses by March 2020. The document concludes that continuing to fund LNG infrastructure risks creating stranded assets and contradicts the UN's Principles for Responsible Banking.

Between January 2017 and June 2020, Japanese public and private institutions provided at least $23.4 billion in funding for LNG infrastructure across 10 countries. The report argues that this strategy, led by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), is flawed due to the high carbon footprint of LNG, the falling cost of renewable energy, and market volatility exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights significant financial risks, including potential stranded assets and declining profits for major Japanese trading houses, and calls for an immediate shift toward clean energy investments.

Japan has provided over US$17.5 billion in public finance for 21 GW of coal power abroad since 2013, often justifying this by claiming to support "best available technologies" like ultra-supercritical plants. However, the document asserts that these plants are still too polluting to meet Paris Agreement goals and that Japan's withdrawal would not prevent the use of inferior technologies, as China and South Korea are also major funders. Furthermore, the briefing notes that Japanese-funded overseas projects often use inferior emission controls compared to domestic standards and that coal is increasingly an unsafe investment compared to cheaper solar and wind power.