PEDAL TO THE METAL

The global steel sector, responsible for 11% of CO2 emissions, remains heavily reliant on carbon-intensive blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) pathways. While over 75% of global capacity is now covered by net-zero pledges, the report warns of significant stranded asset risks—estimated between 47 and 70 billion USD—due to the continued construction of BF-BOF plants. The analysis emphasizes a transition toward electric arc furnaces (EAF), green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI), and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), while leveraging existing global overcapacity to retire inefficient plants.

• The global steel industry is a major emitter, accounting for 11% of carbon dioxide emissions and 7% of greenhouse gas emissions globally.
• The blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) pathway is the most carbon-intensive method and dominates both current operations and new developments; it represents 61.3% of operating capacity and 65% of capacity under development where the technology is known.
• China, Japan, and India are the leading producers of steel. China alone accounts for 51% (1,023 mtpa) of the capacity tracked in the Global Steel Plant Tracker.
• Global steelmaking capacity is approximately 25% higher than actual production, creating an opportunity to retire older, polluting plants without disrupting supply. Overcapacity as a percentage of production in 2020 was 26.6% for EU27+UK, 23.7% for Japan, 20.0% for the US, and between 13.5% and 20.0% for China.
• The industry faces a stranded asset risk of 47–70 billion USD for carbon-intensive plants currently under development if low-emissions technologies reach commercial scale as projected.
• More than 75% of global steel capacity is now subject to net-zero or low-emissions commitments from countries or companies.
• Decarbonization requires shifting capacity to electric arc furnaces (EAF), outfitting remaining BF-BOFs with best available technology (BAT), and scaling novel technologies like hydrogen-DRI and CCUS.
• Green hydrogen-based DRI is a key net-zero option, but no commercial-scale plants are currently operating. A pilot project, HYBRIT, began in Sweden in August 2020 with a goal of a 1 Mt H2 / year plant by 2025.
• Carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS) is an available technology for natural gas-based DRI, with the Emirates Steel plant in Abu Dhabi operating a project since 2016 capable of capturing 800 ttpa CO2.

APA

Swalec, C., & Shearer, C. (2021). PEDAL TO THE METAL. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/Pedal-to-the-Metal_11.pdf

Chicago

Swalec, Caitlin, and Christine Shearer. PEDAL TO THE METAL. Global Energy Monitor, 2021. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/Pedal-to-the-Metal_11.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Swalec |first1=Caitlin |last2=Shearer |first2=Christine |title=PEDAL TO THE METAL |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=June 2021 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/Pedal-to-the-Metal_11.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{swalec2021pedal, author = {Swalec, Caitlin and Shearer, Christine}, title = {{PEDAL TO THE METAL}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/Pedal-to-the-Metal_11.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }