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Indonesia's coal industry has seen significant growth, leading to a surge in coal mine methane (CMM) emissions that are largely underreported by the government and industry. Ember estimates 2024 CMM emissions at 722 kt CH4, far exceeding the official figure of 168 kt CH4. This discrepancy is attributed to ineffective monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) frameworks and the exclusion of high-emission underground mines from official estimates. The report warns that the development of large underground mines, specifically one in South Kalimantan, will cause total CMM emissions to increase by approximately 25% by 2030, even if national coal production declines by 14%.

Indonesia's coal sector is facing a downturn as production records in 2024 are met with declining export demand from China and India and rising production costs. This oversupply has eroded company profits and state non-tax revenues. Simultaneously, coal mine methane (CMM) emissions are significantly underreported and are projected to rise by 25% by 2030, driven by the expansion of underground mining in South Kalimantan. The report recommends a moratorium on new mines, improved methane monitoring, and a just transition framework for coal-dependent regions.

The report details a downturn in Indonesia's coal sector, where a strategy of increasing production volumes to offset falling global prices is contributing to market oversupply. This trend, combined with rising operational costs from inflation and new biodiesel mandates (B40), has led to a decline in net income for producers. Consequently, state non-tax revenues and provincial fiscal transfers to coal-dependent regions like East Kalimantan and South Sumatra have dropped significantly since the 2022 price peak.

Global renewable capacity additions are forecast to reach a record 793 GW in 2025, driven largely by solar and China's deployment. While the actual annual growth rate of additions from 2023 to 2025 (29%) has exceeded the 21% required to triple capacity by 2030, IEA forecasts suggest a potential 15% shortfall in capacity and a 28% shortfall in generation by 2030, primarily due to lags in wind and hydro. National targets remain insufficient, aiming for just over a doubling of capacity (7,793 GW) rather than a tripling, with solar targets particularly lagging behind actual deployment trends.

The briefing outlines three primary policy areas to scale demand flexibility in Europe: accelerating smart meter rollout, implementing time-of-use tariffs, and removing barriers to automation and aggregation. It highlights the need for updated technical standards by 2026 and national objectives by 2027 to overcome slow implementation of EU rules.

The report finds that 27 countries have set national offshore wind targets, with global capacity projected to almost triple from 83 GW in 2024 to 238 GW by 2030. While targets have driven market growth, many countries are expected to miss their 2030 goals due to cost inflation, supply chain pressures, and permitting delays. The analysis highlights a significant gap between current projections and the 413 GW required by 2030 to align with the UAE consensus for tripling renewable capacity.

India is generally on track to meet its NEP 2032 capacity mix, with solar, hydro, and coal well-positioned to reach targets. However, onshore wind additions must accelerate, and nuclear capacity is likely to fall short due to long lead times and a limited near-term pipeline. Battery and pumped hydro storage are expanding rapidly to support renewables integration.

India's coal fleet is shifting from baseload to flexible balancing to integrate rising solar and wind energy. By FY 2031–32, coal plants will need to operate closer to their technical minimums, with a projected average plant load factor (PLF) drop from 69% to 55%. This transition will disproportionately impact high-cost, less efficient units, suggesting that the 35 GW of coal capacity currently under construction is sufficient for supply security without further additions.

The report analyzes the rising effective costs of coal power in India due to underutilisation, which is expected to increase average tariffs by roughly 25% as PLFs fall. It highlights that fixed costs drive 85% of this increase, making new coal capacity economically inferior to Firm and Dispatchable Renewable Energy (FDRE). The author concludes that India's 2032 power goals can be met with the ~35 GW of coal already in the pipeline, rendering further expansion unnecessary and financially risky for distribution companies (DISCOMs).

The document outlines strategies for India's power sector transition, emphasizing the need to improve coal plant flexibility, reform power purchase agreements, and scale up energy storage to manage solar integration and grid reliability.

The report argues that as India expands solar and wind capacity, coal's role will shift from baseload provider to a flexible balancing resource, leading to lower plant load factors (PLFs) and higher effective costs. By FY 2031-32, coal-based electricity is projected to be roughly 25% costlier than in FY 2024-25. The analysis suggests that the ~35 GW of coal capacity currently under construction is sufficient for reliability, making further coal expansion uneconomical compared to firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) and storage options.

The document outlines the views of TSOs from Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia regarding EU grid development. While generally supportive of the European Grids Package, these operators express low confidence in EU-level coordination, citing administrative burdens and a perception of Western European dominance in policy shaping. Key barriers identified include outdated infrastructure, regulatory fragmentation, and complex access to EU funding mechanisms like the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF). The TSOs emphasize the need for more practical, inclusive reforms that respect national sovereignty and address specific security risks for countries on the EU's external borders.

The report examines the paradox of Indonesia's nickel sector, where a critical mineral for the clean energy transition is processed using carbon-intensive captive coal. It identifies a significant expansion of captive coal capacity, projected to exceed 32 GW by 2031, driven by resource nationalism and the need for stable power in remote regions. The document contrasts 'Green Opportunism' (short-term gains via coal) with 'Green Developmentalism' (long-term competitiveness via decarbonisation) and proposes specific roles for Chinese stakeholders to support a sustainable transition through technical assistance, green finance, and market-shaping rules.

Türkiye aims for 120 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2035, but grid capacity limits and bureaucratic hurdles pose significant obstacles. The report suggests redirecting the $8.7 billion allocated for domestic coal subsidies toward grid modernisation and storage-integrated projects. Key strategies for increasing capacity include deploying rooftop solar (with a 120 GW potential), floating and hybrid solar at dammed hydroelectric plants, and utilizing a 33.1 GW stock of storage-integrated projects to maintain grid balance.

The report analyzes a new purchase guarantee for domestic coal power plants in Turkey, which will provide a price of 75 USD/MWh for 60% of their electricity production until 2030. This mechanism is estimated to cost 8.7 billion USD and represents a 12% increase over the average sales price of the last year. The document highlights that these plants will continue to receive support through the existing capacity mechanism regardless of whether they generate electricity, meaning the new guarantee exceeds the total costs determined by TEİAŞ by 27%.

Turkey aims for 120 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2035, but grid capacity limits and bureaucratic hurdles pose significant risks. The report highlights that the $8.7 billion earmarked for domestic coal support through 2030 exceeds the 362 billion TL (approx. $5.7 billion) needed for a five-year grid renewal plan by 53%. To meet the 76.9 GW solar target, Turkey must install an average of 5.3 GW annually over the next decade, utilizing floating solar on dams, hybrid systems, storage, and rooftop solar to reduce grid pressure and ensure system stability.

As of 2025, solar energy is the cheapest source of electricity generation in Türkiye, with a Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of $43 USD/MWh. This is 21% cheaper than the average cost of generating electricity from existing domestic coal plants ($55 USD/MWh) and 52% cheaper than a new domestic coal plant, which is estimated at $90 USD/MWh. Over the last decade, solar installation costs in Türkiye fell by 77%, contributing to a 69% reduction in LCOE. In contrast, the average cost for domestic coal generation varies significantly based on plant efficiency and coal calorific value, ranging from $32 USD/MWh to $86 USD/MWh. Furthermore, purchase prices for wind and solar projects under recent YEKA tenders are less than half of the $75 USD/MWh provided to domestic coal power plants until 2030.

The report analyzes a Turkish government incentive providing a $75 USD/MWh purchase guarantee for 60% of electricity generated by domestic coal plants until 2030, estimated to cost $8.7 billion. It highlights that this guarantee is 12% higher than recent average market prices and 27% higher than the total costs determined by the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEİAŞ). Additionally, these plants continue to receive payments under a capacity mechanism that covers fixed and variable costs regardless of generation.

Türkiye has pledged a purchase guarantee of $75 USD/MWh for domestic coal power plants through 2030, an incentive estimated to cost at least $8.7 billion over four years. This subsidy is 12% higher than the average sales price of $67 USD/MWh and 36% above the average electricity generation cost of domestic coal ($55 USD/MWh). The report finds that solar energy is now the cheapest source of electricity in Türkiye, with a Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of $43 USD/MWh, representing a 69% decrease over the last decade. In contrast, a new domestic coal plant would have an LCOE of approximately $90 USD/MWh. The $8.7 billion coal subsidy is 53% higher than the ₺362 billion (approximately $5.7 billion) budget allocated by TEİAŞ for grid upgrades between 2024 and 2028. The report argues that achieving the 2035 target of 120 GW of total installed wind and solar capacity requires upgrading the grid and removing bureaucratic barriers to rooftop, floating, hybrid, and storage-integrated solar projects.

Solar energy has become the cheapest electricity generation method in Turkey, with the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for new solar plants falling to 43 USD/MWh. This is 21% lower than the average cost of existing domestic coal plants (55 USD/MWh) and significantly cheaper than the projected 90 USD/MWh for new domestic coal plants. While the Turkish National Energy Plan targets 1.7 GW of new domestic coal by 2030, the document highlights that solar installation costs have dropped by 77% over the last decade, making new solar plants 52% cheaper than new domestic coal plants.