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The report examines how fossil fuels correlate with inter-state wars, militarism, and internal violence, while advocating for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to manage a just transition to renewable energy. It highlights the 'peacetime-wartime continuum' of violence, noting that fossil fuel revenues often fund conflicts and that extraction sites frequently experience human rights abuses and gender-based violence. The document calls for a treaty based on non-proliferation, a fair phase-out, and a global just transition to prevent the replication of colonial extractivist patterns in the renewable energy sector.

The document examines TotalEnergies' use of the bond market to secure long-term financing, noting a trend toward abnormally long maturities extending to 2064. It argues that these bonds provide the company with unrestricted funds to pursue fossil fuel expansion, contrary to IEA Net Zero scenarios, while creating systemic and financial risks for the banks and investors involved. The report identifies specific financial institutions facilitating these issuances and calls for a total cessation of support for companies developing new oil and gas projects.

The document analyzes TotalEnergies' reliance on the bond market, specifically highlighting a trend toward abnormally long maturities (up to 2064) that secures funding for decades of fossil fuel projects. It argues that these bonds provide the company with total freedom in fund allocation, enabling the expansion of oil and gas projects in 53 countries despite global climate goals. The briefing identifies a 'loophole' where banks facilitate these emissions to avoid having the debt on their own balance sheets, and warns investors of the systemic risk of 'stranded assets' as the world transitions to renewable energy.

The document examines how the competition between the US, China, and Russia affects African states, noting a shift toward non-alignment and the diversification of international relations to avoid becoming geopolitical pawns. It argues that African agency can be strengthened by empowering the African Union (AU), leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and demanding partnerships based on mutual benefit rather than great-power rivalry. The Lobito Corridor is cited as a model where competing interests can coexist to provide tangible regional benefits.

The document examines the gap between high popular support for democracy in Africa and the low satisfaction with its actual implementation. It highlights a trend of disputed elections and popularly celebrated coups as symptoms of leadership failure and the inability of democratic systems to provide basic socio-economic rights. Using examples from Zimbabwe and Gabon, it argues that when elections fail to reflect the will of the people or improve living conditions, the stability of democratic institutions is threatened.

The paper examines the tension between SADC's economic-driven digital agenda and the protection of fundamental human rights. It identifies systemic threats including state-sanctioned internet shutdowns, surveillance, and algorithmic bias, while analyzing the influence of digital geopolitics involving the US, China, and the EU. The authors advocate for the recognition of the 'right to Internet access' and the adoption of 'data justice' frameworks to ensure an inclusive digital future by 2035.

The document examines the tension between African developmental goals for critical minerals and the geopolitical priorities of external powers, specifically the US-led G7 and China. It highlights China's early-mover advantage in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zimbabwe, while noting that G7 counter-initiatives often prioritize supply chain security over African local value addition. The authors argue that African nations must develop comprehensive national and regional strategies to avoid repeating colonial extraction patterns and to leverage their resources for sustainable industrialisation.

Japan is transitioning its Africa strategy from Official Development Assistance (ODA) toward private sector-led investment, specifically targeting critical minerals and green energy. This shift is driven by strategic competition with China, particularly regarding supply chain security for rare earth elements and the G7's desire to provide alternatives to Chinese infrastructure loans. While the Japanese government is actively promoting this 'business-based' approach through initiatives like the Green Growth Initiative for Africa and the Minerals Security Partnership, the transition is hindered by high risk perception among Japanese companies.

The OvaHerero people of Kaokoland, semi-nomadic pastoralists in Namibia and Angola, developed a Biocultural Community Protocol (BCP) between March 2022 and June 2024. Supported by Natural Justice and International Rivers, the process involved six phases: securing community buy-in, capacity building, research across 34 villages and four museums, iterative community validation, translation into the OtjiHerero language, and official launch. The BCP serves as a tool to safeguard traditional knowledge against threats from climate change and infrastructure development, and to ensure free, prior, and informed consent for external parties engaging in research, tourism, or development on their territories.

The document argues that the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) reduces the effectiveness of traditional corporate tax incentives in SEZs, such as tax holidays and reduced rates, for large multinational enterprises. It suggests that countries should shift from profit-based tax competition toward improving the overall investment environment and utilizing non-fiscal incentives. The brief also warns of legal risks associated with reforming these incentives, specifically regarding investor-state dispute settlements (ISDS) and stabilization clauses, while recommending that SEZs be leveraged to support the energy transition and renewable energy investment.

The document analyzes how the OECD's Pillar Two GloBE rules, which mandate a 15% minimum effective tax rate for large multinationals, undermine traditional SEZ tax incentives like corporate income tax exemptions. It argues that such incentives are often ineffective for long-term competitiveness and recommends that countries shift toward non-fiscal incentives, cost-based incentives, and sustainable energy investments to avoid revenue loss to other jurisdictions.

The report analyzes the competition between Western and Chinese narratives in Africa, specifically debunking the 'debt-trap' narrative and arguing that African states exercise strategic agency by viewing both the US and China as viable partners rather than choosing one in a zero-sum game.

The lecture calls for a 'solidarity pact' akin to a Marshall Plan to support low- and middle-income countries facing a 'historic reversal in development' due to the combined impacts of climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. The author argues that the current global financial system is 'not fit for purpose,' citing structural biases in ESG scores and a debt crisis where the most vulnerable nations spend more on debt servicing than they receive in climate finance. The speech advocates for replacing high-interest loans with grants and concessional finance, leveraging new technologies like blockchain for decentralized energy and insurance, and empowering women and youth to drive a just transition to low-carbon economies.

The document outlines the necessity of a Global Just Transition to phase out fossil fuels by 2050, emphasizing the disproportionate economic burden on developing nations. It proposes a framework for financing this transition through new multilateral funds, the redirection of USD 5.9 trillion in annual fossil fuel subsidies, and systemic reforms to debt, taxation, and international financial institutions.

The report finds that Chevron's strategy prioritizes oil and gas expansion and shareholder returns over sustainable energy. Its projected 2030 production levels and LNG capacity exceed NZE requirements, while its diversification efforts are described as marginal and focused on unsustainable energies like bioenergy and fossil-fuel-based hydrogen.

The report finds that Eni's investment strategy prioritizes oil and gas expansion and shareholder returns over renewable energy, leading to projected 2030 production levels that significantly exceed NZE requirements. While Eni is diversifying into renewables and bioenergy, these remain marginal compared to its fossil fuel core, and its decarbonization plan relies heavily on unproven carbon capture and offset technologies.

The document explores the potential of superhot rock energy in Africa, highlighting its capacity to provide massive amounts of carbon-free electricity and its potential to drive economic growth and energy access.

The document identifies a short-term opportunity for African gas producers to fill global supply gaps caused by the war in Ukraine, but warns that new infrastructure investments face a high risk of becoming stranded assets as the world moves toward net-zero.

The European Union has signed Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to secure critical raw materials (CRM) essential for green and digital transitions. These agreements aim to reduce the EU's heavy reliance on imports from quasi-monopolistic suppliers, particularly China. However, the paper identifies significant obstacles, including the DRC and Zambia's lack of comprehensive national CRM policies, high levels of corruption and political instability, and the continued dominance of Chinese mining interests in both countries. The author argues that for these partnerships to succeed, the EU must prioritize industrial and economic alignment over geopolitical security agendas and find ways to de-risk investments for the European private sector, potentially by strengthening state-owned mining companies in the partner countries.

The document analyzes Russia's strategic pivot toward Africa as a means to diversify partners and evade Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. It argues that while Africa is not a central priority for the Kremlin, it serves as a critical 'theater' for projecting power, securing natural resources, and challenging US-led unipolarity. The paper details Russia's approach across several sectors, including arms sales, nuclear energy, and mining, while highlighting the role of the Wagner Group in providing security in exchange for resource access. It concludes that Russia leverages African support at the UN to maintain its status as a global power and to promote a multipolar international system.