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The document examines how India is managing an energy price shock resulting from conflict in Iran. To control inflation, the Indian government has absorbed costs by cutting fuel excise duties and increasing fertilizer subsidies, costing an estimated 590 billion Indian rupees between March and May 2026. The brief warns that continued shock absorption may drain budgets for grid modernization and renewable energy, while passing costs to the public would disproportionately harm low-income households through indirect inflationary effects on food and transport.

The briefing finds that low to middle income groups in Sweden were most affected by the 2022 energy price crisis, with an average welfare impact of -3.8%. It highlights that sparsely populated areas suffered greater impacts than densely populated ones. The analysis suggests that direct compensation targeting income deciles 1 to 5, specifically deciles 3 to 5, would be more effective than fuel tax reductions, which primarily benefited high-income groups and risked undermining long-term climate goals.

The research examines how low-carbon transition policies in Sweden's food and transport sectors may unevenly affect consumers based on wealth, access, and health. It identifies a significant portion of the population at risk of adverse impacts due to car dependency and limited ability to absorb price increases for carbon-intensive goods.

The research examines the distribution of pro-climate lobbying groups in the US using 2017 data. It identifies a 'threefold climate advocacy gap,' noting that pro-climate representation is low relative to other energy interest groups, in Republican-leaning states, and in states with high total carbon emissions.

The document examines the socio-economic risks associated with the EU's 'Fit for 55' package, specifically the introduction of ETS2. It argues that carbon pricing alone is insufficient to drive decarbonization and may disproportionately affect low-income rural households. While the Social Climate Fund provides a mechanism for compensation and investment, the authors suggest a broader approach including digitalization, subnational capacity building, and structural inequality reforms is necessary for a fair transition.

The report finds that LPG subsidies in Jharkhand are highly regressive, with wealthier households receiving a disproportionate share of benefits due to their higher consumption levels. Testing of volumetric targeting and differential subsidies for Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) beneficiaries failed to significantly improve subsidy incidence, although volumetric limits reduced overall government expenditure. The authors recommend mapping subsidy equity across India and exploring smarter indicators, such as motorbike ownership, to better identify and exclude better-off consumers.

The report finds that global carbon emissions are starkly unequal, with the richest 10% of the population responsible for nearly half of all emissions in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, the richest 10% accounted for 46% of the total growth in absolute emissions. The analysis shows a shift where within-country emissions inequality has risen while between-country inequality has fallen. Future projections suggest that even under more equal socio-economic scenarios, the poorest 50% of the population will have very limited access to the remaining global carbon budget, as the wealthiest groups have already depleted a disproportionate share.

The report examines the high cost and regressive nature of India's energy consumption subsidies, which totaled INR 87,830 crore (USD 13.1 billion) in 2017. It highlights a critical knowledge gap, as the last comprehensive distributional analysis is based on 2011 census data. The document proposes several targeting mechanisms, including opt-out schemes, volumetric quotas, categorical targeting based on social or geographic criteria, and the use of proxy means testing via income and asset data. It specifically analyzes the Ujjwala scheme's success in connection targeting and the challenges of sustained LPG usage among the poor due to ongoing consumption costs.

The report analyzes the regressive nature of the 2018 VAT increase in South Africa, which reduced disposable income for poor households. It evaluates existing zero-rating as generally effective and proposes 23 new categories for zero-rating—including baby food, school uniforms, and public medical services—to support vulnerable groups, particularly female-headed households. The report estimates that while expanding zero-rating would cost R17bn in revenue, a 25% luxury VAT rate on high-end goods could recover approximately R9.6bn of that loss.

The study evaluates the impact of financing renewable energy through electricity surcharges versus alternative tax sources in Spain. Using a combined computable general equilibrium (CGE) and microsimulation (MS) model, the authors find that electricity surcharges are regressive, disproportionately affecting low-income households and vulnerable groups such as retirees. While exemptions for producers protect industrial competitiveness, they exacerbate the burden on households. Conversely, financing through lump-sum transfers or value-added taxes (VAT) is found to be more effective in reducing regressive effects and safeguarding welfare for low-income groups without significantly harming overall economic output.

The report finds that India's LPG subsidy system is highly regressive, primarily benefiting wealthy urban households while the poorest fifth of the population receives less than 1% of the total direct subsidy. While an initial household cylinder cap of six in September 2012 temporarily limited subsidy growth and improved distribution, subsequent increases of the cap to nine and then 12 cylinders effectively reversed these gains. The Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) program is criticized for failing to decouple subsidy receipt from fuel consumption and for introducing administrative inefficiencies without improving equity or fiscal responsibility.

The study finds that taxes on local air pollutants are more regressive than those on climate change pollutants because they increase the prices of basic necessities, such as food and electricity, which occupy a larger share of low-income household budgets. While a CO2 tax was found to be nearly proportional across income deciles, the LAP tax disproportionately affected the poorest households. Revenue recycling through reduced social security contributions improved overall economic efficiency but tended to worsen the distributional equity, particularly for the GCC tax scenario.

The report finds that energy subsidies in Bangladesh increased sharply between FY2010 and FY2012, driven by rising import costs and increased reliance on liquid fuel for electricity generation. It identifies that poor agricultural households are particularly vulnerable to kerosene and electricity price changes, while the transport and power sectors are the most energy-intensive production areas. The authors argue that current universal subsidies are inefficient and recommend targeted support, improved tariff structures, and a transparent phase-out strategy to free up resources for essential services and renewable energy.

The research develops MARKAL-Equity to assess how different income terciles in Canada respond to the energy price increases associated with meeting Kyoto targets. Findings indicate that low-income households are the most vulnerable, experiencing the greatest reductions in energy service demand and consumption, and lacking the financial capacity to switch to more efficient technologies compared to middle- and high-income groups.

The report finds that while electrification will increase electricity use, total energy spending for Canadian households is expected to decline. However, the costs of expanding electricity infrastructure may fall regressively, disproportionately impacting lower-income households. The authors analyze rate-design changes and government funding mechanisms as tools to improve equity, concluding that means-tested fixed charges and progressive tax-based funding can insulate vulnerable populations from rising costs.

The document examines the distributional effects of COVID-19 macroeconomic policies in Nigeria and Uganda, finding that 'neutral' policy designs often exacerbate existing inequalities. It highlights the exclusion of the urban poor, women, and the informal sector from cash transfers and financial relief, while noting that monetary policy easing has not translated into lower lending rates for high-risk borrowers. The brief recommends leveraging electronic platforms for cash distribution, increasing investment in renewable energy for low-income households, and improving long-term tax capacity to fund social protection.