Towards Assessing the Distributional Impacts of Meeting Kyoto Targets in Canada

The research develops MARKAL-Equity to assess how different income terciles in Canada respond to the energy price increases associated with meeting Kyoto targets. Findings indicate that low-income households are the most vulnerable, experiencing the greatest reductions in energy service demand and consumption, and lacking the financial capacity to switch to more efficient technologies compared to middle- and high-income groups.

• Low-income households in Canada spend a significantly larger portion of their budget on energy than high-income households; specifically, the percentage of total expenditure spent on energy by low-income households is four times greater than that of high-income households.
• Low-income households are more sensitive to energy price changes than higher-income groups, being twice as responsive to price changes affecting space heating as high-income households.
• Under the Kyoto target scenario, the residential sector's total emissions are projected to decrease by 28 Mt, or 77 per cent, by 2020.
• Income differentiation reveals that the burden of meeting Kyoto targets is not evenly distributed; the low-income group experiences a greater loss in demand for energy services (up to 16% for space heating in old apartments in British Columbia) compared to the high-income group (up to 10%).
• Low-income households are unable to fundamentally change their fuel consumption patterns or technology choices in response to carbon constraints, unlike other income groups who switch to more efficient options.
• The middle-income group tends to adopt less efficient technologies, specifically wood stoves, which results in a slight increase in their overall energy consumption by 2020 despite a reduction in their demand for energy services.
• High-income households are the most responsive in changing technologies to adapt to carbon constraints, showing a clear preference for electric space heating.
• Solar space heating emerges as a technology under carbon constraints, but the model indicates it is primarily adopted by the low-income group in the simulation, highlighting a need for budget constraints in the model to reflect actual buying power.
• By 2020, the low-income group faces the most severe reduction in total residential energy consumption, decreasing by 13 per cent, while the middle-income group sees the smallest reduction at 4 per cent.
• The study recommends transitional policies specifically targeted at low-income households, such as financial assistance to purchase more efficient space heating technologies, to mitigate the impact of increased energy prices.

APA

Guertin, C., Loulou, R., & Kanudia, A. (2003). Towards Assessing the Distributional Impacts of Meeting Kyoto Targets in Canada. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/energy_markal_equity.pdf

Chicago

Guertin, Chantal, Richard Loulou, and Amit Kanudia. Towards Assessing the Distributional Impacts of Meeting Kyoto Targets in Canada. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2003. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/energy_markal_equity.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Guertin |first1=Chantal |last2=Loulou |first2=Richard |last3=Kanudia |first3=Amit |title=Towards Assessing the Distributional Impacts of Meeting Kyoto Targets in Canada |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=2003 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/energy_markal_equity.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{guertin2003towards, author = {Guertin, Chantal and Loulou, Richard and Kanudia, Amit}, title = {{Towards Assessing the Distributional Impacts of Meeting Kyoto Targets in Canada}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2003}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/energy_markal_equity.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }