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The paper examines the fragile peace process in Angola following the 1994 Lusaka Protocol, arguing that UNITA's leadership, particularly Jonas Savimbi, has consistently procrastinated on disarmament while maintaining military capabilities through illicit arms networks. It details the complex international supply chains providing weapons to UNITA and analyzes the strategic positions of both the MPLA-led government and UNITA. The author concludes that while a military offensive by the government is possible, it may not end the conflict due to UNITA's deep-rooted guerrilla infrastructure and the region's fluid political instability.

The document analyzes the escalation of the Sinhalese-Tamil ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka from 1983 to 1986, focusing on the 'criminal fire'—reprisals and atrocities—committed by both government security forces and Tamil guerrillas. It argues that the conflict has evolved from social discrimination into an ethnic war where the conduct of armed forces actively reproduces the violence. The author proposes a two-step resolution process: first, the application of the Law of Armed Conflict and Human Rights Law to de-escalate military violence, followed by the use of human rights law to manage the political struggle. The report suggests international assistance from the UN, the Commonwealth, and the Red Cross, and advocates for radical reform of the Sri Lankan police and army to make them representative of both ethnic communities.

The document examines the role of illegal mining in the conflict within the Eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It analyzes the failure of a 2010-2011 mining ban and the potential risks associated with the US Dodd-Frank Act's 'conflict minerals' legislation, such as economic losses and increased smuggling. The author contends that illegal mining is a manifestation rather than a primary cause of conflict, suggesting that sustainable peace requires addressing deeper issues through measures like decentralization to improve local governance and infrastructure.

The report analyzes the transition from a state-controlled arms trade to a commercialized black market. It identifies the end of the Cold War, the proliferation of production capacity, and the emergence of 'regional arms supermarkets' as key drivers. The author argues that traditional supply-side controls, such as end-user certificates, have become ineffective due to corruption and the massive volume of second-hand equipment. Furthermore, the document details how insurgent groups now finance their own weaponry through parallel economies and transnational networks, reducing their dependence on state sponsors.

The research finds that while Libyan arms significantly enhanced the military capacity of insurgents in Mali and the Sinai, the overall proliferation was less destabilizing and widespread than initially feared, abating after 2013 due to international interventions and increased domestic demand within Libya.

The Afghan Peace and Reintegration Program (APRP), launched in late 2010, has achieved limited results due to rushed implementation, poor coordination, and the absence of a coherent political strategy. While designed to entice low-level insurgents with security and jobs, the program has struggled with slow fund disbursement, inadequate vetting, and a failure to provide genuine security for reintegrees. A significant portion of those reintegrated are from northern and western provinces and may not be genuine insurgents. Furthermore, the tendency to enroll reintegrees in the Afghan Local Police (ALP) may exacerbate local rivalries rather than foster peace. The author argues that reintegration cannot succeed as a standalone military tool and must be embedded in a broader reconciliation process that addresses high-level leadership and systemic grievances.