ANGOLA - Endgame or Stalemate

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the precarious state of the peace process in Angola as of April 1998. It examines the historical roots of the conflict, the failure of previous peace accords, the clandestine networks supplying weapons to UNITA, and the potential scenarios for the country's future, ranging from renewed military conflict to a fragile political transition.

• The Angolan civil war is rooted in uneven colonial development and the legacy of the trans-Atlantic slave trade, which created social and political cleavages between the Mbundu-speaking peoples of Luanda and the interior.
• The Bicesse Peace Accords of May 1991 and the subsequent 1992 elections failed to secure peace because the UN verification mission (UNAVEM II) was inadequate, lacking provisions for discovering hidden arms or penalizing non-compliance. This led to a resumption of intensified fighting after UNITA claimed the elections were fraudulent.
• Despite the Lusaka Protocol of 1994 and international sanctions, UNITA has maintained its military capability by utilizing clandestine arms networks and recirculating existing weapon stocks from other African conflicts, particularly from Zambia and Mozambique.
• UNITA's arms procurement involves a complex global network of financiers and middlemen based in Europe, Asia, and North America, often using false bills of lading and transshipment through countries like Tanzania, Uganda, and the DRC to evade embargoes.
• UNITA continues to fund its operations through the illicit trade of diamonds and gold from its territories, with some shipments moving through Burundi to Antwerp.
• As of early 1998, UNITA appears to be preparing for a potential return to guerrilla warfare by revamping its traditional military headquarters at Jamba in Cuando Cubango Province, while simultaneously maintaining a political presence in Luanda to avoid sanctions.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ANGOLA - Endgame or Stalemate. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/paper30.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ANGOLA - Endgame or Stalemate. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/paper30.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ANGOLA - Endgame or Stalemate |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/paper30.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndangola, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ANGOLA - Endgame or Stalemate}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/paper30.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }