The Rise of the Modern Arms Black Market and the Fall of Supply-Side Control

The report analyzes the transition from a state-controlled arms trade to a commercialized black market. It identifies the end of the Cold War, the proliferation of production capacity, and the emergence of 'regional arms supermarkets' as key drivers. The author argues that traditional supply-side controls, such as end-user certificates, have become ineffective due to corruption and the massive volume of second-hand equipment. Furthermore, the document details how insurgent groups now finance their own weaponry through parallel economies and transnational networks, reducing their dependence on state sponsors.

• Traditional supply-side controls, specifically the end-user certificate system, collapsed by the 1980s, becoming a 'farce' where certificates were often forged or sold by corrupt officials for personal gain.
• The collapse of the Soviet Union and the reunification of Germany created a massive 'yard sale' of military equipment, dumping vast quantities of high-quality East Bloc weaponry onto the black market.

APA

Naylor, R. T., & Mathiak, L. (n.d.). The Rise of the Modern Arms Black Market and the Fall of Supply-Side Control. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SNAYLOR.PDF

Chicago

Naylor, R T, and Lucy Mathiak. The Rise of the Modern Arms Black Market and the Fall of Supply-Side Control. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SNAYLOR.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Naylor |first1=R T |last2=Mathiak |first2=Lucy |title=The Rise of the Modern Arms Black Market and the Fall of Supply-Side Control |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SNAYLOR.PDF |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{naylorndrise, author = {Naylor, R T and Mathiak, Lucy}, title = {{The Rise of the Modern Arms Black Market and the Fall of Supply-Side Control}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/SNAYLOR.PDF}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }